基于归一化植被指数的艾比湖湿地国家级自然保护区自然植被保护恢复成效评估

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.002

Abstract

Abstract:

Ebinur Lake Wetland National Nature Reserve is an important ecological barrier in the arid zone of northwest China; the assessment of the effectiveness of its vegetation protection is of great significance in the maintenance of regional ecological security and the construction of ecological civilization. However, there is a lack of assessment of the effectiveness of vegetation protection at different protection levels (pre-establishment, autonomous region level, and the national level) and typical areas (human activities area or ecological restoration area). Based on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from 1995 to 2022, the effectiveness of vegetation restoration in protected areas was evaluated using the Mann-Kendall trend test, stability analysis, geographic detector, and Hurst index. The results showed that: (1) The vegetation cover of the protected area increased significantly, and the degraded area only accounted for 1.75%; the stability showed obvious spatial heterogeneity, and the areas of relatively low fluctuation and medium fluctuation were widely distributed. (2) The protected area established has positively impacted the vegetation cover, and the degree of vegetation improvement showed a phased increase, with the most significant improvement occurring after upgrading to a national nature reserve. However, the interaction between vegetation restoration and human activities is complex, and the degree of improvement may be related to the original land use status. Land use type was the main driver of vegetation cover change and had a strong influence when interacting with other influencing factors. (3) Analysis of the Hurst index revealed significant future vegetation changes in the protected area, with 50.26% of the area showing reverse persistence. Overall, 50.07% of the areas that were improved in the past may be degraded in the future, and there is a need to focus on these potential areas of degradation and implement appropriate conservation measures.

Key words: protection effectiveness, NDVI, trend analysis, stability analysis, Ebinur Lake Wetland National Nature Reserve

TANG Yuqian, MA Yufeng, TANG Mengying, XU Zhanjiang, XIAO Yuxuan, XIA Nan, MA Yonggang. Evaluation of the effectiveness of natural vegetation protection and restoration in Ebinur Lake Wetland National Nature Reserve based on normalized difference vegetation index[J].Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(10): 1828-1840.

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斜率（Slope）范围	Hurst范围	未来趋势
Slope>0	Hurst>0.5	持续改善
Slope>0	Hurst<0.5	改善到退化
Slope<0	Hurst>0.5	持续退化
Slope<0	Hurst<0.5	退化到改善

依据	交互作用
$ q\left(X_{1} \cap X_{2}\right)<\operatorname{Min}\left[q\left(X_{1}\right), q\left(X_{2}\right)\right]$	非线性减弱
$ \operatorname{Min}\left[q\left(X_{1}\right), q\left(X_{2}\right)\right]<q\left(X_{1} \cap X_{2}\right)<\operatorname{Max}\left[q\left(X_{1}\right), q\left(X_{2}\right)\right]$	单因子非线性减弱
$ q\left(X_{1} \cap X_{2}\right)>\operatorname{Max}\left[q\left(X_{1}\right), q\left(X_{2}\right)\right]$	双因子增强
$ q\left(X_{1} \cap X_{2}\right)=q\left(X_{1}\right)+q\left(X_{2}\right)$	独立
$ q\left(X_{1} \cap X_{2}\right)>q\left(X_{1}\right)+q\left(X_{2}\right)$	非线性增强

Evaluation of the effectiveness of natural vegetation protection and restoration in Ebinur Lake Wetland National Nature Reserve based on normalized difference vegetation index

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