新疆农业碳排放强度时空变化趋势与收敛分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2022.455

Abstract

Abstract:

The spatiotemporal differences and dynamic changes of total agricultural carbon emissions and intensity in Xinjiang, China, were investigated by analyzing agricultural materials, rice cultivation, livestock breeding, and straw burning. The convergence trends of agricultural carbon emissions intensity in 13 prefectures and cities were examined by performing spatial convergence analysis. The results revealed the following: (1) Although the total agricultural carbon emissions in Xinjiang from 2007 to 2019 increased steadily, the intensity of agricultural carbon emissions exhibited a decreasing trend. (2) In 2019, the total agricultural carbon emission was the highest in counties and cities of Ili Kazak Autonomous Prefecture and lowest in Turpan City. A declining trend of total agricultural carbon emissions was observed only in the counties and cities of Ili Kazak Autonomous Prefecture and Hotan region, whereas the rest of the regions exhibited an increasing trend. Generally, a “low in the north and high in the south” trend was observed in the intensity of agricultural carbon emissions in Xinjiang. (3) The dynamic evolutionary characteristics of agricultural carbon emission intensity varied widely across Xinjiang prefectures and cities. The kernel density curve showed an overall small leftward shift over time. Furthermore, the concentration of agricultural carbon emission intensity was increasing. (4) The agricultural carbon emission intensities of various prefectures and cities in Xinjiang exhibited significant β-convergence characteristics, which indicated that the gap in agricultural carbon emission intensities between prefectures and cities was narrowing. Moreover, the conditional β convergence rate was considerably higher than absolute β convergence, and the further incorporation of the spatial factor increased the convergence rate. The results of the study can be used for the development of low-carbon agriculture in Xinjiang to achieve “dual carbon” goals.

Key words: agricultural carbon emissions, spatiotemporal variations, kernel density analysis, spatial convergence model, Xinjiang

XIA Wenhao, WANG Mingyang, JIANG Lei. Spatiotemporal variation trends and convergence analysis of agricultural carbon emission intensity in Xinjiang[J].Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(7): 1145-1154.

Figures/Tables 5

Tab. 1

Fig. 1

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Tab. 2

Analysis results of absolute and conditional β convergence"

变量	绝对β收敛				经典条件β收敛	条件β收敛
	经典绝对β收敛	空间绝对β收敛			经典条件β收敛	空间条件β收敛
	经典绝对β收敛	SEM	SAR	SDM		SEM	SAR	SDM
	模型（1）	模型（2）	模型（3）	模型（4）	模型（5）	模型（6）	模型（7）	模型（8）
ln EI_i_，_t	-0.033^**（-2.34）	-0.175^***（-5.35）	-0.129^***（-4.93）	-0.209^***（-4.69）	-0.252^**（-3.91）	-0.308^***（-5.42）	-0.333^***（-5.73）	-0.332^***（-5.41）
W×ln EI_i_，_t	-	-	-	0.116^**（2.21）	-	-	-	-0.072（-0.65）
控制变量	No	No	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
$σ 2$	-	0.012^***（8.63）	0.012^***（8.70）	0.012^***（8.64）	-	0.011^***（8.57）	0.011^***（8.64）	0.010^***（8.63）
$γ / ρ$	-	0.351^***（4.24）	0.299^***（3.65）	0.347^***（4.23）	-	0.379^***（4.39）	0.350^***（4.34）	0.338^***（3.94）
Constant	-0.050^***（-5.34）	-	-	-	0.384^**（2.38）	-	-	-
AIC		-237.74	-234.21	-236.98		-232.43	-232.83	-224.49
Log-L		121.87	120.11	122.49		129.22	129.42	136.25
Obs.	156	156	156	156	156	156	156	156
R²	0.023	0.220	0.235	0.195	0.257	0.151	0.104	0.008

Tab. 2

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碳源	指标	碳排系数	参考来源
化肥	化肥折纯施用量	0.8956 kg C·kg^-1	美国橡树岭国家实验室（OPNL）
农药	农药使用量	4.9341 kg C·kg^-1	美国橡树岭国家实验室（OPNL）
农膜	农膜使用量	5.18 kg C·kg^-1	南京农业大学农业资源与生态环境研究所（IREEA）
柴油	农用柴油使用量	0.8864 kg C·kg^-1	联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）^[16]
翻耕	农作物播种面积	312.60 kg C·hm^-2	中国农业大学农学与生物技术学院（IABCAU）
灌溉	有效灌溉面积	266.48 kg C·hm^-2	段华平等^[17]
水稻	西北单季稻种植面积	231.2 kg C·hm^-2	省级温室气体清单编制指南
秸秆	秸秆焚烧量	1247 kg C·t^-1	杨乐等^[18]

Spatiotemporal variation trends and convergence analysis of agricultural carbon emission intensity in Xinjiang

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