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  • 2025年7月22日 星期二

干旱区地理 ›› 2025, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (4): 673-688.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.392 cstr: 32274.14.ALG2024392

• 生态与环境 • 上一篇    下一篇

2001—2020年塔城地区草地健康时空变化特征及其驱动力分析

邢梦祥1,2(), 郑江华1,2(), 李刚勇3,4, 彭建3,4, 凯撒·米吉提3,4, 刘亮1,2, 张建立3,4, 马丽莎1,2, 陆建涛1,2   

  1. 1.新疆大学地理与遥感科学学院,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830046
    2.新疆绿洲重点实验室,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830046
    3.新疆维吾尔自治区草原总站,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830049
    4.干旱区草地生态系统遥感监测实验室,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830049
  • 收稿日期:2024-06-25 修回日期:2024-12-30 出版日期:2025-04-25 发布日期:2025-04-18
  • 通讯作者: 郑江华(1973-),男,博士,教授、博士生导师,主要从事遥感与地理信息系统应用研究. E-mail: zheng.jianghua@xju.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:邢梦祥(1999-),男,硕士研究生,从事植被与环境遥感研究. E-mail: 107552201169@stu.xju.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    塔城地区草地健康评估与制图(202334140016)

Spatiotemporal dynamics and driving forces of grassland health in Tacheng Prefecture from 2001 to 2020

XING Mengxiang1,2(), ZHENG Jianghua1,2(), LI Gangyong3,4, PENG Jian3,4, Kaisa MIJITI3,4, LIU Liang1,2, ZHANG Jianli3,4, MA Lisha1,2, LU Jiantao1,2   

  1. 1. College of Geography and Remote Sensing, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, Xinjiang, China
    2. Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, Ministry of Education, Urumqi 830046, Xinjiang, China
    3. Xinjiang Grassland Technical Promotion Station, Urumqi 830049, Xinjiang, China
    4. Joint Laboratory for Remote Sensing Observation of Grassland Ecosystem in Arid Area, Urumqi 830049, Xinjiang, China
  • Received:2024-06-25 Revised:2024-12-30 Published:2025-04-25 Online:2025-04-18

摘要:

塔城地区作为重要农牧区,深入研究草地健康对草地保护及放牧管理具有重要意义,但关于该地区不同草地类型在长时间序列下健康时空动态及其驱动力仍有待探究。选取15个指标构建“压力-状态-响应”模型,采用空间主成分分析、变异系数、Hurst指数、空间自相关和地理探测器方法评价2001—2020年塔城地区草地健康时空动态及其驱动力。结果表明:(1) 时间上,塔城地区草地健康值呈波动下降趋势。草地的警戒和崩溃等级的变化趋势相反,亚健康和健康等级趋势基本稳定。(2) 空间上,塔城地区草地多年平均健康等级空间分布自西向东由亚健康等级逐渐转为警戒和崩溃状态。不同草地类型健康等级多为亚健康状态。(3) 未来变化趋势上,塔城地区草地健康以持续减少为主,主要分布在塔城市、额敏县南部、和布克赛尔蒙古自治县北部。(4) 驱动因素上,植被因子能够更好地反映出塔城地区草地健康状况,而因子交互作用比单因子更能产生明显的增强效应。研究结果可为塔城地区未来草地的规划和管理提供理论依据和参考价值。

关键词: “压力-状态-响应”模型, 草地健康, Hurst指数, 地理探测器, 塔城地区

Abstract:

As an important agricultural and pastoral area, Tacheng Prefecture, Xinjiang, China requires an in-depth study of grassland health to support conservation efforts and grazing management. However, the long-term spatiotemporal dynamics of grassland health and its driving forces across different grassland types remain insufficiently explored. This study constructs a “pressure-state-response” model using 15 indicators and employs spatial principal component analysis, the coefficient of variation, the Hurst index, spatial autocorrelation, and the geographic detector method to evaluate the spatiotemporal dynamics of grassland health and its driving forces inTacheng Prefecture from 2001 to 2020. The results indicate that: (1) Temporally, the grassland health index inTacheng Prefecture exhibits a fluctuating downward trend. The warning and collapse levels show opposite trends, whereas the sub-healthy and healthy levels remain relatively stable. (2) Spatially, the multi-year average grassland health levels transition from sub-healthy to warning and collapse states from west to east. Most grassland types predominantly fall within the sub-healthy category. (3) Regarding future trends, grassland health in Tacheng Prefecture is expected to continue declining, particularly in Tacheng City, southern Emin County, and northern Hoboksar Mongolian Autonomous County. (4) In terms of driving factors, vegetation is the primary determinant of grassland health, and factor interactions enhance its effects more significantly than single factors. Human activities and socio-economic factors also interact with vegetation, further influencing grassland health. These findings provide a theoretical basis and valuable reference for future grassland planning and management in Tacheng Prefecture.

Key words: “pressure-state-response” model, grassland health, Hurst index, geographic detector, Tacheng Prefecture