格尔木河流域近60 a降水、蒸发及温度变化特征分析

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 以西部内陆柴达木盆地格尔木河流域近60 a气候变化特征为主题，以流域水循环理论为指导，应用趋势分析、Morlet小波函数等技术手段，采用定性判断和定量分析相结合方法，首先，对研究区大气降水、气温、蒸发多年监测资料进行系统分析，包括深入了解研究区水文、水资源开发利用状况，分析其年际、年内变化规律。结果表明：（1）近60 a研究区气候由冷干向暖湿转变，研究区气温呈波动上升趋势。自1955年至今气温累积上升0.37℃，1967年之后区域气温升高速率明显增加。自1968年开始降雨量显著增加，多年平均降雨量为38.27 mm·a^-1，其中7、8月份降水量增加对全年降水量增加的贡献率最大。自1956年开始蒸发量显著下降，由1956年的3 278.2 mm·a^-1下降至2014年的2 211.57 mm·a^-1，平均减速为18.08 mm·a^-1。（2）利用Morlet小波变换对气候变化特征进行了动态周期分析，分析得出研究区内降水、蒸发和温度都存在多时间尺度特征。其中降水存在14~16 a和32~36 a左右周期，蒸发量存在9~12 a和24~27 a时间尺度的周期，而温度存在7~8 a尺度和25~27 a两个时间尺度的周期特征。根据降水周期特征，可以推测出2016-2030年左右年降水量将经历几年降水偏多期，然后呈减少趋势，温度在未来几年内呈增多趋势，而蒸发则呈减少趋势。研究成果为该区水资源合理开发利用提供科学依据。

关键词: 降水, 蒸发, 温度, Morlet小波函数, 格尔木河流域

Abstract: Based on hydrological cycle theory, this paper analyzed the intra-annual and inter-annual variation characteristics of precipitation, evaporation and temperature at Golmud River Catchment, Qinghai, China, in recent 60 years, by using trend analysis, Morlet wavelet function, and combining qualitative judgments and quantitative analysis. The results show:the climate of study area is transforming from cold-dry to warm-wet,and the temperature exhibited a wavelike rises trend. Since 1955, the temperature has risen 0.37℃; since 1967, the temperature rising rate of study area increased significantly. Since 1968, the precipitation of Golmud River Catchment increased significantly, with the average precipitation of 38.27 mm·a^-1; precipitation increase in July and August contributed most to the annual precipitation increase. The evaporation of study area has decreased from 3 278.2 mm·a^-1 in 1956 to 2 211.57 mm·a^-1 in 2014, with the average decrease rate of 18.08 mm·a^-1. Precipitation, temperature and evaporation all presented multi-time scale features. The precipitation had the periods of 14-16 a or 32-36 a oscillations, the evaporation had the periods of 9-12 a or 24-27 a oscillations and temperature had the periods of 7-8 a or 25-27 a oscillations. According to the characteristic of precipitation cycle, the precipitation will increase for few years from 2016 to 2030, but the evaporation will decrease in the next 10 a. The analysis results offer evidences to further study on water resources development and guides to exploit water resource reasonably.

Key words: precipitation, evaporation, temperature, Morlet wavelet, Golmud River Catchment

中图分类号:

P467

马日新, 黄金廷, 田华, 崔旭东, 王冬. 格尔木河流域近60 a降水、蒸发及温度变化特征分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2017, 40(5): 1005-1012.

MA Ri-xin, HUANG Jin-ting, TIAN Hua, CUI Xu-dong, WANG Dong. Characteristics of precipitation, evaporation and temperature at the Golmud River Catchment in recent 60 years[J]. , 2017, 40(5): 1005-1012.

参考文献

[1] 张晶晶, 陈爽, 赵昕奕. 近50年中国气温变化的区域差异及其与全球气候变化的联系[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2006, 20(4):1-6.[ZHANG Jingjing, CHEN Shuang, ZHAO Xinyi. Spatial divergency of temperature change during 1951-2000 in China and its correlation with global climate change[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2006, 20(4):1-6.]

[2] 李聪, 肖子牛, 张晓玲. 近60年中国不同区域降水的气候变化特征[J]. 气象, 2012, 38(4):419-424[. LI Cong, XIAO Ziniu, ZHANG Xiaoling. Climatic characteristics of precipitation in various regions of China for the past 60 years[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2012, 38(4):419-424.]

[3] 张晓惠, 谢世友, 任伟. 1951-2014年重庆市主城区降水变化特征分析-以沙坪坝区为例[J]. 西南大学学报(自然科学报), 2016, 38(4):104-109.[ZHANG Xiaohui, XIE Shiyou, REN Wei. The Characterstics of variation in precipitation in Chongqing Urban Area from 1951 to 2013:a case study on Shapingba District[J]Journal of Southwest university (Natural Science Edition), 2016, 38(4):104-109.]

[4] 王澄海, 李健, 李小兰, 等. 近50 a中国降水变化的准周期性特征及未来的变化趋势[J]. 干旱区研究, 2012, 29(1):1-10.[WANG Chenghai, LI Jian, LI Xiaolan, et al. Analysis on quasi-periodic characteristics of precipitation in recent 50 years and trend in next 20 years in China[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2012, 29(1):1-10.]

[5] 刘世薇, 周华荣, 梁雪琼, 等. 新疆石河子地区气候变化特征分析[J]. 干旱地区农业研究, 2012, 30(1):229-236[. LIU Shiwei, ZHOU Huarong, LIANG Xueqiong, et al. Study on the trend of climate change in Shihezi[J]. Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas, 2012, 30(1):229-236.]

[6] 贾建英, 郭建平. 东北地区近46年气候变化特征分析[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2011, 25(10):109-115[. JIA Jianying, GUO Jianping. Characteristics of climate change in northeast China for last 46 years[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2011, 25(10):109-115.]

[7] 戴睿, 刘志红, 娄梦筠, 等. 西藏地区50年气候变化特征[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2012, 26(12):97-102[. DAI Rui, LIU Zhihong, LOU Mengjun, et al. Characteristics of climatic variation in Tibet area for last 52 years[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2012, 26(12):97-102.]

[8] 唐凯, 王让会, 凌良新, 等. 近43a潮州市蒸发变化特征及其影响因素[J]. 南京信息工程大学(自然科学版), 2014, 6(2):135-143.[TANG Kai, WANG Ranghui, LING Liangxin, et al. Characteristics of evaporation change and its influence factors during 1969-2011 in Chaozhou[J]. Journal of Nanjing University of information Science and Technology(Natural Science Edition), 2014, 6(2):135-143.]

[9] 禹东晖, 姬鸿丽, 孟丽丽. 嵩县近45a蒸发量变化特征及其影响因子研究[J]. 气象与环境科学, 2011, 34(9):57-61[. YU Donghui, JI Hongli, MENG Lili. Change characteristics and influence factors analysis of evaporation capacity in Song County last 45 years[J]. Meteorological and Environmental Sciences, 2011, 34(9):57-61.]

[10] 郭军, 任国玉. 黄淮海流域蒸发量的变化及其原因分析[J].水科学进展, 2005, 16(5):666-672[. GUO Jun, REN Guoyu. Analysis on evaporation changes in Yellow River Basin and its causes[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2005, 16(5):666-672.]

[11] 黄金廷, 王文科, 侯光才, 等. 鄂尔多斯高原近48a降水及蒸发特征分析[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2011, 25(9):145-148.[HUANG Jinting, WANG Wenke, HOU Guangcai, et al. Characteristics of precipitation and evaporation in the Ordos Plateau in recent 48 years[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2011, 25(9):145-148.]

[12] 李淼, 夏军, 陈社明, 等. 北京地区近300年降水变化的小波分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2011, 26(6):1002-1011[. LI Miao, XIA Jun, CHEN Sheming, et al.Wavelet analysis on annual precipitation around 300 years in Beijing Area[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2011, 26(6):1002-1011.]

[13] 任泉, 蔡新婷, 马文惠. 新疆达坂城地区52a来气温和降水变化特征分析[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2011, 25(10):116-121.[REN Quan, CAI Xinting, MA Wenhui. Changing features of temperature and precipitation in recent 52 years in Dabancheng region[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2011, 25(10):116-121.]

[14] 李占玲, 徐宗学. 近50年来黑河流域气温和降水量突变特征分析[J]. 资源科学, 2011, 33(10):1877-1882[. LI Zhanling, XU Zongxue. Detection of change points in temperature and precipitation time series in the Heihe River Basin over the past 50 years[J]. Resources Science, 2011, 33(10):1877-1882.]

[15] 王录仓, 张晓玉. 黑河流域近期气候变化对水资源的影响分析[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2010, 24(4):60-65[. WANG Lucang, ZHANG Xiaoyu. Effect of the recent climate change on water resource in Heihe river basin[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2010, 24(4):60-65.]