气候情景驱动下秦巴山区植被生长动态模拟与气候驱动机制

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.148

Abstract

Abstract:

The Qinling-Daba Mountains are located at the convergence of the climatic transition zone between northern and southern China and the ecotone between warm-temperate and subtropical regions. As a climate-sensitive area, investigating the coupling relationships between vegetation and climate in this area is critical for understanding the evolutionary mechanisms of ecosystems under climate change. This study employs a multiple linear regression model to predict kernel normalized difference vegetation index (kNDVI) values under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios from 2024 to 2100, based on MODIS data and climatic factor datasets from 2001 to 2023. The Theil Sen Median estimator and Mann-Kendall test were used to analyze spatiotemporal trends of vegetation changes, and path analysis was applied to dissect the driving mechanisms of key climatic factors. The results reveal that (1) Temperature is the dominant factor driving vegetation changes, spatially covering 67.27% of the study area, with its positive effects concentrated in the Qinling-Daba Mountain region, whereas the impacts of evapotranspiration and precipitation exhibit significant spatial heterogeneity. (2) The vegetation kNDVI increased by 0.1 from 2001 to 2023, demonstrating a “rapid initial growth followed by a gradual slowdown” trend, with degradation areas concentrated in low-altitude urbanized zones and high-altitude regions constrained by water-heat limitations. (3) Future scenario simulations reveal that vegetation dynamics stabilize under SSP119, whereas SSP585 demonstrates divergent trends, with the direct inhibitory effects of evapotranspiration coexisting with indirect facilitative effects driven by increased temperatures. (4) The replenishment efficiency of precipitation for vegetation diminishes with increasing climate extremes, whereas the direct climatic forcing of temperature significantly intensifies under elevated emission scenarios. (5) Regional vegetation responses indicate significant spatial heterogeneity, requiring differentiated ecological restoration strategies. These strategies should prioritize high-altitude vulnerable zones, low-altitude areas disturbed by human activities, and evapotranspiration-sensitive regions in the central-eastern sectors. This study reveals the nonlinear response of vegetation to climate change in the Qinling-Daba Mountains, thereby confirming the ecological stability advantages of the low-carbon pathway (SSP119) and providing spatially optimized strategies for vegetation conservation and carbon sequestration enhancement under regional carbon neutrality goals.

Key words: kNDVI, SSPs, the Qinling-Daba Mountains, climate factors, multiple linear regression analysis, trend analysis

GAO Jintao, ZHANG Chong, JING Jing, ZHONG Chunxia, YANG Ruixia. Simulation of vegetation growth dynamics and climatic driving mechanisms in the Qinling-Daba Mountains under climate scenarios[J].Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(2): 316-331.

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β	Z	趋势特征
β>0	\|Z\|≥2.58	极显著增加
	1.96≤\|Z\|<2.58	显著增加
	\|Z\|<1.96	不显著增加
β=0	Z	无变化
β<0	\|Z\|<1.96	不显著减少
	1.96≤\|Z\|<2.58	显著减少
	\|Z\|≥2.58	极显著减少

相关性	蒸散发		降水		气温		占比总和/%
相关性	面积/km²	占比/%	面积/km²	占比/%	面积/km²	占比/%	占比总和/%
正影响	31382	10.09	27922	8.98	159638	51.34	70.41
负影响	39884	12.83	2589	0.83	49551	15.93	29.59
总和	71266	22.92	30511	9.81	209189	67.27	100.00

变化类型	2001—2023年		2024—2100年SSP119		2024—2100年SSP245		2024—2100年SSP585
变化类型	面积/km²	占比/%	面积/km²	占比/%	面积/km²	占比/%	面积/km²	占比/%
极显著增加	234525	75.42	9512	3.06	169609	54.54	183585	59.04
显著增加	29988	9.64	12141	3.90	16161	5.20	7610	2.45
不显著增加	36169	11.63	188182	60.52	47201	15.18	21594	6.94
不显著减少	8133	2.62	98003	31.52	29646	9.53	18526	5.96
显著减少	1043	0.34	1330	0.43	6257	2.01	5208	1.67
极显著减少	1108	0.36	1798	0.58	42092	13.54	74443	23.94

Simulation of vegetation growth dynamics and climatic driving mechanisms in the Qinling-Daba Mountains under climate scenarios

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