近70 a泾河流域径流变化及其驱动因素研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000–6060.2021.212

Abstract

Abstract:

Quantitative evaluation and attribution identification of runoff change characteristics are the basis for the rational development and utilization of water resources in response to climate change. This study examines the hydrological and meteorological element change characteristics of the Jinghe River Basin in China over the last 70 years, using the M-K test, sliding t-test, wavelet analysis, and other methods to assess the contribution of climate change and human activities to runoff changes based on Budyko assumptions. The results show that: (1) The annual runoff depth of the Jinghe River Basin decreased at a rate of 0.41 mm·a^-1, and the abrupt change occurred in 1996, which decreased by 43.49% compared with that before the abrupt change. (2) The characteristic time scales for the first, second, and third main periods of annual runoff depth were 41 a, 58 a, and 15 a, respectively. (3) During flood season, runoff variation is sensitive to both precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, with precipitation sensitivity ranging from 2.3 to 5.3 times that of potential evapotranspiration. (4) Human activities are the main influencing factor of runoff variation in the basin, contributing 90.43%, 63.75%, and 94.08% to annual, flood season, and nonflood season runoff variation, respectively. The findings of the study can serve as a scientific foundation for the comprehensive management and scientific deployment of regional water resources and serve as a guide for the control of soil erosion in the Loess Plateau.

Key words: runoff changes, human activity, climate change, Budyko assumptions, Jinghe River Basin

LIU Yu,GUAN Zilong,TIAN Jiyang,LIU Ronghua,GUAN Ronghao. Runoff change and its driving factors in Jinghe River Basin in recent 70 years[J].Arid Land Geography, 2022, 45(1): 17-26.

Figures/Tables 9

Fig. 1

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

Tab. 1

Fig. 5

Fig. 6

Tab. 2

Tab. 3

References 30

[1]	程鹏, 孔祥伟, 罗汉, 等. 近60 a以来祁连山中部气候变化及其径流响应研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2020, 43(5):1192-1201.
	[Cheng Peng, Kong Xiangwei, Luo Han, et al. Climate change and its runoff response in the middle section of the Qilian Mountains in the past 60 years[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2020, 43(5):1192-1201. ]
[2]	Hu J Y, Wu Y P, Wang L J, et al. Impacts of land-use conversions on the water cycle in a typical watershed in the southern Chinese Loess Plateau[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2021, 593(2):125741, doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125741. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125741
[3]	於琍, 朴世龙. IPCC第五次评估报告对碳循环及其他生物地球化学循环的最新认识[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2014, 10(1):33-36.
	[Yu Li, Piao Shilong. Key scientific points on carbon and other biogeochemical cycles from the IPCC fifth assessment report[J]. Climate Change Research, 2014, 10(1):33-36. ]
[4]	邹骥, 滕飞, 傅莎. 减缓气候变化社会经济评价研究的最新进展——对IPCC第五次评估报告第三工作组报告的评述[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2014, 10(5):313-322.
	[Zou Ji, Teng Fei, Fu Sha. The latest progress in socioeconomic assessment of the mitigation of climate change: Review of the IPCC fifth assessment WGIII report[J]. Climate Change Research, 2014, 10(5):313-322. ]
[5]	邓元杰, 侯孟阳, 谢怡凡, 等. 退耕还林还草工程对陕北地区生态系统服务价值时空演变的影响[J]. 生态学报, 2020, 40(18):6597-6612.
	[Deng Yuanjie, Hou Mengyang, Xie Yifan, et al. Impact of the grain for green project on the temporal and spatial evolution of ecosystem service value in northern Shaanxi[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2020, 40(18):6597-6612. ]
[6]	刘万华. 发挥水利支撑保障作用推动黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展[J]. 中国水利, 2020(19):7-8.
	[Liu Wanhua. Play the role of water conservancy support and guarantee, and push ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin[J]. China Water Resources, 2020(19):7-8. ]
[7]	白乐, 李怀恩, 何宏谋. 窟野河径流变化检测及归因研究[J]. 水力发电学报, 2015, 34(2):15-22.
	[Bai Le, Li Huaien, He Hongmou. Analysis on detection and attribution of runoff change in Kuye River Basin[J]. Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering, 2015, 34(2):15-22. ]
[8]	张凯, 鲁克新, 李鹏, 等. 近60年汾河中上游水沙变化趋势及其驱动因素[J]. 水土保持研究, 2020, 27(4):54-59.
	[Zhang Kai, Lu Kexin, Li Peng, et al. Trend of runoff and sediment change and its driving factors in the middle and upper reaches of Fenhe River in the past 60 years[J]. Research of Soil and Water Conservation, 2020, 27(4):54-59. ]
[9]	陈玫君, 穆兴民, 高鹏, 等. 北洛河上游径流变化特征及其驱动因素研究[J]. 中国水土保持科学, 2018, 16(6):1-8.
	[Chen Meijun, Mu Xingmin, Gao Peng, et al. Characteristics and driving factors of runoff changes in the upper reach of the Beiluo River Basin[J]. Science of Soil and Water Conservation, 2018, 16(6):1-8. ]
[10]	刘酌希, 陈鑫, 管晓祥, 等. 变化环境下洮河流域径流变化归因[J]. 水土保持研究, 2020, 27(5):87-92, 100.
	[Liu Zhuoxi, Chen Xin, Guan Xiaoxiang, et al. Attribution of runoff change in the Taohe River Basin under a changing environment[J]. Research of Soil and Water Conservation, 2020, 27(5):87-92, 100. ]
[11]	王计平, 赵梅, 程复, 等. 清涧河流域近50年径流时间变化特征及趋势分析[J]. 中国水土保持科学, 2011, 9(5):54-59.
	[Wang Jiping, Zhao Mei, Chen Fu, et al. Temporal variations and trend analysis of runoff in Qingjianhe River in Yellow River midstream area in the past 50 years[J]. Science of Soil and Water Conservation, 2011, 9(5):54-59. ]
[12]	Liu D D. A rational performance criterion for hydrological model[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2020, 590(3):125488, doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125488. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125488
[13]	吴小宏, 刘招, 李强, 等. 泾河长系列水沙变化规律与归因研究[J]. 水资源与水工程学报, 2019, 30(6):144-149.
	[Wu Xiaohong, Liu Zhao, Li Qiang, et al. Attribution analysis of long series runoff and sediment variation in Jinghe River[J]. Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering, 2019, 30(6):144-149. ]
[14]	张洪波, 支童, 卫星辰, 等. 基于SWAT-MODFLOW的黄河中游区径流过程模拟及对黄土高原变绿的响应[J]. 华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版), 2020, 41(6):1-10.
	[Zhang Hongbo, Zhi Tong, Wei Xingchen, et al. Simulation of runoff process in the middle reaches of the Yellow River based on SWAT-MODFLOW model and its response to the greening of the Loess Plateau[J]. Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power (Natural Science Edition), 2020, 41(6):1-10. ]
[15]	于成龙, 王志春, 刘丹, 等. 基于SWAT模型的西辽河流域自然湿地演变过程及驱动力分析[J]. 农业工程学报, 2020, 36(22):286-297.
	[Yu Chenglong, Wang Zhichun, Liu Dan, et al. Evolution process and driving force analysis of natural wetlands in Xiliao River Basin based on SWAT model[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, 2020, 36(22):286-297. ]
[16]	孙福宝, 杨大文, 刘志雨, 等. 基于Budyko假设的黄河流域水热耦合平衡规律研究[J]. 水利学报, 2007, 38(4):409-416.
	[Sun Fubao, Yang Dawen, Liu Zhiyu, et al. Study on coupled water-energy balance in Yellow River Basin based on Budyko hypojournal[J]. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2007, 38(4):409-416. ]
[17]	杨汉波, 杨大文, 雷志栋, 等. 任意时间尺度上的流域水热耦合平衡方程的推导及验证[J]. 水利学报, 2008, 39(5):610-617.
	[Yang Hanbo, Yang Dawen, Lei Zhidong, et al. Derivation and validation of watershed coupled water-energy balance equation at arbitrary time scale[J]. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2008, 39(5):610-617. ]
[18]	杨大文, 张树磊, 徐翔宇. 基于水热耦合平衡方程的黄河流域径流变化归因分析[J]. 中国科学: 技术科学, 2015, 45(10):1024-1034.
	[Yang Dawen, Zhang Shulei, Xu Xiangyu. Attribution analysis for runoff decline in Yellow River Basin during past fifty years based on Budyko hypojournal[J]. Scientia Sinica (Technologica), 2015, 45(10):1024-1034. ]
[19]	Zhang L, Potter N, Hickel K, et al. Water balance modeling over variable time scales based on the Budyko framework-model development and testing[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2008, 360(1/4):117-131. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.07.021
[20]	李强, 刘招, 李璐璐, 等. 泾河水沙多年变化规律及驱动因素研究[J]. 水电能源科学, 2020, 38(3):34-37, 29.
	[Li Qiang, Liu Zhao, Li Lulu, et al. Study on change law and driving factors of runoff and sediment in Jinghe River[J]. Water Resources and Power, 2020, 38(3):34-37, 29. ]
[21]	李佩成. 追求人与自然和谐相处是历史发展的必然[J]. 科技导报, 2014, 32(30):1.
	[Li Peicheng. The pursuit of harmonious coexistence between man and nature is the inevitable of historical development[J]. Science & Technology Review, 2014, 32(30):1. ]
[22]	张璐, 朱仲元, 张圣微, 等. 近59 a锡林河流域潜在蒸散发及地表干湿状况变化趋势分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2020, 43(4):997-1003.
	[Zhang Lu, Zhu Zhongyuan, Zhang Shengwei, et al. Trends of potential evapotranspiration and surface wet conditions in the Xilin River Basin in recent 59 years[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2020, 43(4):997-1003. ]
[23]	孙栋元, 齐广平, 马彦麟, 等. 疏勒河干流径流变化特征研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2020, 43(3):557-567.
	[Sun Dongyuan, Qi Guangping, Ma Yanlin, et al. Variation characteristics of runoff in the mainstream of Shule River[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2020, 43(3):557-567. ]
[24]	刘宇, 李雯晴, 刘招, 等. 基于SPEI渭北黄土台塬区干旱时空演变特征[J]. 水土保持研究, 2021, 28(1):109-117.
	[Liu Yu, Li Wenqing, Liu Zhao, et al. Spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of the drought in Weibei Loess Tableland Area based on SPEI[J]. Research of Soil and Water Conservation, 2021, 28(1):109-117. ]
[25]	焦文慧, 张勃, 马彬, 等. 近58 a中国北方地区极端气温时空变化及影响因素分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2020, 43(5):1220-1230.
	[Jiao Wenhui, Zhang Bo, Ma Bin, et al. Temporal and spatial changes of extreme temperature and its influencing factors in northern China in recent 58 years[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2020, 43(5):1220-1230. ]
[26]	刘濛濛, 隆永兰. 巴音布鲁克近58 a气候变化特征分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2019, 42(4):715-723.
	[Liu Mengmeng, Long Yonglan. Climatic variation characteristics in Bayinbuluk during the past 58 years[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2019, 42(4):715-723. ]
[27]	王贺年, 张曼胤, 崔丽娟, 等. 气候变化与人类活动对海河山区流域径流的影响[J]. 中国水土保持科学, 2019, 17(1):102-108.
	[Wang Henian, Zhang Manyin, Cui Lijuan, et al. Effects of climate change and human activities on streamflow in Haihe mountainous area[J]. Science of Soil and Water Conservation, 2019, 17(1):102-108. ]
[28]	Wang W, Zhang Y Y, Tang Q H. Impact assessment of climate change and human activities on streamflow signatures in the Yellow River Basin using the Budyko hypojournal and derived differential equation[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2020, 591(7401):125460, doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125460. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125460
[29]	李强. 泾河多年水沙演变规律及其对中下游灌区影响研究[D]. 西安: 长安大学, 2019.
	[Li Qiang. Law of change about runoff and sediment in the Jinghe River and effects of change on the JingHuiqu irrigation area[D]. Xi’an: Chang’an University, 2019. ]
[30]	刘景纯. 20世纪30年代陕西新兴农田水利的系统建设与灌区新经济体构建[J]. 陕西师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版), 2020, 49(6):152-161.
	[Liu Jingchun. The construction of the water conservancy construction of farmland and ideal of a new economy in the irrigation region of Shaanxi Province in the 1930s[J]. Journal of Shaanxi Normal University (Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition), 2020, 49(6):152-161. ]

水文气象要素	突变前（1951—1996年）		突变后（1997—2018年）
水文气象要素	均值	变差系数	均值	变差系数
年径流深/mm	41.00	0.38	23.17	0.36
降水量/mm	515.17	0.18	518.81	0.18
平均气温/℃	8.74	0.05	9.93	0.04
最高气温/℃	14.79	0.05	16.11	0.03
最低气温/℃	3.50	0.11	5.00	0.08
日照时长/h	6.48	0.07	6.51	0.05
相对湿度/%	63.85	0.06	61.56	0.04
风速/m·s^-1	2.24	0.10	2.09	0.03
潜在蒸发量/mm	945.81	0.05	968.95	0.03

时期	时段	P/mm	ET₀/mm	R/mm	α	β
基准期（1951—1996年）	年	516	946	41	0.448	-0.135
	汛期	330	383	25	0.647	-0.272
	非汛期	186	563	16	0.253	-0.050
变化期（1997—2018年）	年	519	969	23	0.439	-0.130
	汛期	331	375	13	0.656	-0.281
	非汛期	188	594	10	0.237	-0.045
总时期（1951—2018年）	年	517	953	35	0.445	-0.133
	汛期	330	380	21	0.650	-0.275
	非汛期	187	573	14	0.248	-0.048

时间	变化量/mm			影响量/mm				贡献率/%
时间	ΔR	ΔP	ΔET₀	R_p	R_e	R_c	R_h	C_p	C_e	C_c	C_h
年	-17.83	3.10	23.14	1.38	-3.08	-1.71	-16.13	-7.72	17.29	9.57	90.43
汛期	-11.35	0.84	-8.40	2.01	-6.36	-4.35	-7.65	-16.76	53.01	36.25	63.75
非汛期	-6.48	2.17	31.54	0.77	-1.12	-0.36	-5.64	-12.78	18.70	5.92	94.08

Runoff change and its driving factors in Jinghe River Basin in recent 70 years

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

Like

Knowledge

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

Figures/Tables 9

References 30

Related Articles 15

Metrics

Comments

Recommended 0

[1]	SUI Lu, YAN Zhiming, LI Kaifang, HE Peien, MA Yingjie, ZHANG Rucui. Prediction of habitat quality in the Ili River Valley under the influence of human activities and climate change [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(1): 104-116.
[2]	TIAN Haowei, CHEN Fulong, LONG Aihua, LIU Jing, HAI Yang. Response and prediction of runoff to climate change in the headwaters of the Bortala River [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(9): 1432-1442.
[3]	AI Liya, WANG Yongfang, GUO Enliang, YIN Shan, GU Xiling. NDVI change and its influencing factors of Daqingshan National Nature Reserve based on GEE [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(8): 1279-1290.
[4]	GAO Xiaoyu, HAO Haichao, ZHANG Xueqi, CHEN Yaning. Responses of vegetation water use efficiency to meteorological factors in arid areas of northwest China: A case of Xinjiang [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(7): 1111-1120.
[5]	GU Chaolin, SU Hefang, GU Jiang, GAO Zhe, CHEN Lelin, GUO Li. On the new era of earth science [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(7): 1176-1195.
[6]	NING Jing, ZHU Ran, ZHANG Xinyuan, CHEN Kai. Evaluation and analysis of urban resilience of districts and counties in Inner Mongolia [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(7): 1217-1226.
[7]	CHEN Shujun,XU Guochang,LYU Zhiping,MA Mingyue,LI Hanyu,ZHU Yuyan. Spatiotemporal variations of fractional vegetation cover and its response to climate change and urbanization in China [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(5): 742-752.
[8]	LI Na,WU Yongli,ZHAO Guixiang,QIAN Jinxia,LI Fen,ZHAO Haiying,HAN Pu. Interannual variations of extreme air temperature events and its response to regional warming in Shanxi Province in recent 60 years [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(3): 337-348.
[9]	REN Taotao,LI Shuangshuang,DUAN Keqin,HE Jinping. Spatiotemporal variation characteristics and influencing factors of heat wave and precipitation deficit flash drought in the Loess Plateau [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(3): 360-370.
[10]	JIN Zizhen, QIN Xiang, ZHAO Qiudong, LI Yanzhao, LIU Yushuo, CHEN Jizu, WANG Lihui, WANG Qiang. Characteristics of runoff variation during ablation season in Laohugou watershed of western Qilian Mountains [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(2): 178-190.
[11]	CAO Xiaoyun,XIAO Jianshe,HAO Xiaohua,SHI Feifei,LIU Zhiyuan,LI Suyun. Variation of snow cover days and topographic differentiation in Sanjiangyuan area from 2001 to 2020 [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2022, 45(5): 1370-1380.
[12]	LIANG Pengfei,XIN Huijuan,LI Zongxing,ZHANG Baijuan,GUI Juan,DUAN Ran,NAN Fusen,DINGZENG Yangping,YANG Shengmei. Runoff variation characteristics and influencing factors in the Heihe River Basin in the Qilian Mountains [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2022, 45(5): 1460-1471.
[13]	HU Keke,HE Jiancun,ZHAO Jian,SU Litan,ZHANG Yin. Ecological base flow in Niya River Basin under climate change [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2022, 45(5): 1472-1480.
[14]	SU Yue,ZHANG Cunhou, Amuersana,LI Ke. Response of seasonal frozen soil to climate change on a typical steppe of Inner Mongolia during 1981—2018 [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2022, 45(3): 684-694.
[15]	HUANG Ying,YANG Jianling,LI Xin,CUI Yang,MA Yang,ZHANG Wen. Climate change characteristics and circulation anomaly causes of the first frost date in Ningxia based on ground temperature [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2022, 45(2): 359-369.