中国主要城市居民住房支付能力演化特征研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2022.464

Abstract

Abstract:

This study examined variations in housing affordability in 27 large- and medium-sized Chinese cities during 2001—2019 with the methods of house price-to-income ratio, moving T test, and Sen’s slope estimator. The relationships between housing affordability variations in major cities and policies aimed at regulating the real estate market in China were also discussed. The results showed the following: (1) A decreasing trend in housing affordability in major cities was generally present in China during 2001—2019. A “persisting decrease” and “leapfrog decrease” in housing affordability ratings were clearly observed. Moreover, an “accelerating decrease” in housing affordability was observed in 18.52% of the studied cities. (2) Differences between cities in terms of three aspects were observed, namely the dynamics of the housing affordability ratings, the stages of variation in house price-to-income ratio and the corresponding trends. (3) In general, the aforementioned variation stages related to the adjustment of policies aimed at regulating the real estate market in China and the passing of important housing price-control measures by local authorities. Housing affordability trends were generally consistent with the development of the real estate market in China. The study suggests a framework for assessing and monitoring housing affordability to promote its timely estimation and provide insight into its dynamics. A package of policies aimed at regulating the real estate market and projects aimed at improving housing affordability in cities of particular regions were also advocated, in line with the “non-speculative housing” and “stable housing price” strategies.

Key words: housing affordability, variations, house price-to-income ratio, moving T test, Sen’s slope estimator, China

CHEN Panyu, TONG Luyi. Variations of housing affordability of major cities in China[J].Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(8): 1324-1332.

Figures/Tables 3

Fig. 1

Fig. 2

Tab. 1

References 36

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城市	子序列长度	2001年	2004年	2005年	2006年	2007年	2008年	2009年	2011年	2012年	2013年	2014年		2015年		2016年		2017年		2018年
兰州	3	0.31（1.04）	0.12（2.47^***）							0.03（0.49）
石家庄	3	0.37（1.02）		0.28（2.19^**）								0.98（1.02）
杭州	3	0.52（1.02）		0.48（2.40^***）								0.44（0.00）						0.80（1.04）
深圳	3	-0.14（-0.34）		0.51（1.25）										1.22（1.22）
成都	4	0.52（1.70^**）		0.03（0.31）												0.93（1.70^**）
合肥	4	0.48（1.70^**）		0.09（0.47）												0.34（0.34）
宁波	3	0.39（1.70^**）		0.29（1.44^*）														0.26（0.00）
海口	3	0.26（0.34）		0.07（0.75）														0.84（1.04）
广州	3	0.30（1.71^**）			0.09（0.87）							0.44（1.13）
厦门	3	0.59（1.71^**）			0.35（1.79^**）											0.35（1.02）
呼和浩特	2	-0.43（-2.20^**）			0.03（1.03）															0.87（0.00）
大连	4	0.68（1.88^**）				-0.05（-0.19）					0.11（0.90）
长春	3	-0.50（-0.38）				0.70（1.50^*）					0.07（0.60）
北京	3	0.20（0.75）				0.25（1.97^*）										0.34（0.34）
沈阳	2	-0.07（-1.88^**）				-0.12（-1.97^**）												0.48（1.04）
武汉	5	0.78（3.00^***）					0.09（1.44^*）
南昌	2	0.57（2.70^**）					0.16（3.29^***）
重庆	3	0.40（3.34^***）						0.20（1.58^*）
福州	3	0.60（3.09^***）						0.50（2.34^***）
济南	3	0.18（1.36^*）						0.07（1.09）
贵阳	3	0.06（1.11）						0.42（3.11^***）
长沙	4	0.08（0.87）						0.75（0.00）	0.02（0.00）
银川	3	-0.08（-0.62）						-0.05（-0.73）					0.21（0.75）
南京	4	0.03（0.12）						0.28（1.50^*）									-0.11（0.00）
上海	4	0.28（3.28^***）													1.82（2.85^***）
青岛	5	0.12（2.19^**）													0.80（2.85^***）
西安	3	0.06（1.53^**）																	1.00（1.04）

Variations of housing affordability of major cities in China

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