基于CMIP6的伊犁河流域极端降水时空特征分析研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.634

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 在全球变暖的影响下，极端降水事件引发的灾害风险日益加剧，对地区的社会经济发展和公众的生命财产安全造成严重威胁。首先对1981—2024年伊犁河流域的8个极端降水指数进行时空特征分析，并通过第六次国际耦合模式比较计划（Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6，CMIP6）多个模式不同情景的数据，使用多模式集合平均法和Sen’s斜率估计法分析2025—2050年不同情景下的极端降水指数时空变化。结果表明：（1）1981—2024年的伊犁河流域极端降水指数多呈上升趋势，尤以东部和西南部山区显著。（2）2025—2050年SSP245和SSP585情景下，极端降水波动性大但整体呈上升趋势，其中SSP585情景下极端降水更频繁强烈，伊犁河流域东部和南部山区的年降水量及强降水事件显著增加，展现出更强的降水趋势和更高的极端降水风险，而北部和中部平原地区强降水事件相对较少，这种空间异质性可能对区域自然灾害频发程度及农业生产、畜牧养殖产生不同影响。研究结果可为地方政府部门制定极端降水事件防控策略提供科学依据。

关键词: CMIP6, 极端降水, 时空变化特征, 伊犁河流域

Abstract:

Under the influence of global warming, the disaster risks associated with extreme precipitation events have intensified. These risks pose serious threats to regional socioeconomic development and the safety of life and property. Considering historical daily meteorological data from 1981 to 2024, this study examines the spatiotemporal distribution patterns of extreme precipitation indices in the Ili River Basin, Xinjiang, China. Furthermore, using data from multiple models under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and applying the multimodel ensemble mean and Sen’s slope estimation method, this study estimates the changes in these indices under different scenarios from 2025 to 2050. The results indicate that: (1) From 1981 to 2024, most extreme precipitation indices in the Ili River Basin exhibited an increasing trend, especially in the eastern and southwestern mountainous regions. (2) From 2025 to 2050, under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, extreme precipitation is estimated to result in large fluctuations but in an upward trend. In particularly, under the SSP585 scenario, precipitation events are expected to become more frequent and intense, with remarkable increases in annual precipitation and extreme precipitation events in the eastern and southern mountainous regions of the Ili River Basin, indicating a stronger upward trend and increased risk. By contrast, extreme precipitation events are projected to be relatively fewer in the northern and central plains. This spatial heterogeneity may have differentiated impacts on the frequency of natural disasters and agricultural and pastoral production in the region. The findings provide a scientific basis for preventing and mitigating extreme precipitation hazards and support high-quality regional development in the Ili River Basin.

Key words: CMIP6, extreme precipitation, spatio-temporal variation characteristics, Ili River Basin

刘京会, 袁旭山, 李艳敏, 李鑫旭. 基于CMIP6的伊犁河流域极端降水时空特征分析研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2025, 48(8): 1329-1341.

LIU Jinghui, YUAN Xushan, LI Yanmin, LI Xinxu. Spatio-temporal characteristics of extreme precipitation in the Ili River Basin based on CMIP6[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(8): 1329-1341.

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模式名称	所属国家或地区	所属机构简称	格点数
ACCESS-ESM1-5	澳大利亚	CSIRO	145×192
ACCESS-CM2	澳大利亚	CSIRO-ARCCSS	144×192
BCC-CSM2-MR	中国	BCC	160×320
CESM2-WACCM	美国	NCCR	192×288
CanESM5	加拿大	CCCma	64×128
CESM2	美国	NCCR	192×288
CNRM-ESM2-1	法国	CNRM-CERFACS	249×362
EC-Earth3	欧盟	EC-Earth-Consortium	256×512
EC-Earth3-Veg	欧盟	EC-Earth-Consortium	256×512
FGOALS-g3	中国	CAS	80×180
GFDL-ESM4	美国	NOAA-GFDL	180×288
GFDL-CM4	美国	NOAA-GFDL	180×288
IPSL-CM6A-LR	欧盟	IPSL	90×144
KACE-1-0-G	韩国	NIMS-KMA	144×192
MPI-ESM1-2-HR	德国	MPI-MDWD DKRZ	192×384
MRI-ESM2-0	日本	MRI	160×320
NESM3	中国	NUIST	96×192
NorESM2-LM	挪威	NCC	96×144
NorESM2-MM	挪威	NCC	192×288
UKESM1-0-LL	英国	MOHC	144×192

类型	指标	缩写	含义	单位
强度指数	降水量	PRCPTOT	日降水量≥1 mm的总降水量	mm
	降水强度	SDLL	连续降水的日平均降水量	mm·d^-1
	最大1 d降水量	RX1day	最大的当日降水量	mm
	最大5 d降水量	RX5day	最大的连续5 d降水量	mm
相对指数	强降水量	R95p	日降水量>95%降水总量	mm
相对指数	极强降水量	R99p	日降水量>99%降水总量	mm
绝对指数	最长有降水日数	CWD	1 a内最长有降水的天数	d
绝对指数	最长无降水日数	CDD	1 a内最长无降水的天数	d