甘肃省雷暴大风活动特征及潜势预报研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.110

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on hourly extreme wind speed and lightning localization data from 2115 observation stations in Gansu Province, China for the period from 2017 to 2021, combined with ECMWF ensemble forecasting data, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics as well as the convective parameter characteristics of thunderstorm were analyzed. The potential prediction of thunderstorm was conducted using a multi-index nested method. The results indicate that thunderstorm primarily occur from April to September, with the highest frequency from May to July, accounting for 65.3% of the total occurrences. The hourly occurrence of thunderstorm is concentrated between 15:00 and 21:00, peaking at 17:00. The spatial distribution of thunderstorm is strongly influenced by the terrain in Gansu Province. Spatially, the frequency of thunderstorm decreases from west to east. Thunderstorm are more frequent in plateaus than in valleys, with the highest occurrences observed in the Gannan Plateau and the lowest in southeastern Gansu Province. Thunderstorm in Gansu Province predominantly fall into categories 8 and 9, while those above category 10 mainly occur in the Hexi Region and Gannan Plateau. Potential forecast probability products for thunderstorm in Gansu Province were obtained based on convective parameters and indicator threshold. Test results reveal a strong concurrence between the forecasted and actual occurrence areas, providing a significant reference value to improve the thunderstorm forecast in Gansu Province.

Key words: thunderstorm, characteristic, potential prediction, Gansu Province

TAN Dan, NIE Canqi, HUANG Wubin, LI Wenyao, XIE Lijun. Characteristic and potential prediction of thunderstorm in Gansu Province[J].Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(12): 2083-2092.

Figures/Tables 8

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区域	自然地理区	行政区划
河西	河西	酒泉市、嘉峪关市、张掖市、金昌市、武威市
河东	陇中	兰州市、白银市、定西市、临夏州
	陇东	庆阳市、平凉市
	陇南	天水市、陇南市
	甘南	甘南州

类型	物理量参数			中位数
类型	物理量参数	4月	5月	6月	7月	8月	9月
水汽	FH500	2.5	1.8	2.7	2.8	2.7	2.4
	FH700	3.6	2.6	2.3	3.2	3.3	2.4
	IFVQ700	-0.2	-0.2	-0.2	-0.3	-0.3	-0.3
	IFVQ850	-0.5	-0.3	-0.4	-0.5	-0.3	-0.4
热力	CAPE	129.6	60.7	107.8	164.4	117.0	121.2
	K	17.1	15.1	16.8	21.9	21.3	18.0
	LI	-0.5	-0.8	0.3	-0.9	-1.1	-1.9
	A	8.6	6.3	6.1	5.5	4.5	7.7
	SI	5.6	4.9	5.3	3.8	3.9	3.7
动力	D850	-1.8	-0.8	-0.6	-0.5	-0.4	-0.7
动力	W500	-2.4	-0.7	-0.8	-0.7	-0.3	-0.3

参数	阈值	参数	阈值	参数	阈值
FH500	2.5	CAPE	110.0	A	6.0
FH700	2.8	K	18.4	D850	-0.6
IFVQ700	-0.2	LI	-0.7	W500	-0.6
IFVQ850	-0.4	SI	4.5

Characteristic and potential prediction of thunderstorm in Gansu Province

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