喀什三角洲NDVI演变特征及其对气候的响应

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.300

Abstract

Abstract:

The impact of climatic factors on vegetation growth was examined using MODIS vegetation index data, monthly average temperature, and precipitation data for the period 2000—2020. Linear trend analysis, Pearson correlation analysis, and partial correlation analysis were applied to study the temporal and spatial variations in normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) across different seasons and its response to mean temperature and precipitation in the Kashi Delta of Xinjiang, China. The findings revealed the following trends: (1) NDVI in the study area showed a highly significant upward trend, with significant increases in the affected area during the growing season, spring, summer, and autumn, at 79.8%, 71.2%, 72.1%, and 91.3%, respectively. (2) Overall, NDVI showed no significant response to mean temperature and precipitation, though precipitation had a dominant influence on NDVI. Seasonal and spatial variations were observed. During the growing season, NDVI was negatively correlated with temperature and positively correlated with precipitation. In spring and summer, NDVI was positively correlated with both temperature and precipitation, while in autumn, it was negatively correlated with both. (3) The time-lag response of temperature to NDVI was mainly negative, whereas precipitation showed a mainly positive lag effect on NDVI. This suggests that increasing temperatures inhibit vegetation growth, while increased precipitation promotes it. Precipitation has a stronger lag effect on NDVI than temperature. These findings provide valuable insights for future analysis of ecological evolution in arid regions and can guide ecological protection and restoration efforts.

Key words: NDVI, spatio and temporal variation, climate factors, Kashi Delta

ZHANG Haidong, LI Chongbo, MENG Liqi, Adilai SAITINIYAZI, JU Xifeng. Evolutionary characteristics of NDVI in the Kashi Delta and its response to the climate[J].Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(2): 296-307.

Figures/Tables 7

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季节	斜率/10^-3·a^-1	变化趋势面积占比/%
季节	斜率/10^-3·a^-1	不显著减少	显著减少	极显著减少	不显著增加	显著增加	极显著增加
生长季	1.9^**	5.50	1.10	3.10	10.40	5.40	74.50
春季	1.0^**	6.50	1.00	2.00	19.30	11.40	59.80
夏季	2.6^**	8.70	2.00	4.40	12.90	5.70	66.30
秋季	1.2^**	0.00	0.00	8.70	0.00	0.00	91.30

年份	不同季节NDVI	平均气温/℃		降水量/mm
年份	不同季节NDVI	同季均温	前季均温	同季降水量	前季降水量
2000—2020	生长季	-0.085	-0.025	0.241	0.287
	春季	0.013	0.081	0.262	0.302
	夏季	0.276	0.116	0.402	0.048
	秋季	-0.141	0.231	-0.279	0.326
2000—2005	生长季	-0.282	-0.072	0.726	0.533
	春季	-0.526	-0.004	0.821^*	0.729
	夏季	0.446	-0.104	0.067	0.741
	秋季	-0.160	-0.244	0.017	0.637
2006—2010	生长季	-0.835^*	0.034	0.870^*	0.589
	春季	-0.557	-0.073	0.689	0.417
	夏季	-0.441	-0.130	0.752	0.811
	秋季	0.702	-0.660	0.055	0.727
2011—2015	生长季	-0.447	0.697	0.001	-0.540
	春季	0.414	0.504	-0.040	-0.251
	夏季	-0.840^*	-0.045	-0.185	-0.547
	秋季	0.799	-0.394	0.259	0.564
2016—2020	生长季	0.274	-0.933^*	-0.347	0.198
	春季	-0.181	-0.302	-0.481	0.199
	夏季	0.154	-0.408	-0.041	-0.298
	秋季	0.476	-0.036	-0.946^*	-0.589

Evolutionary characteristics of NDVI in the Kashi Delta and its response to the climate

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