1957—2019年山西省暴雨时空分布特征与暴雨灾害风险评估

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2022.425

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用1957—2019年山西省27个气象站点逐日降水数据，使用小波分析等方法对山西省暴雨时空分布特征进行分析，并基于自然灾害理论使用决策分析法（AHP）进行暴雨灾害风险评估。结果表明：（1）从时间尺度上看，山西省暴雨发生时间呈现周期性和季节性；暴雨年际变化存在4 a、9 a、14~15 a和27~28 a 4个时间尺度震荡，且震荡周期在缩短，暴雨发生的频次呈增加趋势；暴雨季节分配不均匀，多集中在夏季且形成暴雨灾害的几率较大，每年6—8月期间累积暴雨日数占全年比重高达85.23%，其中7月占比最大，达到45.18%。（2）从空间尺度上看，暴雨多发生在山西省中南部和海拔较高的山区，整体呈现出由东南向西北递减的规律，地区差异明显；以恒山为界，以南区域强降水发生的概率以及暴雨量普遍要高于北部区域，其中垣曲、五台山、阳城年平均暴雨量在65 mm以上，累积暴雨日数超过60 d。（3）通过对山西省暴雨灾害风险进行评估，发现山西省暴雨灾害综合风险等级空间上呈现出由南向北逐渐递减的趋势，运城盆地东北部属于高风险区，而山西省东北、西北地区则属于低风险区，其余大部分地区属于中风险区和次高风险区。

关键词: 暴雨, 小波分析, 时空分布, 灾害风险评估, 山西省

Abstract:

Wavelet analysis and other methods were used to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of rainstorm in Shanxi Province of China based on the daily precipitation data of 27 meteorological stations in Shanxi Province from 1957 to 2019. Based on the theory of natural disaster, the decision analysis method (AHP) is used to conduct the risk assessment of rainstorm disasters. The following results were obtained: (1) Regarding the timescale, the time of rainstorm has presented periodicity and seasonality. The interannual variation of rainstorm has four-timescale oscillations of 4 years, 9 years, 14-15 years, and 27-28 years. The oscillation period shortened, and the frequency shows an increasing trend. Rainstorm season uneven distribution mostly concentrated in the summer and the probability of the formation of rainstorm disasters was great. The number of cumulative rainstorm days between June and August each year accounted for 85.23% of the total, with July accounting for the largest proportion of 45.18%. (2) Regarding the spatial scale, the rainstorm mostly occurs in the central and southern parts and the mountainous areas with higher altitudes, presenting a decreasing trend from southeast to northwest and obvious regional differences. The heavy rainfall and the amount of rainstorm in the south area show a high probability than the north area with Hengshan as the boundary, among which the annual average rainstorm is more than 65 mm in Yuanqu, Wutaishan, and Yangcheng meteorological stations, and the number of cumulative rainstorm days is over 60 days. (3) The result of the assessment of rainstorm disaster risk shows that the comprehensive risk classification of rainstorm disaster in Shanxi Province shows a decreasing trend from south to north. The northeast of the Yuncheng Basin belongs to the high-risk area, while the northeast and northwest of Shanxi Province belong to the low-risk area. The rest belong to the medium-risk and the sub-high-risk areas.

Key words: rainstorm, wavelet analysis, spatiotemporal distribution, disaster risk assessment, Shanxi Province

李乐乐, 钞锦龙, 赵德一, 李浩杰, 吴林栋, 李佳骏. 1957—2019年山西省暴雨时空分布特征与暴雨灾害风险评估[J]. 干旱区地理, 2023, 46(5): 689-699.

LI Lele, CHAO Jinlong, ZHAO Deyi, LI Haojie, WU Lindong, LI Jiajun. Spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of rainstorm and risk assessment of rainstorm disasters in Shanxi Province from 1957 to 2019[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(5): 689-699.

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准则层	致灾因子	孕灾环境	承灾体	防灾减灾能力	权重值 /%
致灾因子	1	4	5	7	58.098
孕灾环境	1/4	1	3	5	24.290
承灾体	1/5	1/3	1	3	12.011
防灾减灾能力	1/7	1/5	1/3	1	5.601
λ_max=4.180，CI=0.060，RI=0.890，CR=0.067<0.1

致灾因子	年均降雨量	年均暴雨日数	日最大降雨量	权重值/%
年均降雨量	1	1/7	1/3	8.331
年均暴雨日数	7	1	5	72.351
日最大降雨量	3	1/5	1	19.319
λ_max=3.066，CI=0.033，RI=0.520，CR=0.063<0.1

孕灾环境	海拔高程	地形坡度	河网密度	权重值/%
海拔高程	1	1/2	1/3	16.378
地形坡度	2	1	1/2	29.726
河网密度	3	2	1	53.896
λ_max=3.009，CI=0.005，RI=0.520，CR=0.009<0.1

承灾体	人口密度	地均GDP	耕地面积比	权重值/%
人口密度	1	2	3	53.896
地均GDP	1/2	1	2	29.726
耕地面积比	1/3	1/2	1	16.378
λ_max=3.009，CI=0.005，RI=0.520，CR=0.009<0.1

防灾减灾能力	人均GDP	权重值/%
人均GDP	1	100
λ_max=0，CI=RI=0