Abstract: Based on the model of measurement system,this paper selected five main indicators related to the real estate bubble,used the analytic hierarchy process(AHP) and the variation coefficient method to obtain the weights of index combination and the linear weighted method to calculate foam index and comprehensive foam index of each index. Finally,the measure research of China's real estate bubble from 2005 to 2014 was carried out. The results show as follows:(1) during the study period,comprehensive foam index in China's real estate market rose from 0.0 257 in 2005 to 1.2 138 in 2014 and showed a rising trend(except in 2008,2010 and 2012, of three years' synthetic foam index declined relativity),reflecting a expanding trend of real estate bubble,which was basically due to the deviation of market price from the basic value;(2) China's macro control policies and strong real estate regulation and control measures were responsible for the declining of real estate bubble composite index in 2008,2010 and 2012;and since 2012,the function of the market playing a decisive role in the allocation of resources gradually revealed,indicating that the country policy of opening the real estate market over the past two years was reasonable and wise. The innovation of this paper lies in:(1) adopting the multiples of expectations and standard deviation of the data as the measurement criteria,i.e.,measuring the stand or fall of the development by using the criteria extracted from the law of development of their own,rather than the traditional practice simply measured with expert experience;(2) selecting index from the price level and investment level which are closely related to the real estate bubble formation,and using the measurement system of the real estate price bubble with five quantization levels. The results coincide with the actual situation of real estate,and the conclusion proved that the country's "let go" policy on the real estate market over the past two years is reasonable and wise. The method can provide reference for the measurement of regional real estate bubble.

Key words: real estate, analysis of bubble, measurement system model, coefficient of variation, China