昆仑山北坡冰川湖变化及其溃决风险评估

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.178

Abstract

Abstract:

The exploration of spatiotemporal changes in glacial lakes on the northern slope of Kunlun Mountains and the risk assessment of glacier lake outburst floods (GLOF) are of great significance for regional water resource security and ecological development. Using the Google Earth Engine (GEE) remote sensing platform, this study analyzed changes in glacial lakes on the northern slope of Kunlun Mountains over the past 30 years and applied a GLOF risk assessment model to evaluate current moraine lakes for disaster risk. The results indicate the following: (1) From 1990 to 2023, the number and area of glacial lakes on the northern slope of Kunlun Mountains increased significantly. By 2023, the number of glacial lakes had risen to 925, marking a 2.73-fold increase from 248 in 1990. Similarly, the area of glacial lakes expanded to 54.83 km², a 2.66-fold increase from 14.99 km² in 1990. This growth was particularly notable in the high-altitude mountainous regions of the western part of the northern slope. (2) The 2023 GLOF risk assessment indicates that the Yarkant River Basin poses the highest disaster risk, accounting for approximately 47.2% of the assessed area, followed by the Hotan River Basin at 15.7%. In terms of risk levels, the Yarkant River Basin shows a relatively high-risk, accounting for about 50.8%, and high-risk glacial lakes in the Yarkant River Basin glacial lakes account for 60.7% of the high-risk glacial lakes on the entire northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains. (3) The increasing trend in glacial lakes from 1990 to 2023 is closely related to regional climate change. Rising temperatures have led to increased precipitation in mountainous areas and accelerated the melting of glaciers and snow, which are the primary drivers of glacial lake expansion. The GLOF risk assessment contributes to the sustainable management of water resources in arid regions and provides a scientific basis for disaster prevention and early warning systems in downstream areas.

Key words: glacial lakes, outburst flood disaster, risk assessment, northern slope of Kunlun Mountains

CHEN Man, CHEN Yaning, FANG Gonghuan, LI Yupeng, SUN Huilan. Changes in glacial lakes on the northern slope of Kunlun Mountains and assessment of their outburst risks[J].Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(10): 1628-1639.

Figures/Tables 10

Fig. 1

Tab. 1

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Tab. 2

Fig. 4

Fig. 5

Fig. 6

Tab. 3

Fig. 7

References 38

[1]	Zhang T, Wang W, An B, et al. Enhanced glacial lake activity threatens numerous communities and infrastructure in the Third Pole[J]. Nature Communications, 2023, 14(1): 8250, doi:10.1038/s41467-023-44123-z.
[2]	Nie Y, Deng Q, Pritchard H D, et al. Glacial lake outburst floods threaten Asia’s infrastructure[J]. Science Bulletin, 2023, 68(13): 1361-1365.
[3]	Shugar D H, Burr A, Haritashya U K, et al. Rapid worldwide growth of glacial lakes since 1990[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2020, 10(10): 939-945.
[4]	Harrison S, Kargel J S, Huggel C, et al. Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods[J]. The Cryosphere, 2018, 12(4): 1195-1209.
[5]	雷鹏嗣, 王伟财, 张太刚. 1990—2020年那曲地区冰湖变化研究[J]. 北京师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2022, 58(6): 936-944.
	[Lei Pengsi, Wang Weicai, Zhang Taigang. Changes in glacial lakes in Naqu from 1990 to 2020[J]. Journal of Beijing Normal University (Natural Science Edition), 2022, 58(6): 936-944.]
[6]	Bazai N A, Cui P, Carling P A, et al. Increasing glacial lake outburst flood hazard in response to surge glaciers in the Karakoram[J]. Earth-Science Reviews, 2021, 212: 103432, doi: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103432.
[7]	Zhang Q, Chen Y, Li Z, et al. Glacier changes from 1975 to 2016 in the Aksu River Basin, central Tianshan Mountains[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019, 29(6): 984-1000. doi: 10.1007/s11442-019-1640-z
[8]	陈亚宁, 李稚, 方功焕, 等. 气候变化对中亚天山山区水资源影响研究[J]. 地理学报, 2017, 72(1): 18-26. doi: 10.11821/dlxb201701002
	[Chen Yaning, Li Zhi, Fang Gonghuan, et al. Impact of climate change on water resources in the Tianshan Mountains, Central Asia[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017, 72(1): 18-26.] doi: 10.11821/dlxb201701002
[9]	陈亚宁, 朱成刚, 李稚, 等. 昆仑山北坡区域高质量发展面临的问题、机遇与挑战[J]. 干旱区地理, 2024, 47(5): 733-740. doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.097
	[Chen Yaning, Zhu Chenggang, Li Zhi, et al. High-quality development in the northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains: Issues, opportunities and challenges[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(5): 733-740.] doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.097
[10]	王根绪, 程国栋, 徐中民. 中国西北干旱区水资源利用及其生态环境问题[J]. 自然资源学报, 1999, 14(2): 109-116.
	[Wang Gen- xu, Cheng Guodong, Xu Zhongmin. The utilization of water resource and its influence on eco environment in the northwest arid area of China[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 1999, 14(2): 109-116.] doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.1999.02.003
[11]	Rawat M, Jain S K, Ahmed R, et al. Glacial lake outburst flood risk assessment using remote sensing and hydrodynamic modeling: A case study of Satluj Basin, Western Himalayas, India[J]. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 2023, 30(14): 41591-41608.
[12]	Carrivick J L, Tweed F S. A global assessment of the societal impacts of glacier outburst floods[J]. Global and Planetary Change, 2016, 144: 1-16.
[13]	常鸣, 唐川, 窦向阳. 藏东南典型冰湖溃决机制及危险性研究[J]. 南水北调与水利科技, 2017, 15(6): 115-121.
	[Chang Ming, Tang Chuan, Dou Xiangyang. Mechanism and hazards of typical glacial-lake burst in the southern Tibet[J]. South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology, 2017, 15(6): 115-121.]
[14]	陈亚宁, 李忠勤, 徐建华, 等. 中国西北干旱区水资源与生态环境变化及保护建议[J]. 中国科学院院刊, 2023, 38(3): 385-393.
	[Chen Yaning, Li Zhongqin, Xu Jianhua, et al. Changes and protection suggestions in water resources and ecological environment in arid region of northwest China[J]. Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2023, 38(3): 385-393.]
[15]	努尔比亚·吐尼牙孜, 米日古丽·米吉提, 毛炜峄, 等. 1961—2021年叶尔羌河流域克亚吉尔冰湖溃决洪水变化特征[J]. 冰川冻土, 2023, 45(4): 1288-1299. doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2023.0099
	[Tunyaz Nurbiya, Mijit Mihrigul, Mao Weiyi, et al. Variation characteristics of Kyagar Glacial Lake outburst floods in the Yarkand River Basin from 1961 to 2021[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2023, 45(4): 1288-1299.] doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2023.0099
[16]	王翔, 陈果, 戴晓爱, 等. 藏西南典型危险性冰湖监测与泥石流溃决模拟[J]. 山地学报, 2021, 39(5): 687-700.
	[Wang Xiang, Chen Guo, Dai Xiaoai, et al. Typical monitoring of dangerous glacial lakes in southwestern Tibet, China and simulation of GLOF debris flow[J]. Journal of Mountain Science, 2021, 39(5): 687-700.]
[17]	Drenkhan F, Guardamino L, Huggel C, et al. Current and future glacier and lake assessment in the deglaciating Vilcanota-Urubamba Basin, Peruvian Andes[J]. Global and Planetary Change, 2018, 169: 105-118.
[18]	赵万玉, 陈晓清, 刘建康, 等. 冰川终碛湖溃决-再生特征与机理[J]. 山地学报, 2015, 33(6): 703-712.
	[Zhao Wanyu, Chen Xiaoqing, Liu Jiankang, et al. Outburst-regeneration characteristic and mechanism of glacier lake[J]. Journal of Mountain Science, 2015, 33(6): 703-712.]
[19]	丁悦凯, 刘睿, 张翠兰, 等. 喜马拉雅地区叶如藏布流域冰川和冰湖变化遥感监测研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2022, 45(6): 1870-1880. doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2022.110
	[Ding Yuekai, Liu Rui, Zhang Cuilan, et al. Remote sensing monitoring of glacier and glacial lake changes in Yairu Zangbo Basin, Himalayas[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2022, 45(6): 1870-1880.] doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2022.110
[20]	汤远航, 李梦琦, 邓铃, 等. 1990—2020年朋曲流域冰川变化及其对气候变化的响应[J]. 干旱区地理, 2022, 45(1): 27-36. doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000–6060.2021.159
	[Tang Yuanhang, Li Mengqi, Deng Ling, et al. Glacier change and its response to climate change in Pumqu Basin during 1990—2020[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2022, 45(1): 27-36.] doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000–6060.2021.159
[21]	Zhang G, Zheng G, Gao Y, et al. Automated water classification in the Tibetan Plateau using Chinese GF-1 WFV data[J]. Photogrammetric Engineering & Remote Sensing, 2017, 83(7): 509-519.
[22]	Li J, Sheng Y. An automated scheme for glacial lake dynamics mapping using Landsat imagery and digital elevation models: A case study in the Himalayas[J]. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 2012, 33(16): 5194-5213.
[23]	孟乘枫, 仲涛, 郑江华, 等. 昆仑山冰湖分布时空特征及驱动力[J]. 干旱区研究, 2023, 40(7): 1094-1106. doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2023.07.07
	[Meng Chengfeng, Zhong Tao, Zheng Jianghua, et al. Analysis of temporal and spatial characteristics and driving forces of Kunlun glacial lakes[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2023, 40(7): 1094-1106.] doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2023.07.07
[24]	马俊学, 陈剑, 崔之久, 等. 基于HEC-RAS及GIS的川西叠溪古滑坡堰塞湖溃决洪水重建[J]. 现代地质, 2022, 36(2): 610-623.
	[Ma Junxue, Chen Jian, Cui Zhijiu, et al. HEC-RAS-/GIS-based paleohydraulic reconstruction of the Diexi Ancient landslide-dammed lake outburst flood in western Sichuan Province[J]. Modern Geology, 2022, 36(2): 610-623.]
[25]	Zhang Q, Chen Y, Li Z, et al. Recent changes in water discharge in snow and glacier melt-dominated rivers in the Tienshan Mountains, Central Asia[J]. Remote Sensing, 2020, 12(17): 2704, doi: 10.3390/rs12172704.
[26]	朱军涛, 李向义, 张希明, 等. 昆仑山北坡前山带塔里木沙拐枣对不同海拔生境的生理生态响应[J]. 生态学报, 2010, 30(3): 602-609.
	[Zhu Juntao, Li Xiangyi, Zhang Ximing, et al. Ecophysiological response of Calligonum roborovskii to the habitats in different altitudes in north slope of Kunlun Mountain[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2010, 30(3): 602-609.]
[27]	许有鹏, 杨戍. 昆仑山北坡河流水文水资源特征研究[J]. 地理科学, 1994(4): 338-346, 390.
	[Xu Youpeng, Yang Shu. Approach to water resource characteristics of rivers in north slope area of the Kunlun Mountains[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 1994(4): 338-346, 390.] doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.1994.04.338
[28]	Guo H, Bao A, Liu T, et al. Determining variable weights for an optimal scaled drought condition index (OSDCI): Evaluation in Central Asia[J]. Remote Sensing of Environment, 2019, 231: 111220, doi: 10.1016/j.rse.2019.111220.
[29]	王欣. 中国西部冰湖编目数据[DB/OL]. [2015]. https://poles.tpdc.ac.cn/zh-hans/data/c2f98aeb-078e-4f96-afab-828e1436600b.
	[Wang Xin. Inventory data of glacial lake in west China[DB/OL]. [2015]. https://poles.tpdc.ac.cn/zh-hans/data/c2f98aeb-078e-4f96-afab-828e1436600b.]
[30]	刘垚燚, 田恬, 曾鹏, 等. 基于Google Earth Engine平台的1984—2018年太湖水域变化特征[J]. 应用生态学报, 2020, 31(9): 3163-3172. doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.202009.011
	[Liu Yaoyi, Tian Tian, Zeng Peng, et al. Surface water change characteristics of Taihu Lake from 1984—2018 based on Google Earth Engine[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2020, 31(9): 3163-3172.] doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.202009.011
[31]	刘小燕, 崔耀平, 史志方, 等. GEE平台下多源遥感影像对洪灾的监测[J]. 遥感学报, 2023, 27(9): 2179-2190.
	[Liu Xiaoyan, Cui Yaoping, Shi Zhifang, et al. Monitoring of floods using multi-source remote sensing images on the GEE platform[J]. National Remote Sensing Bulletin, 2023, 27(9): 2179-2190.]
[32]	彭妍菲, 李忠勤, 姚晓军, 等. 基于多源遥感数据和GEE平台的博斯腾湖面积变化及影响因素分析[J]. 地球信息科学学报, 2021, 23(6): 1131-1153. doi: 10.12082/dqxxkx.2021.200361
	[Peng Yanfei, Li Zhongqin, Yao Xiaojun, et al. Area change and cause analysis of Bosten Lake based on multi-source remote sensing data and GEE platform[J]. Journal of Geo-Information Science, 2021, 23(6): 1131-1153.]
[33]	Hanshaw M N, Bookhagen B. Glacial areas, lake areas, and snow lines from 1975 to 2012: Status ofthe Cordillera Vilcanota, including the Quelccaya Ice Cap, northern central Andes, Peru[J]. The Cryosphere, 2014(8): 359-376.
[34]	Veh G, Korup O, Von Specht S, et al. Unchanged frequency of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods in the Himalaya[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2019, 9(5): 379-383.
[35]	Zheng G, Bao A, Allen S, et al. Numerous unreported glacial lake outburst floods in the Third Pole revealed by high-resolution satellite data and geomorphological evidence[J]. Science Bulletin, 2021, 66(13): 1270-1273. doi: 10.1016/j.scib.2021.01.014 pmid: 36654147
[36]	Allen S K, Zhang G, Wang W, et al. Potentially dangerous glacial lakes across the Tibetan Plateau revealed using a large-scale automated assessment approach[J]. Science Bulletin, 2019, 64(7): 435-445. doi: 10.1016/j.scib.2019.03.011 pmid: 36659793
[37]	朱成刚, 陈亚宁, 张明军, 等. 昆仑山北坡水资源科学考察初报[J]. 干旱区地理, 2024, 47(7): 1097-1105. doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.117
	[Zhu Chenggang, Chen Yaning, Zhang Mingjun, et al. Preliminary report on scientific investigation of water resources on the northern slope of Kunlun Mountains[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(7): 1097-1105.] doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.117
[38]	Zhang M, Chen F, Guo H, et al. Glacial lake area changes in High Mountain Asia during 1990—2020 using satellite remote sensing[J]. Research, 2022, 2022(10): 9821275, doi: 10.34133/2022/9821275.

年份	叶尔羌河流域	和田河流域	克里雅河流域	车尔臣河流域	库木库里盆地	总和
1990	3.04±0.07（59）	7.07±0.17（81）	2.18±0.10（35）	1.38±0.04（45）	1.30±0.04（28）	14.99±0.12（248）
2000	3.46±0.07（80）	10.78±0.18（123）	4.87±0.12（42）	4.22±0.23（70）	2.11±0.04（42）	25.44±0.17（357）
2010	5.44±0.06（146）	20.28±0.76（170）	5.45±0.18（60）	7.21±0.69（60）	2.95±0.06（56）	41.33±0.52（492）
2020	8.79±0.06（212）	23.14±0.74（221）	6.68±0.15（101）	6.41±0.45（68）	4.12±0.05（92）	49.12±0.45（693）
2023	10.23±0.05（285）	25.34±0.64（295）	7.74±0.14（115）	5.22±0.30（75）	6.29±0.05（155）	54.83±0.38（925）

年份	和田河流域	车尔臣河流域	克里雅河流域	库木库里盆地	叶尔羌河流域
1990	5074.61	1055.07	1170.48	654.87	6111.33
2000	5060.55	1021.33	1169.08	638.97	5672.91
2010	5041.34	1025.36	1163.84	637.74	5480.79
2020	5064.35	1023.87	1172.30	629.89	4987.08

冰川湖	Sentinel-2A/B MSI 10 m		Landsat OLI 15 m		Landsat OLI 30 m
冰川湖	面积/km²	误差/%	面积/km²	误差/%	面积/km²	误差/%
阿牙克库木湖	1108.54	1.93	1106.45	2.11	1105.04	2.22
阿其克库勒湖	596.65	2.47	596.40	2.51	596.13	2.56
鲸鱼湖	384.31	0.45	385.90	0.86	386.09	0.91

Changes in glacial lakes on the northern slope of Kunlun Mountains and assessment of their outburst risks

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

Like

Knowledge

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

Figures/Tables 10

References 38

Related Articles 15

Metrics

Comments

Recommended 0

[1]	KANG Limin, TENG Xinru, CHE Jiahang, HUAI Baojuan. Spatiotemporal variations of snow cover on the northern slope of Kunlun Mountains [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(9): 1462-1471.
[2]	WANG Nan, LIU Zexuan, ZHENG Jianghua, ZHONG Tao, MENG Chengfeng. Spatiotemporal characteristics and driving forces of glacial lakes in Tianshan Mountains [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(9): 1472-1481.
[3]	SHI Yudong, WANG Shengjie, ZHANG Mingjun, ZHU Chenggang, CHE Yanjun. Spatial distribution characteristics of stable hydrogen and oxygen isotopes in surface waters on the northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(7): 1127-1135.
[4]	ZHU Chenggang, CHEN Yaning, ZHANG Mingjun, CHE Yanjun, SUN Meiping, ZHAO Ruifeng, WANG Yang, LIU Yuting. Preliminary report on scientific investigation of water resources on the northern slope of Kunlun Mountains [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(7): 1097-1105.
[5]	WANG Dai, CUI Yang, WANG Suyan, ZHANG Wen. Interdecadal changes and risk assessment of drought events in Ningxia from 1961 to 2020 [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(5): 785-797.
[6]	SHI Weiliang, CHE Luyang, LI Tao. Probability distribution and comprehensive risk assessment of extreme precipitation in flood season in Shaanxi Province [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(9): 1407-1417.
[7]	LI Lele, CHAO Jinlong, ZHAO Deyi, LI Haojie, WU Lindong, LI Jiajun. Spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of rainstorm and risk assessment of rainstorm disasters in Shanxi Province from 1957 to 2019 [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(5): 689-699.
[8]	WU Yingying,WANG Zhenting. Risk assessment of soil wind erosion in Hetao Plain [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(3): 418-427.
[9]	ZHAO Zhixin,HUO Aidi,ZHANG Dan,YI Xiu,CHEN Siming,CHEN Sibin,CHEN Jian. Assessing heat wave risk in Ningxia segment based on remote sensing [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2022, 45(2): 512-521.
[10]	ZHU Shuzhen,HUANG Farong,LI Lanhai. Drought characteristics and its risk assessment across Pakistan [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2021, 44(4): 1058-1069.
[11]	YANG Xiaoying,Yu Shan,Du Wala,Hong Mei. Risk assessment of grassland fire on the Mongolian Plateau [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2021, 44(4): 1032-1044.
[12]	TIAN Feng, ZHANG Jun, RAN Youhua, LIU Jinpeng, ZHOU Yi. Model comparison of mountain torrent disaster risk assessment in different spatial scale [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2019, 42(3): 559-569.
[13]	Delegerima, HAN Li, MENG Xuefeng, HANG Yuehe, JI Yanxia, ZHANG Morgen. Risk assessment of snowstorm in pasturing areas of Inner Mongolia [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2019, 42(3): 469-477.
[14]	TIAN Fengshou, LIU Xinping, YUAN Weipeng. Ecological Risk Assessment of Non-point Source Pollution in the Cultivated Land in Hetian Area, Xinjiang [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2019, 42(2): 295-304.
[15]	PEI Yan-qian, QIU Hai-jun, HU Sheng, YANG Dong-dong, CAO Ming-ming, ZOU Qiang. Risk assessment of landslides along the Silk Road Economic Belt [J]. 干旱区地理, 2018, 41(6): 1225-1240.