基于绿色GDP和生态效率的区域可持续发展研究——以陕西省为例

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000－6060.2022.182

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

可持续发展研究是各界一直关注的议题，有效衡量和评价区域可持续发展状况有利于向绿色高质量阶段的转型。基于能值分析法和Super-SBM模型分别测算了2000—2019年陕西省绿色GDP和生态效率，从经济和环境维度对其可持续发展水平进行衡量，并以能值理论为基础建立可持续发展评价体系对陕西省可持续发展水平进行评价。结果表明：（1）绿色GDP和GDP总量持续增加，绿色GDP增长速度远不及GDP，绿色GDP指数持续下降，年均降幅为1.88%，过度依赖自然资源消耗的经济发展模式导致GDP和绿色GDP总量差距拉开，影响可持续发展水平的提升。（2）生态效率总体呈现下降趋势，经济快速发展使得能源消费总量持续增加和城市建成区不断扩展，导致生态环境压力上升，可持续发展潜力减小。（3）能值可持续指标（Emergy sustainable indices，ESI）和改进ESI值不断下降，到2019年分别为3.848和2.225，综合经济和生态可持续发展研究，发现陕西省可持续发展水平总体上处于良好状态。经济发展过度依赖传统产业，发展模式单一低效，生态环境压力加大，亟需发展绿色经济向着高质量发展的模式转型。

关键词: 能值分析法, Super-SBM模型, 绿色GDP, 生态效率, 可持续发展, 陕西省

Abstract:

Sustainable development research has piqued the interest of people from all areas of life. Effective measurement and estimation of the status of regional sustainable development are conducive to the transition to a high-quality development stage. Using an energy analysis method and the Super-SBM model, this study measured the green GDP and ecological efficiency, respectively, of Shaanxi Province from 2000 to 2019. Further, the sustainable development level of Shaanxi Province was measured by establishing a sustainable development appraisal system. The study can address the lack of a single research field or the use of a single assessment method to investigate past regional sustainable development, provides a scientific basis for the planning and layout of future sustainable development in Shaanxi Province, and plays a crucial role in promoting sustainable development strategies for northwest China. The following results are obtained. (1) From 2000 to 2019, the total amount of solar energy invested in the system in Shaanxi Province continued to rise, the total green GDP and GDP increased, the growth rate of green GDP was far less than that of GDP, and the green GDP index continued to decline with an average annual decline of 1.88%. An economic development model that heavily relies on natural resource consumption leads to the widening gap between GDP and green GDP, affecting the improvement of a sustainable development level. (2) Shaanxi Province’s ecological efficiency declined between 2000 and 2019. Regarding ecological efficiency values, the greatest value in 2000 was 1.069, the lowest value in 2017 was 0.891, and the average value from 2000 to 2019 was 1.007. During the research period, input and output efficiency can be quite effective. Rapid economic development has resulted in an increase in the total energy consumption and an extension of urban built-up regions, exerting strain on the natural environment and reducing the capacity for sustainable development. (3) Overall, the ESI (emergy sustainable indices) and modified ESI values of Shaanxi Province decreased from 2000 to 2019, falling to 3.848 and 2.225, respectively, in 2019. The energy yield ratio is declining, whereas the environmental load ratio is growing. Conversely, the energy ratio of waste to renewable has remained basically stable from 2000 to 2016, and its value has increased in 2017. This increase is due to the growing environmental strain in Shaanxi Province as the local economy grows. A study on comprehensive economic and ecological sustainable development discovered that the state of sustainable development is typically satisfactory. Further, economic development is unduly reliant on conventional industries, and a single inefficiency of the development model, as well as the rising strain on the ecological environment, requires the establishment of a green economy to transition into a high-quality development model.

Key words: emergy analysis, Super-SBM model, green GDP, ecological efficiency, sustainable development, Shaanxi Province

余焕, 雷敏, 马金晶, 李睿. 基于绿色GDP和生态效率的区域可持续发展研究——以陕西省为例[J]. 干旱区地理, 2023, 46(2): 284-293.

YU Huan, LEI Min, MA Jinjing, LI Rui. Regional sustainable development based on green GDP and ecological efficiency: A case of Shaanxi Province[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(2): 284-293.

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类别	项目	计算公式
可更新资源	太阳能、风能、雨水势能、雨水化学能、地球旋转能	能量×能量折算系数×能值转换率
不可更新资源	表土层损耗能	耕地面积×侵蚀率×有机质含量×能量折算系数×能值转换率
可更新资源产品	水电、小麦、玉米、稻谷、大豆、蔬菜、棉花、油料、糖料、麻类、烤烟、茶叶、水果、肉类、禽蛋、奶类、蜂蜜、水产品	产量（电量）×能量折算系数×能值转换率
不可更新资源产品	火电、平板玻璃、水泥、塑料和钢材	产量（电量）×能量折算系数×能值转换率
输入资源	原煤、原油、天然气、氮肥、磷肥、化学农药原药	产量×能量折算系数×能值转换率
货币流	商品进口、实际利用外资、旅游外汇收入、劳务输入、商品出口	货币数额×能值/货币比率
废弃物流	废气、废水、固体废弃物	排放量×能量折算系数×能值转换率

指标	指标名称	代理变量	单位	说明
投入	能源	能源消费总量	10⁴ t	包括煤品、油品、天然气、水电等能源消耗
	水资源	用水总量	10⁴ m³	包括工业用水、农业用水、生活用水和生态环境补水
	土地资源	城市建成区面积	km²	城市实际建设用地占用土地资源的情况
	人力资源	年末从业人员数量	10⁴人	从业人员数量表示人力投入
	物质资本	社会固定资产投资总额	10⁸元	固定资产投资表示资本投入
期望产出	绿色经济总量	地区绿色GDP	10⁸元	GDP当中扣除资源消耗和环境损耗部分的价值量
非期望产出	废气排放量	全社会废气排放量	10⁴ t	包括SO₂排放量和烟（粉）尘排放量
	废水排放量	全社会废水排放总量	10⁴ t	包括工业废水、城镇生活污水和集中式治理设施污水
	固体废弃物排放量	工业固体废弃物排放量	10⁴ t	主要为一般工业固体废弃物产生量

项目	表达式
可更新资源能值/sej	R=R₁+R₂
可更新资源	R₁
可更新资源产品	R₂
不可更新资源能值/sej	N=N₁+N₂+N₃
不可更新资源	N₁
不可更新资源产品	N₂
输入资源	N₃
输入能值/sej	I=I₁+I₂+I₃
商品进口	I₁
实际利用外资	I₂
国际旅游收入	I₃
输出能值/sej	O
废弃物能值/sej	W
能值总量/sej	U=R+N+I
能值产出率	EYR=(R+N+I)/I
环境负载率	ELR=N/R
废弃物与可更新能值比	EWR=W/R

尺度	研究区域	时间周期/a	绿色GDP指数/%		年均变化幅度/%	参考来源
市级	榆林市	6	42.55（2001年）	75.07（2006年）	5.42	雷敏等^[18]
	榆林市	8	81.20（2005年）	44.10（2012年）	-4.64	窦睿音等^[21]
	商洛市	10	87.50（2003年）	49.85（2012年）	-3.77	郭丽英等^[11]
省级	江苏省	16	85.14（2000年）	85.54（2015年）	0.03	黄和平等^[35]
	新疆	9	61.22（1996年）	74.39（2004年）	1.46	于谦龙等^[36]
	陕西省	20	66.27（2000年）	28.75（2019年）	-1.88	本文
全国	中国	17	79.58（1997年）	85.53（2013年）	0.33	沈晓燕等^[19]