县域尺度下的陕西省洪涝灾害风险评估及区划

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 洪涝灾害风险评估和区划研究对区域洪灾综合管理具有重要意义。以陕西省洪涝灾害气候背景和社会经济环境为基础，利用辖区内34个气象测站1954—2015年、月降水数据和2015年社会经济统计资料，运用自然灾害风险评估理论及方法，从致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境脆弱性、承灾体暴露性和防灾减灾能力4个子系统选取17个评价指标，建立洪涝灾害风险评价指标体系，借助GIS技术进行洪涝灾害风险评估和区划。结果表明：（1）陕西省洪涝灾害致灾因子危险性等级自北向南呈递增趋势，高和次高危险区分布在陕南地区和关中盆地西部。（2）孕灾环境脆弱性空间分布差异较大，高和次高脆弱区分布在榆林北部长城沿线各县、延安市区、关中盆地渭河沿岸主要区县、陕南汉中盆地和安康市区。（3）承灾体暴露性各区县分布不均，大部分市区和农业发达地区暴露程度较高。（4）城市和经济发达地区防灾减灾能力较高，其他地区相对较低。（5）陕西省洪涝灾害综合风险等级表征为陕南汉江谷地、丹江流域和关中盆地渭河沿岸区县偏高，其他区县相对偏低。总体来看，中等以上风险区县占陕西省所辖区县的61.54%，其中陕南汉江谷地、丹江流域、关中盆地西部和渭南市应为陕西省洪涝灾害防范的重点区域。

关键词: 县域尺度, 洪涝灾害, 风险评估, 区划, 陕西省

Abstract: As an important agricultural and industrial province with a large population in northwest China,Shaanxi Province suffers a lot from the flood disasters,and the damage caused by flood disaster is just second to drought.Therefore,it is necessary and urgent to study the risk assessment and regionalization of flood disaster,whose results have important practical significance to the integrated local flood management.Based on AHP,weighted comprehensive evaluation method and GIS technology,this paper selected 17 evaluation indicators from the subsystem about the fatalness of disaster-inducing factors,the subsystem about the vulnerability of hazard inducing environment, the subsystem about the exposure of hazard-affected body and the disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities to establish flood disaster risk evaluation index system and evaluated the flood disaster risk and regionalize it across the province using social-economic statistics for 2015 and the annual and monthlyprecipitation data from 34 meteorological stations spanning from 1954 to 2015.The results indicated that the level of fatalness of disaster-inducing factors for flood disaster in Shaanxi Province has shown an increasing tendency from north to south which means southern Shaanxi is the region of the highest risk and the western part of Guanzhong Basin, the higher.The risk levels in other regions are relatively low. The distribution of vulnerability of hazard inducing environment varied a lot in space.The highest and higher vulnerable areas include the counties along the Great Wall in the northern Yulin,the Yan'an City,major counties along Weihe River in Guanzhong Basin,the Hanzhong Basin in southern Shaanxi and Ankang urban area. The distribution of the exposure of the hazard-affected body also varied in space.Most of the urban areas and the developed agricultural regions appear of higher exposure.The study also showed that the cities and the developed regions have stronger capabilities in the disaster prevention and mitigation but other regions are relatively weak.In general,the counties of medium to high overall risk account for 61.54% of all the counties in Shaanxi Province,which include Hanjiang Valley,the Danjiang River Basin,the western Guanzhong Basin and Weinan City and they should be the key areas in flood disaster prevention in Shaanxi Province.The results of regionalization are in accordance with the flood history records in Shaanxi Province and the study provided some reference to the relevant government departments,insurance industry and agricultural production.

Key words: county scale, flood disaster, risk assessment, regionalization, Shaanxi Province

中图分类号:

徐玉霞, 许小明, 马楠. 县域尺度下的陕西省洪涝灾害风险评估及区划[J]. 干旱区地理, 2018, 41(2): 306-313.

XU Yu-xia, XU Xiao-ming, MA Nan. Assessment and regionalization of flood disaster risk in Shaanxi Province at the county scale[J]. 干旱区地理, 2018, 41(2): 306-313.

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