基于Logistic回归模型的内蒙古多伦县土地沙漠化驱动力分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2019.01.16

Abstract

Abstract: Abstract：Taking the desertification vector data of 1960, 1975, 1987, 1995, 2000 and 2005 in Duolun County of Inner Mongolia and the remote sensing images and topographic maps of 2010 in 2010 as the main data sources, using ENVI5.0 and ArcGIS10.2 software to extract the spatial information of desertification in 8 periods, the characteristics of desertification in different desertification types such as mild desertification, moderate desertification, serious desertification and severe desertification were analyzed in spatial and temporal differences. According to the actual situation of the study area, statistical data such as elevation, average annual temperature, precipitation, average wind speed, number of livestock, primary industry and residential area were selected. Logistic regression model was used to quantitatively analyze the dynamic mechanism of desertification, It provides scientific basis for preventing desertification and improving ecological environment. The results showed that the area of desertification in Duolun County decreased from 1960 to 2015, with a tendency of development from 1960 to 1995 and a decreasing trend from 1995 to 2015. The dominant factor of various types of desertification growth was from 1960 to 1995 Industry and residential areas; and in 1995-2015 the dominant factor affecting various types of land desertification is precipitation, livestock, primary industry and residential distance.Duolun County is located in the desert and steppe transitional zone, ecological background is more fragile, agricultural production conditions change more frequently, the process of desertification induced by human factors at a high level of intensity, nearly half a century to promote the change of land desertification in Duolun County The main driving force for the human factor. In the future, we will continue to control the number of livestock and implement the policy of desertification control to reverse the development of land desertification.

Key words: land desertification, driving forces, logistic regression model, DuoLun County of Inner Mongolia

Aruhan,Dulai,SHENG Yan,Asina. Analysis of Driving Forces on Land Desertification in Duolun County Inner Mongolia Based on Logistic Regress Model[J].干旱区地理, 2019, 42(1): 137-143.

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Analysis of Driving Forces on Land Desertification in Duolun County Inner Mongolia Based on Logistic Regress Model

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