近 58 a 中国北方地区极端气温时空变化及影响因素分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2020.05.07

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于北方地区 404 个气象站 1960—2017 年逐日最高气温、最低气温资料，应用线性倾向估计法、Mann-Kendall 法、滑动 t 检验法、累积距平法和相关分析法，分析了极端气温的时空变化特征，并探讨了气温指数的影响因素。研究表明：极端气温暖指数和极值指数呈上升趋势，冷指数和气温日较差呈下降趋势；变化幅度中冷指数大于暖指数，夜指数大于昼指数，西北地区极端气温指数变化幅度最大，东北地区最小。突变时间上，极端气温指数突变主要发生在 20 世纪 80 年代和 90 年代，暖指数和极高值指数晚于冷指数和极低值指数，东北地区极端气温指数突变时间最早，西北地区最晚，突变后极端暖事件和气温极值事件进入多发阶段，极端冷事件进入少发阶段。1988— 2012 年极端气温指数的变化响应了全球变暖停滞现象。多数极端气温指数与经纬度、海拔高度显著相关。北极涛动（AO）指数对极端气温的影响最强，对冷指数影响最明显。气溶胶光学厚度与多数冷指数呈负相关，而与多数暖指数呈正相关。

关键词: 极端气温, 时空变化, 影响因素, 中国北方地区

Abstract: Under the background of global warming, the disaster events (drought, heat wave, freezing, cold wave, etc.) caused by extreme temperature changes are also becoming more and more frequent, which pose a serious threat to industrial and agricultural production, human life and property. Therefore, extreme temperature changes have gradu? ally caused widespread concern. Based on the daily temperature (maximum, minimum) data of 404 stations in north? ern China from 1960 to 2017, 16 extreme temperature indices are calculated by RclimDex1.0 of R. Using the meth? ods of linear regression, Mann-Kendal test, sliding t-test, cumulative anomaly and correlation analysis to analyze spatial- temporal variation characteristics of extreme temperature events, and exploring the influencing factors of temperature indices. The results show that: (1) An upward trend in warm extremes and extremal indices, and a down? ward trend in cold extremes as well as diurnal temperature range (DTR); the magnitudes of changes in cold extremes are obviously higher than those of warm extremes，the magnitudes of changes in night extremes are higher than those of day extremes; The warming in the northwest region is the most obvious, and the warming in the northeast re? gion is not obvious; (2) The mutation time of the extreme temperature indices mainly occurred in the 1980s and 1990s. Additionally, the cold extremes and minimum values of daily maximum (minimum) temperature mutated ear? lier than those of the warm extremes and maximum values of daily maximum (minimum) temperature. After the mu? tation, the extreme warm events and extreme value events tended to occur frequently, whereas the occurrence of ex? treme cold events decreased gradually. The extreme temperature indices in the northeast region has the earliest mu? tation time, the northwest region has the latest mutation time; (3) The changes of extreme temperature indices re? sponds to the global warming hiatus during 1988 to 2012; (4) Most extreme temperature indices show close correla? tion with longitude, latitude and altitude; (5) The Arctic Oscillation (AO) index has the strongest impact on extreme temperatures and the most significant impact on the cold index; (6) During the 2007 to 2016, a downward trend in Aerosol Optical thickness (AOD), extreme high temperature events increased and extreme low temperature events decreased. Most cold indices were negatively correlated with AOD, and most warm indexes were positively correlat? ed with AOD. This study analyzes the variation characteristics of extreme temperature in the northern China, aims to understand the trend of extreme temperature change deeply, carry out meteorological disaster prediction, early warning research, reduce the adverse impact of extreme temperature events on local production and life, and ensure the safety of agricultural production.

Key words: extreme temperature, temporal and spatial variation, influencing factors, northern China

焦文慧, 张勃, 马彬, 崔艳强, 黄浩, 王晓丹. 近 58 a 中国北方地区极端气温时空变化及影响因素分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2020, 43(5): 1220-1230.

JIAO Wen-hui, ZHANG Bo, MA Bin, CUI Yan-qiang, HUANG Hao, WANG Xiao-dan. Temporal and spatial changes of extreme temperature and its influencing factors in northern China in recent 58 years[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2020, 43(5): 1220-1230.

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