中国就业质量的区域差异、动态演进及影响因素

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.463

Abstract

Abstract:

Enhancing employment quality is a crucial pathway to achieving high-quality and full employment, which is vital to promoting economic development, maintaining social stability, and improving people’s livelihoods. Using panel data on 29 Chinese provinces from 2011 to 2023, this study constructs an employment quality evaluation index system characterized by “one core with two wings”. By employing methods such as the Dagum Gini coefficient, Markov chain, spatial convergence model, econometric regression models, and geographical detector, this study systematically examines the sources of disparities, dynamic evolution, spatial characteristics, and influencing factors of employment quality in China. The results reveal that (1) China’s employment quality demonstrates an overall steady upward trend, with inter-regional disparities constituting the principal source of the overall variation in employment quality levels. Spatially, it exhibits a gradually increasing gradient from the northwest to the southeast, accompanied by significant spatial agglomeration. (2) As the duration of transition periods extends, employment quality displays a tendency to shift toward adjacent levels, exhibiting characteristics of spatial convergence. (3) The improvement of employment quality exhibits a self-reinforcing cumulative effect. Factors such as transportation accessibility, industrialization level, and the degree of government intervention have relatively large coefficients, indicating their pronounced role in promoting employment quality. (4) The enhancement of employment quality depends on the synergistic effects of multiple factors, among which transportation accessibility and population density are identified as the core driving forces. The conclusions of this study can offer valuable insights for formulating differentiated and targeted policies for elevating employment quality.

Key words: employment quality, egional disparity, dynamic evolution, influencing factors

HE Jiaxin, LI Haiyang. Regional differences, dynamic evolution, and influencing factors of employment quality in China[J].Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(7): 1520-1529.

Figures/Tables 8

Tab. 1

Fig. 1

Fig. 2

Tab. 2

Tab. 3

Tab. 4

Tab. 5

Fig. 3

References 23

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一级指标	二级指标	三级指标	指标属性	权重
就业环境	经济环境	人均GDP/元·人^-1	+	0.040
		失业率/%	-	0.023
		城镇化率/%	+	0.022
		第三产业占GDP比重/%	+	0.039
	就业服务	人均职业指导服务/次·人^-1	+	0.024
		人均创业指导服务/次·人^-1	+	0.026
		女性接受职业指导人次比重/%	+	0.024
		农民工接受培训比重/%	+	0.028
就业状况	就业规模	劳动力占比/%	+	0.022
		劳动生产率/10²人	+	0.036
	就业结构	第三产业就业人数比重/%	+	0.040
		高技术产业就业人数比重/%	+	0.035
	就业能力	人均受教育年限	+	0.023
		大专及以上就业人员比重/%	+	0.029
		获取技能证书比重/%	+	0.013
		职业技能人才比重/%	+	0.023
	就业公平	女性劳动力比重/%	+	0.024
		残疾人就业率/%	+	0.035
		农村劳动力转移比重/%	+	0.015
		城乡收入差距	-	0.036
		行业工资差距比	-	0.024
	就业满意度	工作收入满意度	+	0.030
		工作时间满意度	+	0.031
		工作环境满意度	+	0.020
		晋升通道顺畅度	+	0.022
	就业安全	职业病发生率/%	-	0.012
		工伤事故发生率/%	-	0.019
	劳动者收入	在岗职工平均工资/元	+	0.037
		实际工资增长率/%	+	0.116
劳动保障	权益保障	养老保险参保率/%	+	0.025
		医疗保险参保率/%	+	0.033
		最低工资标准占平均工资比重/%	+	0.027
		工会参与率/%	+	0.026
	劳动关系	劳动争议调解成功率/%	+	0.012
		人均劳动争议仲裁数/件·人^-1	+	0.011

状态	跨期1 a				跨期3 a
状态	低	中低	中高	高	低	中低	中高	高
低	0.828	0.161	0.000	0.011	0.655	0.310	0.023	0.011
中低	0.043	0.734	0.223	0.000	0.000	0.416	0.528	0.056
中高	0.000	0.022	0.707	0.272	0.000	0.000	0.479	0.521
高	0.000	0.000	0.043	0.957	0.000	0.000	0.023	0.977

邻域状态	本区状态	跨期1 a				跨期3 a
邻域状态	本区状态	低	中低	中高	高	低	中低	中高	高
低	低	0.941	0.059	0.000	0.000	0.824	0.176	0.000	0.000
	中低	0.000	0.818	0.182	0.000	0.000	0.500	0.500	0.000
	中高	0.000	0.000	0.800	0.200	0.000	0.000	0.600	0.400
	高	0.000	0.012	0.213	0.775	0.000	0.000	0.333	0.667
中低	低	0.750	0.250	0.000	0.000	0.565	0.413	0.022	0.000
	中低	0.091	0.727	0.182	0.000	0.000	0.465	0.535	0.000
	中高	0.000	0.038	0.808	0.154	0.000	0.000	0.696	0.304
	高	0.000	0.000	0.083	0.917	0.000	0.000	0.111	0.889
中高	低	0.818	0.091	0.000	0.091	0.429	0.286	0.143	0.143
	中低	0.000	0.679	0.321	0.000	0.000	0.269	0.538	0.192
	中高	0.000	0.020	0.706	0.275	0.000	0.000	0.366	0.634
	高	0.000	0.000	0.038	0.962	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
高	低	0.850	0.150	0.000	0.000	0.806	0.194	0.000	0.000
	中低	0.000	0.893	0.107	0.000	0.034	0.724	0.241	0.000
	中高	0.000	0.000	0.400	0.600	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
	高	0.000	0.000	0.032	0.968	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000

变量	（1）绝对收敛	（2）邻近距离矩阵	（3）经济矩阵
β	-0.468^***（-4.415）	-0.474^***（-8.316）	-0.492^***（-8.786）
θ		0.629^***（10.483）	0.748^***（3.512）
ρ		0.565^***（8.828）	0.687^***（2.911）
收敛速度/%	4.855	4.942	5.210
半程收敛周期	14.278	14.026	13.305
固定效应	控制	控制	控制
N	348	348	348
R²	0.710	0.048	0.048

变量	（1）混合估计效应模型	（2）固定效应模型	（3）系统GMM	（4）差分GMM
L.emp	-	-	1.925^***（4.23）	1.286^***（6.29）
金融发展水平	0.015^***（3.40）	0.036^***（6.10）	0.250^**（2.35）	0.060^***（4.88）
工业化水平	-0.048（-0.97）	0.193^***（3.26）	0.817^**（2.10）	0.403^***（4.77）
人口密度	0.004^***（4.80）	0.003（0.74）	-0.360^***（-4.28）	0.004^*（1.93）
对外开放水平	1.007（1.29）	0.035（1.56）	0.112^***（6.37）	0.024（0.56）
交通便利度	0.064^***（5.30）	0.103^*（1.95）	3.086^***（6.60）	0.094（1.25）
PM_2.5浓度	-0.051^***（-2.69）	-0.147^***（-5.60）	-0.104^***（-3.23）	-0.065^*（-1.83）
政府干预程度	0.186^**（2.32）	6.499^***（6.83）	0.267^***（3.64）	0.858^***（5.71）
常数项	0.119^**（2.11）	0.032（0.23）	6.463^***（7.90）	1.630^***（3.29）
省份固定效应	否	是	-	-
时间固定效应	否	是	-	-
Sargan检验	-	-	0.999	0.322
AR（1）	-	-	0.084	0.013
AR（2）	-	-	0.560	0.177
N	377	377	348	348
R²	0.447	0.615	-	-

Regional differences, dynamic evolution, and influencing factors of employment quality in China

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