高铁开通对西北地区旅游经济的影响效应及其融合路径

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.238

Abstract

Abstract:

As an important part of transportation infrastructure, the opening of high-speed railways can produce a significant “space-time compression” effect, which can effectively reshape the spatial pattern of the tourism economy and accelerate the high-quality development of the tourism economy. This article closely combines the opportunity of high-speed railway construction in the northwest China and, based on the city-level panel data from 2010 to 2021, examines the impact of the opening of high-speed railways on the development of the tourism economy in the northwest China through the multi-period difference-in-differences model. The results show that the opening of high-speed railways significantly promotes the development of tourism economy in northwest China; through the robustness test, the paper confirms that the model construction is reasonable and the regression results are reliable. The opening of high-speed railways has significant heterogeneous characteristics for cities with different levels of tourism economic development. The opening of high-speed railways has a stronger impact on the tourism economic development of high-level and medium-level cities. The opening of high-speed rail has led to the improvement of accessibility (with the degree of impact being greater in cities with high-speed rail opened>the whole region>cities without high-speed rail opened) and the change of network centrality (with the degree of impact being in the order of degree centrality>closeness centrality>betweenness centrality), which in turn has a significant impact on the tourism economy in northwest China. Based on the analysis results and theoretical foundation, summarize the driving mechanism of the opening of high-speed railways on the development of the regional tourism economy and the integration paths of the two, and deepen the theoretical system and practical exploration of the integrated development of “high-speed rail+tourism”.

Key words: high-speed rail opening, tourism economy, influence effect, integration path, northwest China

BAI Yang, TAN Li’na, LIU Xiaoyan, LU Wen. Integration path and influence effect of tourism economy in northwest China[J].Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(12): 2124-2134.

Figures/Tables 8

Fig. 1

Tab. 1

Tab. 2

Tab. 3

Tab. 4

Tab. 5

Tab. 6

Fig. 2

References 21

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变量名称	符号	全样本城市			开通高铁城市			未开通高铁城市
变量名称	符号	观测值	均值	标准差	观测值	均值	标准差	观测值	均值	标准差
人均旅游收入	Pcti	612	0.62	0.75	240	0.76	0.79	372	0.54	0.71
人均接待人次	Pcta	612	9.54	8.72	240	10.32	8.84	372	9.03	8.62
高铁开通	Hsr	612	0.19	0.40	240	0.05	0.50	372	0.00	0.00
经济水平	PGDP	612	4.31	3.07	240	4.55	2.42	372	4.16	3.42
产业结构	Industry	612	0.41	0.13	240	0.43	0.12	372	0.40	0.13
投资水平	Invest	612	0.98	0.43	240	1.03	0.41	372	0.96	0.43
通信水平	Inform	612	2.84	1.40	240	3.40	1.38	372	2.48	1.30
财政水平	Fiscal	612	5.10	0.75	240	5.25	0.82	372	5.01	0.69
客源市场	Market	612	84.85	157.81	240	138.65	236.86	372	50.14	42.34
人口规模	Density	612	116.50	159.16	240	204.22	212.04	372	59.91	67.56
可达性	Acc	612	2.48	0.50	240	2.22	0.35	372	2.64	0.51

变量	Pcti		Pcta
变量	回归（1）	回归（2）	回归（3）	回归（4）
Hsr	0.268^* （0.144）	0.219^* （0.127）	2.659^* （1.542）	2.762^* （1.423）
PGDP		0.149^*** （0.052）		2.004^*** （0.445）
Industry		1.760^*** （0.650）		29.751^*** （6.488）
Invest		0.037 （0.074）		-0.585 （1.013）
Inform		-0.161^** （0.076）		-0.766 （0.668）
Fiscal		0.036 （0.238）		3.503^* （1.850）
Market		-0.001^*** （0.000）		-0.003 （0.002）
Density		-0.003 （0.002）		-0.033^** （0.012）
城市固定	是	是	是	是
年份固定	是	是	是	是
N	612	612	612	612
R²	0.492	0.551	0.601	0.562

变量	反事实检验		更换控制变量		滞后核心解释变量		排除被解释变量异常值
变量	Pcti回归（5）	Pcta回归（6）	Pcti回归（7）	Pcta回归（8）	Pcti回归（9）	Pcta回归（10）	Pcti回归（11）	Pcta回归（12）
Pre1-Hsr	0.173（0.114）	1.461（1.255）	-	-	-	-	-	-
Hsr	-	-	0.227^*（0.135）	3.293^**（1.530）	0.317^**（0.136）	2.956^*（1.502）	0.228^**（0.107）	2.687^*（1.380）
控制变量	是	是	是	是	是	是	是	是
城市固定	是	是	是	是	是	是	是	是
年份固定	是	是	是	是	是	是	是	是
N	612	612	612	612	612	612	600	600
R²	0.540	0.531	0.540	0.531	0.559	0.657	0.513	0.580

变量	高经济水平城市		中等经济水平城市		低经济水平城市
变量	Pcti回归（13）	Pcta回归（14）	Pcti回归（15）	Pcta回归（16）	Pcti回归（17）	Pcta回归（18）
Hsr	0.229^*（0.126）	2.728^*（1.403）	0.463^*（0.229）	4.025^*（1.995）	0.340（0.357）	1.228（3.274）
控制变量	是	是	是	是	是	是
固定效应	是	是	是	是	是	是
N	204	204	204	204	204	204
R²	0.421	0.608	0.412	0.597	0.498	0.558

变量	Panel A：全样本				Panel B：分样本
	Pcti		Pcta		开通高铁城市				未开通高铁城市
	Pcti		Pcta		Pcti		Pcta		Pcti		Pcta
	回归（19）	回归（20）	回归（21）	回归（22）	回归（23）	回归（24）	回归（25）	回归（26）	回归（27）	回归（28）	回归（29）	回归（30）
Acc	-1.608^*** （0.447）	-1.323^*** （0.376）	-10.727^*** （3.083）	-7.272^** （2.880）	-1.955^*** （0.602）	-1.656^*** （0.455）	-18.906^*** （4.302）	-15.007^*** （4.373）	-1.481^** （0.612）	-1.174^** （0.516）	-7.032^* （3.978）	-4.429 （4.015）
控制变量	否	是	否	是	否	是	否	是	否	是	否	是
城市固定	是	是	是	是	是	是	是	是	是	是	是	是
年份固定	是	是	是	是	是	是	是	是	是	是	是	是
N	612	612	612	612	240	240	240	240	372	372	372	372
R²	0.533	0.575	0.611	0.654	0.650	0.714	0.662	0.724	0.474	0.508	0.588	0.626

Integration path and influence effect of tourism economy in northwest China

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变量	Pcti回归（31）	Pcta回归（32）	Pcti回归（33）	Pcta回归（34）	Pcti回归（35）	Pcta回归（36）
Dc×Hsr	0.009^** （0.004）	0.081^* （0.046）
Bc×Hsr			0.00001 （0.000）	0.0002 （0.002）
Cc×Hsr					0.003^* （0.002）	0.059^** （0.024）
控制变量	是	是	是	是	是	是
城市固定	是	是	是	是	是	是
年份固定	是	是	是	是	是	是
N	612	612	612	612	612	612
R²	0.560	0.658	0.544	0.647	0.547	0.282

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