2000—2022年呼伦贝尔植被覆盖时空动态及其对气候因子的响应

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.456

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 对呼伦贝尔植被覆盖的时空变化特征研究，可为制定精准化的植被恢复和生态环境保护政策提供思路，有利于呼伦贝尔生态文明建设。运用森+曼-肯德尔趋势分析、Hurst指数、线性回归和偏相关等分析方法，基于逐月最大值合成的遥感数据，结合气温和降水数据集，定量分析2000—2022年呼伦贝尔植被动态分布特征及未来趋势，并讨论植被覆盖对气候因子的响应。结果表明：（1）呼伦贝尔植被覆盖以0.0021·a^-1的变化速率上升。整个研究期内出现2次趋势特征变化，即年均归一化植被指数（Normalized difference vegetation index，NDVI）分别在2000—2010年呈现稳定上升趋势（0.00007·a^-1）和2010—2022年显著增加趋势（0.0031·a^-1），反映植被覆盖除受到气候因子影响外，很大程度也受到生态保护政策的影响。（2）在季节上，变化速率呈春季（0.0031·a^-1）最高，冬季（0.0021·a^-1）和夏季（0.0019·a^-1）次之，秋季（0.0014·a^-1）最低的特征；在空间分布上，年均NDVI从中部大兴安岭地区向东部丘陵和西部草地递减。（3）年均NDVI对气候变化响应的敏感度在空间和时间上各不相同，表现在空间上对降水较为敏感，主要集中在西部草原地区，而年际变化上对气温较为敏感。呼伦贝尔的植被覆盖总体显示偏好趋势，但局部退化现象也已经出现。未来大兴安岭地区森林植被可能面临退化风险。

关键词: NDVI, 植被覆盖, 可持续发展, Hurst指数, 呼伦贝尔

Abstract:

The study of the spatiotemporal dynamics of vegetation cover in Hulun Buir City, Inner Mongolia, China provides valuable insights for the development of precise vegetation restoration and ecological protection policies, thereby contributing to the region’s ecological sustainability. Using Sen+Mann-Kendall trend analysis, the Hurst index, linear regression, and partial correlation analysis, this study quantitatively investigates the spatiotemporal characteristics of vegetation cover and its driving factors based on MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and meteorological datasets. The results indicate that vegetation cover in Hulun Buir increased from 2000 to 2022 at a rate of 0.0021·a^-1. Two distinct phases of NDVI change were observed: A stable trend for the period of 2000—2010 (0.00007·a^-1) and a significant increase during 2010—2022 (0.0031·a^-1). These trends suggest that vegetation cover is influenced not only by climatic factors but also by ecological protection policies. Seasonally, the highest vegetation growth rate in Hulun Buir occurs in spring (0.0031·a^-1), followed by winter (0.0021·a^-1) and summer (0.0019·a^-1), with the lowest in autumn (0.0014·a^-1). Spatially, vegetation cover decreases gradually from the central Greater Hinggan Mountains to the eastern hills and western grasslands. Further, the sensitivity of vegetation cover to climate change varies across locations and time periods, with greater responsiveness to precipitation in the western grasslands and to temperature in terms of interannual variation. However, despite the overall increase in the vegetation cover, certain areas are experiencing degradation. Notably, forest vegetation in the Greater Hinggan Mountains may face a risk of future decline.

Key words: NDVI, vegetation cover, sustainable development, Hurst index, Hulun Buir

邹翔, 张雨婷, 徐璐. 2000—2022年呼伦贝尔植被覆盖时空动态及其对气候因子的响应[J]. 干旱区地理, 2025, 48(6): 963-972.

ZOU Xiang, ZHANG Yuting, XU Lu. Spatio-temporal patterns of vegetation cover and its responses to climatic factors in Hulun Buir from 2000 to 2022[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(6): 963-972.

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变化类型	分类标准	面积占比/%
显著退化	Slope<-0.0005且P<0.05	6.12
稳定	-0.0005≤Slope≤0.0005	18.10
显著改善	Slope>0.0005且P<0.05	71.47

类型	年均NDVI
年气温最大值	0.46^*
年气温最小值	0.59^**
年均气温	0.56^**
年降水量最大值	0.39
年降水量最小值	0.36
年均降水量	0.41^*