Abstract: According to the theory of life cycle,the industrial development trajectory followed the"S-shape", and the whole life cycle was divided into four stages:formative period,growth period,mature period and decline period. China has the world's ninth largest wine production and the largest consumption,therefore,in order to meet the international market demand and strive to develop the wine industry in China,it is necessary to grasp accurately the development stage of wine industry,and prospect the future development scientifically. In this paper, a new wine industry life cycle model was constructed in four dimensions including the industrial scale,industrial market structure,technological progress and efficiency and government role,and Chinese wine industry life cycle stage was determined and evaluated comprehensively. The evolution time of industrial development stages,the scale and speed of industrial development and the peak value of Chinese wine industry were calculated with Pearl curve model. The results show as follows:(1)Chinese wine industry had completed formation period of the industry life cycle and was experiencing an early stage of growth period,which meant that the wine industry's reform entered the crucial period and deep water area in R&D of product,product market consumption structure, technological innovation,industrial organization,etc. The upgrade of the wine industry was inevitable for the sustainable development.(2)The dynamic changes of wine production and enterprises increased rapidly since 2000. The international market share of Chinese wine was hovering at a low level,with the highest market share accounted for only 5.23% in 2012. Domestic rural wine consumption market was gradually developing,rural areas would be another new field for the development of China's wine industry. China's wine industrial development pattern was evolving from east major wine producing areas to west,and the CR4 value showed a downward trend.(3)The average growth rate of total factor productivity(TFP)was 12.40% due to technological progress (TECH)and technical efficiency change(EFF). The TECH showed longer increasing period than EFF and TFP, the growth in EFF and TFP appeared fluctuations of convergence on the time,there was an obvious lock-in effect in technology efficiency.(4)The wine industrial policy was going through the magnificent transformation from mandatory system supply to both demand-derivative institutional change and supplies of the formal and informal system,with low attention and intervention such as promotion,supervisors and maintenance.(5)2013 and 2019 were the"take off point"and"leap point"of the development of China's wine industry,respectively. China's wine industry will enter a mature period since 2026,when the output value will reach RMB 121.659 billion,and then tend to a saturation value of RMB 1541.949 billion. There is huge space for the future development of China's wine industry. This research plays a critical role in identifying the life cycle stage,forecasting future prospect and formulating policies that are consistent with the industry life cycle stage and regional correlation development.

Key words: industry life circle, wine industry, Pearl curve model, peak, China