环境规制、FDI与能源消费碳排放峰值预测——以西北五省为例

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2019.03.26

Abstract

Abstract: This paper calculates the total carbon emissions from energy consumption in the five northwestern provinces of China from 1997 to 2016 based on the carbon emission coefficient of the IPCC list.Using STIRPAT model,taking the total carbon emissions of energy consumption as a dependent variable,and taking environmental regulation intensity,FDI,population,per capita GDP,the proportion of secondary production,energy carbon emissions intensity as independent variables,the ridge regression method is used to fit the peak carbon emissions prediction model of energy consumption in the five northwestern provinces.Under three patterns of high,medium and low environmental regulation intensity,9 development models were set up by scenario simulation to predict and analyze the total carbon emissions of energy consumption in northwestern China from 2017 to 2030.The results showed as follows: (1) With the growth rate of each variable unchanged,the carbon emissions of energy consumption in northwestern China in from 2017 to 2030 showed an overall growth trend,and could not reach the peak of carbon emissions as scheduled.The total carbon emissions in 2030 is 70 273.07×10⁴ t. (2) Under the background of low environmental regulation,the three development models of high,highmedium and highlow can not achieve the goal of peak carbon emissions on schedule.The carbon emissions of energy consumption of each model in 2030 are 73 550.53×10⁴ t,64 881.98×10⁴ t,56 296.96×10⁴ t respectively. (3) under the medium and high environmental regulations,the carbon emissions of energy consumption in northwestern China have been effectively controlled.The carbon emissions hit its peak in 2025 and 2020 respectively under the low and medium development modes,the peak of carbon emissions are 53 447.15×10⁴ t,51 022.68×10⁴ t respectively.For the peak of the two development models in 2030,the total carbon emissions were decreased by 110 402.10×10⁴ t and 75 948.78×10⁴ t respectively if compared with the benchmark development model.The intensity of energy carbon emissions were 0.86 t per 10 000  Yuan and 0.68 t per 10 000 Yuan respectively,which were 48.38% and 60.14% lower respectively than that of 2005.This shows that the strict environmental regulation policy can effectively slow down the carbon emissions of energy consumption in the northwestern region,and it is of great significance to achieve the goal of peak carbon emissions on schedule.Based on the above research,the following suggestions are proposed: Firstly,the proportion of environmental governance in government performance appraisal should be expand; secondly,it is needed to optimize the structure of attracting investment and to promote the upgrading of industrial structure in northwestern China,enhancing the concept of green government in different regions; thirdly,it is urgent to improve the intensity of regional environmental regulation and formulate environmental governance policies in different stages.

Key words: environmental regulation, carbon emissions from energy consumption, carbon emission peak prediction, the northwest China

DONG Bangbang, LI Li, TANG Hongsong, SU Yang. Environmental regulation,FDI and energy consumption peak carbon emissions forecast:A case of five provinces in northwest China[J].Arid Land Geography, 2019, 42(3): 689-697.

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Environmental regulation,FDI and energy consumption peak carbon emissions forecast:A case of five provinces in northwest China

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