Abstract:

This paper is based on the energy consumption data of manufacturing industries from 2006 to 2015 to determine the carbon emissions in 30 provinces of China (except for Hong Kong,Macao,Taiwan,and Tibet because of data shortage).According to the degree of factory intensity,the manufacturing industry was divided into three categories:capital,technology,and labor-intensive.Based on the analysis of the temporal-spatial evolution characteristics of carbon emissions in the manufacturing industry and the different types of manufacturing industry,this study used the Kaya model to divide the driving factors of carbon emissions into four aspects: economic scale,industrial structure,energy intensity,and energy-carbon intensity.Then,the LMDI-I  decomposition model was used to quantitatively analyze the driving factors of carbon emissions.The research results show that in addition to Beijing City,the carbon emissions of the manufacturing industry in other provinces showed a growth trend; the carbon emission increment is the highest in capita-intensive manufacturing industries,followed by the technology and labor-intensive manufacturing industries.The effect of expansions of economic scale is a main factor for all provinces and the carbon emissions of various manufacturing industries are increasing.The industrial structure adjustment,energy intensity,and energy-carbon intensity changes have two-way effects on the carbon emissions of all types of manufacturing industries in different provinces and the intensities of the effect are significantly different.Therefore,in the future,the cut-in points of carbon emission reduction in manufacturing industries in different provinces and industries should be different.

Key words: manufacturing industry types, carbon emission, LMDII method, China