巴音布鲁克近58 a气候变化特征分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2019.04.02

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 对巴音布鲁克站点1958—2015年的月降水量、降水日数和平均气温进行集合经验模态分解得到其变化趋势，利用MannKendall和累计距平法诊断突变点，并采用Morlet小波和R/S法分析其周期特征和未来变化趋势。结果显示：（1）巴音布鲁克各月降水量1月、6月和11月增多趋势显著，2月、7月和12月呈“凸”字形变化，减少趋势显著。（2）降水日数1月和9月呈显著减少趋势，2月和6月呈显著增加趋势，3月和11月呈“凸”字形变化，5月、7月和8月呈不同幅度的“凹”字形变化。（3）各月平均气温基本呈上升趋势，尤其以5月、7月和10月升温最显著。（4）年降水量、年降水日数和年平均气温分别在1999年、1993年和1997年发生突变，年降水日数增多早于年降水量增多和年平均气温升高的时间，从90年代中期开始气候由干冷逐渐向暖湿转型。（5）年降水量、年降水日数和年平均气温的主周期分别为41 a、9 a和30 a。（6）未来年降水量将增多，年降水日数将减少，年平均气温将升高，极端降水发生的频次将增大，易引发洪涝灾害。

关键词: 降水, 气温, 集合经验模态分解, Morlet小波, 重标极差分析法, 巴音布鲁克

Abstract: Temperature and precipitation are the most basic meteorological elements.Recently,the northwest China is very sensitive to the climate change.Bayinbuluk grassland in Hejing County,Xinjiang,China has a unique alpine climate with a more pronounced response to climate change.Therefore,more and more meteorologists are attracted to study the trends of local temperature and precipitation.By using EEMD,the characteristics of precipitation,precipitation days and annual average temperature were analyzed based on longterm (from 1958 to 2015) monthly average temperature and monthly precipitation data from Bayinbuluk Meteorological Station.The MannKendall and cumulative anomaly analysis methods were used to diagnose the mutation points.Meanwhile,based on Morlet wavelet analysis method and R/S analysis method,the periodic characteristics and long memory property were analyzed.It is found that the monthly precipitation in Bayinbuluk was increased significantly in January,June and November,and the changes in February,July and December displayed a “convex” shape.The monthly precipitation days showed a significant downward trend in January and September,with a significant increase in February and June,and a “convex” change in March and November,a “concave” change shape in May,July and August.The average temperature in each month was basically on rise,especially in May,July and October.There were big changes for the annual precipitation and annual precipitation days in 1999 and 1993,and big change for the annual mean air temperature occurred in 1997.In addition,the increase of the annual precipitation days happened earlier than the increase of the annual precipitation and the increase of the annual average temperature.Since the mid1990s,Bayinbuluk’s climate has shifted from dry and cold to warm and humid.The periodic oscillation of annual precipitation,annual precipitation days and annual average temperature were 41 a,9 a and 30 a,respectively.Meanwhile,the Hurst exponents were obtained,which indicated that in the future annual precipitation and annual average temperature would be increased but annual precipitation days would be decreased.The frequency of extreme precipitation will be increased,which will easily lead to flood disasters.

Key words: precipitation, temperature, EEMD, Morlet wavelet, R/S, Bayinbuluk

刘濛濛, 隆永兰. 巴音布鲁克近58 a气候变化特征分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2019, 42(4): 715-723.

LIU Mengmeng, LONG Yonglan. Climatic variation characteristics in Bayinbuluk during the past 58 years[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2019, 42(4): 715-723.

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