三江源植被覆盖变化驱动机制及生态脆弱性分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.324

Abstract

Abstract:

Investigating changes in vegetation cover, the driving mechanisms behind these changes, and the region’s ecological vulnerability in the Three-River Headwater Region (TRHR), Qinghai Province, China is essential for ensuring its ecological sustainability. Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and kernel normalized difference vegetation index (kNDVI) were used, along with Theil-Sen Median trend analysis, Mann-Kendall significance test, and geographic detectors to explore the spatiotemporal changes in vegetation cover and driving forces. The sensitivity-resilience-pressure (SRP) model was used to assess ecological vulnerability. The results revealed the following trends: (1) From 2001 to 2020, both NDVI and kNDVI in the TRHR showed a fluctuating upward trend. Spatially, areas of improvement were mainly in the northeast and west, covering 73.70% and 79.79%, respectively, while areas of decline were primarily in the central and southern regions, covering 23.23% and 18.18%, respectively. (2) Precipitation, elevation, and temperature were the dominant factors influencing vegetation cover, with interactions among these factors led to bifactor or nonlinear enhancement effects. Precipitation between 573-675 mm and elevations of 3447-3850 m were most favorable for vegetation growth. (3) Ecological vulnerability increased from the southeast to the northwest, showing significant spatial variation. The region exhibited high ecological vulnerability, with areas of severe and extreme vulnerability, as indicated by NDVI and kNDVI, covering 35.38% and 36.85% of the total area, respectively.

Key words: NDVI, kNDVI, temporal and spatial changes of vegetation, ecological vulnerability assessment, geographic detector

LI Kangning, LIN Yilin, ZHAO Junsan, WANG Jian, GE Feng. Driving mechanisms of vegetation change and ecological vulnerability in the Three-River Headwater Region[J].Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(2): 283-295.

Figures/Tables 14

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References 38

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判断区间	交互作用
q(X_n∩X_m)<min[q(X_n), q(X_m)]	非线性减弱
min[q(X_n), q(X_m)]<q(X_n∩X_m)<max[q(X_n), q(X_m)]	单因子非线性减弱
q(X_n∩X_m)>max[q(X_n), q(X_m)]	双因子增强
q(X_n∩X_m)=q(X_n)+q(X_m)	相互独立
q(X_n∩X_m)>q(X_n)+q(X_m)	非线性增强

目标层	准则层	指标层	属性
敏感性（0.7089）	地形因子（0.2024）	海拔（0.1797）	正向
敏感性（0.7089）		坡度（0.0227）	正向
	地表因子（0.0496）	土地利用类型（0.0496）	定性
	气象因子（0.4570）	降水量（0.1943）	负向
		气温（0.1630）	负向
		蒸散发（0.0356）	负向
		PM₁₀（0.0641）	正向
恢复力（0.1786）	植被因子（0.1191）	NDVI/kNDVI（0.1191）	负向
恢复力（0.1786）	多样性因子（0.0595）	生物丰富度指数（0.0595）	负向
压力度（0.1125）	社会因子（0.1125）	人口密度（0.0844）	正向
压力度（0.1125）		夜间灯光（0.0281）	正向

生态脆弱性程度	生态脆弱性指数
生态脆弱性程度	NDVI	kNDVI
微度脆弱	0.087~0.237	0.084~0.253
轻度脆弱	0.237~0.299	0.253~0.316
中度脆弱	0.299~0.359	0.316~0.376
重度脆弱	0.359~0.428	0.376~0.444
极度脆弱	0.428~0.555	0.444~0.555

指标		X₁	X₂	X₃	X₄	X₅	X₆	X₇	X₈	X₉	X₁₀
NDVI	q	0.513	0.449	0.187	0.034	0.007	0.229	0.493	0.007	0.123	0.078
NDVI	P	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
kNDVI	q	0.504	0.438	0.182	0.036	0.007	0.178	0.500	0.008	0.123	0.062
kNDVI	P	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

降水量/mm	降水量/mm
降水量/mm	0~225	225~280	280~330	330~379	379~427	427~472	472~516	516~573	573~675
0~225
225~280	Y
280~330	Y	Y
330~379	Y	Y	Y
379~427	Y	Y	Y	Y
427~472	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
472~516	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
516~573	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	N
573~675	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
NDVI	0.143	0.196	0.253	0.302	0.351	0.416	0.445	0.451	0.558
kNDVI	0.045	0.061	0.091	0.117	0.144	0.186	0.204	0.209	0.270

Driving mechanisms of vegetation change and ecological vulnerability in the Three-River Headwater Region

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海拔/m	海拔/m
海拔/m	1956~2979	2979~3447	3447~3850	3850~4176	4176~4436	4436~4665	4665~4894	4894~5181	5181~6824
1956~2979
2979~3447	Y
3447~3850	Y	Y
3850~4176	Y	Y	Y
4176~4436	Y	Y	Y	Y
4436~4665	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
4665~4894	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
4894~5181	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
5181~6824	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
NDVI	0.262	0.378	0.564	0.536	0.405	0.322	0.277	0.207	0.149
kNDVI	0.096	0.164	0.278	0.257	0.178	0.130	0.105	0.069	0.051

因子类型		NDVI/kNDVI 适宜范围或类型	NDVI	kNDVI
自然因子	降水量	573~675 mm	0.558	0.270
	气温	-5~21 ℃	0.529	0.256
	蒸散发	168~408 mm·月^-1	0.524	0.253
	海拔	3447~3850 m	0.564	0.278
	坡向	西、西北方向	0.349	0.149
	坡度	20°~24°	0.425	0.191
	土壤类型	黄壤	0.580	0.287
人为因子	人口密度	7~47 人·km^-2	0.491	0.231
	夜间灯光	9~16 lm·m^-3	0.449	0.191
	土地利用	森林	0.581	0.292

生态脆弱性等级	NDVI		kNDVI
生态脆弱性等级	面积/km²	比例/%	面积/km²	比例/%
微度脆弱	40895	18.01	37780	16.64
轻度脆弱	51917	22.86	49569	21.83
中度脆弱	53950	23.75	56026	24.68
重度脆弱	52507	23.12	55232	24.33
极度脆弱	27856	12.26	28435	12.52

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