新疆极端气温冷（暖）指数历史变化及未来情景预估

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.796

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

通过分析全球变暖背景下新疆极端气温冷（暖）指数的历史及未来变化特征，为制定气候变化适应策略提供科学依据。基于1960—2021年新疆52个气象站点观测数据及1960—2100年第六次耦合模式比较计划（Coupled model intercomparison project phase 6，CMIP6）气候模式数据，通过模拟精度验证筛选出性能较好的气候模式数据，采用多模式集合平均方法，研究新疆历史时期及未来SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5 3种情景下4种极端气温冷指数和4种极端气温暖指数的变化特征。结果表明：（1） 1960—2021年新疆极端气温冷指数显著下降，暖指数显著上升，整体呈现变暖趋势，且夜间气温变化幅度大于白天。（2）气候模式平均结果显示，3种情景下新疆地区2025—2100年气温冷指数呈现持续下降趋势，暖指数呈现持续上升趋势，其中SSP5-8.5情景下变化幅度最大。（3）空间分布显示，极端气温冷（暖）指数变化呈现出差异性与一致性并存的特征。夏天日数和暖夜日数在3种情景下高度相似，而霜冻日数、冷夜日数、冷昼日数和生长季长度在SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下一致性较高。新疆已进入显著变暖的气候状态，未来这一趋势将持续。因此，应加强气候适应能力建设，以保障区域可持续发展。

关键词: CMIP6气候模式, 极端气温指数, 时空变化, 气候倾向率, 新疆

Abstract:

To examine the historical and projected variations of cold and warm extreme temperature indices in Xinjiang, China under global warming, this study provides a scientific basis for developing climate adaptation strategies. Using observational data from 52 meteorological stations in Xinjiang (1960—2021) and Coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) climate model outputs (1960—2100), models with superior simulation accuracy were selected. Multi-model ensemble means were then applied to analyze four cold and four warm extreme temperature indices during the historical period and under three future scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. The results show that: (1) From 1960 to 2021, cold indices significantly decreased, while warm indices increased, with nighttime changes exceeding daytime variations, reflecting an overall regional warming trend. (2) Future projections (2025—2100) indicate continued decreases in cold indices and increases in warm indices across all scenarios, with the SSP5-8.5 pathway exhibiting the most pronounced changes. (3) Spatially, cold and warm indices change consistently across Xinjiang, with both regional differences and commonalities. Summer days and warm nights exhibit strong similarity under all scenarios, whereas frost days, cool nights, cool days, and growing season length show higher consistency under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. Xinjiang is already undergoing an extreme warming process, which is expected to intensify. Strengthening adaptive capacity is therefore essential to ensure sustainable regional development.

Key words: CMIP6 models, extreme temperatures events, spatial-temporal differentiation, climate tendency rate, Xinjiang

杨扬, 常伟, 张兴东. 新疆极端气温冷（暖）指数历史变化及未来情景预估[J]. 干旱区地理, 2025, 48(10): 1747-1759.

YANG Yang, CHANG Wei, ZHANG Xingdong. Historical changes and future scenario projections of extreme temperature cold (warm) index in Xinjiang[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(10): 1747-1759.

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模式名称	所属研究中心	所属国家	水平分辨率（经纬向格点数）	大气模式分辨率
ACCESS-CM2	澳大利亚联邦科学与工业研究组织和澳大利亚气象局	澳大利亚	360×300	1.9°×1.3°
ACCESS-ESM1-5	澳大利亚联邦科学与工业研究组织和澳大利亚气象局	澳大利亚	360×300	1.9°×1.3°
BCC-CSM2-MR	中国国家气候中心	中国	360×232	1.0°×1.0°
CanESM5	加拿大气候模拟与分析中心	加拿大	361×290	2.8°×2.8°
FIO-ESM-2-0	中国海洋研究所	中国	320×384	1.0°×1.0°
GFDL-ESM4	美国国家海洋和大气管理局地球物理流体动力学实验室	美国	720×576	1.0°×1.0°
INM-CM4-8	俄罗斯科学院数值数学研究所	俄罗斯	360×318	2.0°×1.5°
INM-CM5-0	俄罗斯科学院数值数学研究所	俄罗斯	720×720	2.0°×1.5°
IPSL-CM6A-LR	法国皮埃尔·西蒙·拉普拉斯研究所	法国	362×332	2.5°×1.3°
MIROC6	日本东京大学气候系统研究中心	日本	360×256	1.4°×1.4°
MRI-ESM2-0	日本气象研究所	日本	360×364	1.9°×1.9°
NESM3	中国南京信息工程大学	中国	362×292	1.9°×1.9°

分类	指数名称	定义
冷指数	霜冻日数	日最低气温<0 ℃的日数
	结冰日数	日最高气温<0 ℃的日数
	冷夜日数	日最低气温<10%分位值的日数
	冷昼日数	日最高气温<10%分位值的日数
暖指数	生长季长度	生长季结束日和开始日之差
	夏天日数	日最高气温>25 ℃的日数
	暖夜日数	日最低气温>90%分位值的日数
	暖昼日数	日最高气温>90%分位值的日数

分类	指数名称	气候倾向率/d·(10a)^-1	P值
冷指数	霜冻日数	-3.328	0.000
	结冰日数	-0.952	0.079
	冷夜日数	-3.749	0.000
	冷昼日数	-0.875	0.000
暖指数	生长季长度	2.628	0.000
	夏天日数	1.645	0.000
	暖夜日数	3.678	0.000
	暖昼日数	1.836	0.000

模式名称	相关系数	相对误差	相对均方根误差
ACCESS-CM2	0.904	3.691	-0.059
ACCESS-ESM1-5	0.912	3.800	-0.094
BCC-CSM2-MR	0.913	2.776	-0.020
CanESM5	0.884	4.013	0.462
FIO-ESM-2-0	0.906	1.991	0.462
GFDL-ESM4	0.913	2.109	-0.135
INM-CM4-8	0.924	2.903	-0.107
INM-CM5-0	0.922	3.822	-0.078
IPSL-CM6A-LR	0.880	8.578	0.317
MIROC6	0.908	2.176	-0.035
MRI-ESM2-0	0.895	3.054	-0.071
NESM3	0.904	2.231	-0.103

分类	指数名称	SSP1-2.6		SSP2-4.5		SSP5-8.5
分类	指数名称	气候倾向率/d·(10a)^-1	P	气候倾向率/d·(10a)^-1	P	气候倾向率/d·(10a)^-1	P
冷指数	霜冻日数	-0.531	0.031	-2.177	0.000	-5.188	0.000
	结冰日数	-0.509	0.095	-2.400	0.000	-5.227	0.000
	冷夜日数	-1.387	0.000	-5.089	0.000	-8.734	0.000
	冷昼日数	-1.395	0.000	-4.367	0.000	-6.146	0.000
暖指数	生长季长度	0.730	0.016	1.467	0.000	4.488	0.000
	夏天日数	0.562	0.004	2.193	0.000	5.047	0.000
	暖夜日数	1.029	0.007	6.050	0.000	12.384	0.000
	暖昼日数	1.269	0.001	5.071	0.000	8.500	0.000