丝绸之路中国段生态系统服务时空演变机制及其非线性阈值

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.503

Abstract

Abstract:

The Chinese section of the Silk Road, situated in northwest China, functions as both a pivotal economic-cultural corridor connecting Eurasia and a critical ecological security barrier, distinguished by its high ecological sensitivity and diverse ecosystem services. This study employed a systematic approach to assess the spatiotemporal dynamics, drivers, and thresholds of five ecosystem services (water conservation, soil retention, carbon sequestration, water purification, and habitat support) from 1990 to 2024. InVEST models, in conjunction with the constraint line method, were utilized to conduct this analysis. The results indicate that (1) The five services exhibited significant spatial-temporal heterogeneity, with a high-value core in northern Xinjiang and the Hexi Corridor, forming a “high west-low east” pattern. The temporal dynamics of the water conservation exhibited an initial increase, followed by a subsequent decline. Concurrently, the carbon sequestration exhibited a continuous decrease, while soil retention, water purification, and habitat support demonstrated fluctuating increases. (2) Five ecosystem services are influenced by ten eco-socioeconomic factors, among which climate (mean annual precipitation and mean annual evapotranspiration) and land use (the proportion of forest-grassland, cropland, and construction land area) played dominant roles. The services responded to drivers via four nonlinear (parabolic, convex, wavy, and inverse exponential) and two linear patterns. A total of 22 key thresholds were identified. This study underscores the nonlinear mechanisms and safety thresholds of ecosystem services in arid regions, contributes to the advancement of threshold theory, and offers methodological and quantitative insights into eco-economic management and the construction of ecological security barriers in the Silk Road region.

Key words: ecosystem services, driving forces, nonlinear threshold, constraint line method, Chinese section of the Silk Road

ZHOU Yingjie, CHEN Hao. Spatiotemporal evolution mechanisms and nonlinear thresholds of ecosystem services in the Chinese section of the Silk Road[J].Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(7): 1445-1456.

Figures/Tables 8

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数据名称	分辨率	来源
高程数据	30 m	中国科学院资源环境科学数据平台（http://www.resdc.cn/）
坡度数据	30 m	中国科学院资源环境科学数据平台（http://www.resdc.cn/）
土地利用数据	30 m	中国科学院资源环境科学数据平台（http://www.resdc.cn/）
年降水量数据	1 km	青藏高原数据中心（https://data.tpdc.ac.cn）
年平均蒸散量	1 km	青藏高原数据中心（https://data.tpdc.ac.cn）
土壤数据	500 m	世界土壤数据库（https://poles.tpdc.ac.cn/zh-hans/data/844010ba-d359-4020bf76-2b58806f9205/）
年最大归一化植被指数逐月数据	1 km	MOD13Q1数据产品（https://ladsweb.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/）
GDP数据	1 km	地理空间数据云（http://www.gscloud.cn/sources）
人口密度数据	1 km	全球人口数据集（https://www.nature.com/articles/sdata20174/）

类型	潜在驱动因素	选择原因
气候	年平均气温、年最高气温、年平均降水量、年平均蒸散量	影响区域植被生长发育、大气环流和水循环
地形	高程、坡度	影响区域降水量、气温、蓄水量等发生垂直或者横向变化
植被覆盖	年最大归一化植被指数	准确反映地表植被覆盖状况
土地利用	1 hm²栅格内的草地、耕地、建设用地、林地面积占比	反映人类干预自然行为，与维持生态系统运转的生物物理过程相关
社会-经济活动	GDP、人口密度、夜间灯光指数、道路密度、与道路距离、河网水系密度、与河网水系距离	表征了生态系统服务需求的强度，反映了人类对自然资源的利用程度；揭示人类对自然系统的干预程度及其改造潜力

Spatiotemporal evolution mechanisms and nonlinear thresholds of ecosystem services in the Chinese section of the Silk Road

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