基于两种降水数据的苏巴什水库暴雨山洪淹没模拟及致灾临界雨量阈值研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2023.565

干旱区地理 ›› 2024, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (7): 1147-1155.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2023.565

基于两种降水数据的苏巴什水库暴雨山洪淹没模拟及致灾临界雨量阈值研究

张连成¹^,²(), 司嘉怡³, 胡列群⁴(), 王梅霞⁵, 张太西¹

1.新疆维吾尔自治区气候中心，新疆乌鲁木齐 830002
2.中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室，新疆乌鲁木齐 830011
3.新疆工程学院，新疆乌鲁木齐 830023
4.新疆维吾尔自治区气象服务中心，新疆乌鲁木齐 830002
5.中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院，甘肃兰州 730000

收稿日期:2023-10-11 修回日期:2023-12-06 出版日期:2024-07-25 发布日期:2024-07-30
通讯作者: 胡列群（1965-），男，大学本科，正研级高工，主要从事气象服务与气候变化研究. E-mail: hlq1965@163.com
作者简介:张连成（1990-），男，硕士研究生，高级工程师，主要从事气象灾害和气候变化研究. E-mail: Liancheng.Zhang@UGent.be
基金资助:
安徽省创新发展专项面上项目(CXM202110);新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金项目(2021D01B83);新疆气象科技创新发展基金项目(MS202207)

Simulation of storm flood inundation and critical rainfall threshold for disaster in Subash Reservoir based on two types of precipitation data

ZHANG Liancheng¹^,²(), SI Jiayi³, HU Liequn⁴(), WANG Meixia⁵, ZHANG Taixi¹

1. Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Climate Center, Urumqi 830002, Xinjiang, China
2. State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, Xinjiang, China
3. Xinjiang Institute of Engineering, Urumqi 830023, Xinjiang, China
4. Xinjiang Meteorological Service Center, Urumqi 830002, Xinjiang, China
5. Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China

Received:2023-10-11 Revised:2023-12-06 Published:2024-07-25 Online:2024-07-30

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

以阿克苏地区苏巴什水库为研究对象，采用多源降水融合数据、雨量站数据、数字高程模型（DEM）数据以及土地利用数据等资料，运用FloodArea模型对苏巴什水库典型暴雨山洪淹没过程进行精细化模拟，通过淹没深度和汇水量2个参量，对比分析2种降水数据源模拟效果，在此基础上，构建了降水-淹没深度关系模型，得出冲砂闸底板高程、汛限水位、泄洪闸堰顶高程和坝顶高程对应的致灾临界雨量阈值。结果表明：以多源降水融合数据驱动的FloodArea模型模拟苏巴什水库淹没深度和计算汇水量较雨量站模拟的精度更高，更接近真实值，多源降水融合数据和雨量站降水数据模拟得到的淹没深度误差率分别为8.59%和18.67%。苏巴什水库淹没水位达到冲砂闸底板高程、汛限水位、泄洪闸堰顶高程和坝顶高程对应累积4 h降水量的致灾临界雨量阈值分别为7.1 mm、20.1 mm、32.9 mm和44.7 mm。研究结果可为苏巴什水库暴雨山洪预警提供理论依据，并提升暴雨山洪预警能力。

关键词: 暴雨山洪, 淹没模拟, 致灾临界雨量, 苏巴什水库

Abstract:

This study focuses on the Subash Reservoir area in the Aksu Prefecture, Xinjiang, China, employing various data sources, including merged precipitation, rainfall station, digital elevation model, and land-use data. Using the FloodArea model, a refined simulation of typical torrential rain-induced flood processes in the Subash Reservoir is conducted. By analyzing the inundation depth and runoff volume, and the simulation results of two precipitation data sources are compared, and a precipitation-inundation depth relationship model is established, determining critical rainfall thresholds corresponding to the sediment-flushing gate bottom elevation, flood limit water level, spillway gate weir top elevation, and dam crest elevation. The results reveal that the FloodArea model driven by multi-source precipitation fusion data has higher accuracy and closer approximation to the actual values for the inundation depth and calculated runoff volume in the Subash Reservoir than the model driven by rain gauge precipitation data. The error simulation rates for inundation depth of the two kind of data are 8.59% and 18.67%, respectively. The cumulative 4-hour precipitation thresholds for reaching inundation levels corresponding to the sediment-flushing gate bottom elevation, flood limit water level, spillway gate weir top elevation, and dam crest elevation of the Subash Reservoir are 7.1 mm, 20.1 mm, 32.9 mm, and 44.7 mm, respectively. The results provide a theoretical reference for torrential rain-induced early flood warning in the Subash Reservoir region to enhance the capability of early flood warning for such scenarios.

Key words: torrential rain-induced floods, inundation simulation, critical rainfall threshold, Subash Reservoir

张连成, 司嘉怡, 胡列群, 王梅霞, 张太西. 基于两种降水数据的苏巴什水库暴雨山洪淹没模拟及致灾临界雨量阈值研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2024, 47(7): 1147-1155.

ZHANG Liancheng, SI Jiayi, HU Liequn, WANG Meixia, ZHANG Taixi. Simulation of storm flood inundation and critical rainfall threshold for disaster in Subash Reservoir based on two types of precipitation data[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(7): 1147-1155.

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序号	经度/°E	纬度/°N	实测淹没深度/m	模拟淹没深度/m
序号	经度/°E	纬度/°N	实测淹没深度/m	多源降水融合数据	气象站点降水数据
1	78.92	40.57	0.79	0.83	0.53
2	78.92	40.57	0.30	0.38	0.17
3	78.90	40.55	0.31	0.40	0.27
4	78.82	40.53	0.17	0.22	0.13
5	78.79	40.52	0.49	0.53	0.29
6	78.79	40.52	0.52	0.58	0.43
7	78.79	40.52	0.59	0.62	0.47
8	78.79	40.52	0.32	0.37	0.38
9	78.76	40.52	0.50	0.48	0.38
10	78.75	40.51	0.17	0.22	0.07
11	78.75	40.51	0.33	0.29	0.23
12	78.75	40.51	0.35	0.42	0.32
13	78.73	40.50	0.40	0.45	0.28
14	78.92	40.56	0.31	0.34	0.23
15	78.92	40.56	0.43	0.45	0.44
16	78.92	40.56	0.28	0.28	0.23
17	78.92	40.56	0.21	0.21	0.19
18	78.92	40.56	0.36	0.36	0.35
19	78.92	40.56	0.35	0.36	0.34
20	78.92	40.56	0.24	0.25	0.24

指标参数	冲砂闸底板高程	汛限水位	泄洪闸堰顶高程	坝顶高程
距海平面高度/m	1293.0	1302.0	1310.8	1319.0
距地面高度/m	3.0	12.0	20.8	29.0
致灾临界雨量阈值/mm	7.1	20.1	32.9	44.7

基于两种降水数据的苏巴什水库暴雨山洪淹没模拟及致灾临界雨量阈值研究

Simulation of storm flood inundation and critical rainfall threshold for disaster in Subash Reservoir based on two types of precipitation data

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