青海公路沿线暴雨洪涝灾害风险指数特征与模型研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000－6060.2023.283

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用2012年1月至2021年12月青海省50个国家气象站和39个公路沿线交通气象站地面气象观测中的逐日降水量数据、地理信息数据、社会经济数据，在分析公路沿线暴雨洪涝发生发展规律、时空分布特征和不同强度降雨日数空间分布特征的基础上，采用层次分析法、自然断点法等方法对暴雨洪涝致灾因子风险指数、孕灾环境风险指数、承灾体风险指数、防灾减灾能力风险指数及风险综合指数空间特征进行了总结，并运用公路沿线暴雨洪涝灾害风险的孕灾环境、气象风险及防灾减灾能力等因子，构建了公路沿线暴雨洪涝灾害风险模型。结果表明：（1）青海省公路沿线不同强度降雨日数空间分布总体呈由东南向西北递减，致灾因子危险性最高风险区至次高风险区路段包括国道G315线的西宁-天峻路段和G227线的西宁-峨堡岭等路段。（2）暴雨洪涝孕灾环境脆弱性风险自东南、东北向西逐渐降低，孕灾环境脆弱性风险较高的路段包括国道G227线的祁连路段和G214线的共和-囊谦等路段。（3）承灾体暴露性的最高风险区主要集中在国道G109线的民和-共和路段和G227线的西宁-峨堡岭等路段。（4）防灾减灾能力较高的区域主要分布在青海省西宁、海东、海北东部和海西西部等路段。（5）青海省公路沿线暴雨洪涝灾害风险模型等级划分为暴雨洪涝最低风险（1级）、次低风险（2级）、中等风险（3级）、次高风险（4级）和最高风险（5级）。该风险模型可在气象灾害风险管理业务中进行应用，为地方交通运输部门防灾减灾救灾工作提供科学依据。

关键词: 暴雨洪涝灾害, 致灾因子, 孕灾环境, 承灾体, 防灾减灾能力, 风险模型, 青海省

Abstract:

Based on daily precipitation and geographic and socioeconomic data collected from 50 national and 39 traffic meteorological stations in Qinghai Province of China from January 2012 to December 2021, this study analyzes the spatiotemporal distribution and characteristics of rainfall intensities along the highway. The analytic hierarchy process and natural breakpoint methods were applied to summarize the risk indices of rainstorms and flood disasters. These indices include the disaster-bearing environment, meteorological risk, and disaster prevention and reduction capability. By integrating these factors, a rainstorm and flood disaster risk model for a highway in Qinghai Province was developed. The key findings are as follows: (1) The spatial distribution of rainfall days along highways decreases from southeast to northwest. High-risk areas include the Xining-Tianjun section of National Highway G315 and the Xining-Ebaoling section of National Highway G227. (2) Environmental vulnerability risk gradually decreases from the southeast and northeast to the west. High-risk areas include the Qilian section of National Highway G227 and the Gonghe-Nangqian section of National Highway G214. (3) The risk of disaster body exposure is concentrated in the Minhe-Gonghe section of National Highway G109 and the Xining-Ebaoling section of National Highway G227. (4) Regions with high disaster prevention and reduction capability are mainly Xining City, Haidong City, east Haibei Prefecture, and west Haixi Prefecture. (5) The rainstorm and flood disaster risk model, categorized into five levels (lowest, low, medium, high, and higher risk), offers a practical tool for meteorological disaster risk management and provides a scientific basis for local transportation departments’ disaster prevention and relief efforts.

Key words: rainstorm and flood disaster, disaster causing factor, disaster-prone environment, disaster bearing body, disaster prevention and mitigation capacity, risk model, Qinghai Province

张静, 保广裕, 刘玮, 杨春华, 燕振宁, 代青措, 傅永超. 青海公路沿线暴雨洪涝灾害风险指数特征与模型研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2024, 47(1): 28-37.

ZHANG Jing, BAO Guangyu, LIU Wei, YANG Chunhua, YAN Zhenning, DAI Qingcuo, FU Yongchao. Characteristics and model of rainstorm and flood disaster risk index along Qinghai Highway[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(1): 28-37.

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目标层因子	权重	因素层因子	权重	数据类型
致灾因子	0.42	年均小雨日数/d	0.10	气象数据
		年均中雨日数/d	0.30	气象数据
		年累积强降雨日数/d	0.60	气象数据
孕灾环境	0.25	地形起伏度/%	0.26	环境数据
		河网密度/km·km^-2	0.42	环境数据
		植被覆盖度/%	0.32	环境数据
承灾体	0.21	人口密度/人·km^-2	0.11	人口密度数据
		地均耕地面积/m²	0.35	耕地密度数据
		地均大牲畜数量/头	0.30	地均大牲畜数量
		地均可利用草场面积/hm²	0.24	可利用草场面积
防灾减灾能力	0.12	人均GDP/10⁴元·人^-1	1.00	人均GDP

等级	强降水	评估风险	影响建议
1级	MDRI≤0.58	最低风险	暴雨洪涝灾害风险很小，对交通无影响。
2级	0.58<MDRI≤0.61	次低风险	暴雨洪涝灾害风险较小，对交通影响不大。
3级	0.61<MDRI≤0.63	中等风险	暴雨洪涝灾害风险较大，对交通影响较大。
4级	0.63<MDRI≤0.65	次高风险	暴雨洪涝灾害风险很大，对交通运行影响很大。
5级	MDRI>0.65	最高风险	暴雨洪涝灾害风险极大，对交通运行影响极大。