1961—2020年宁夏干旱事件年代际变化及风险评估

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2023.514

干旱区地理 ›› 2024, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (5): 785-797.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2023.514

1961—2020年宁夏干旱事件年代际变化及风险评估

王岱¹^,²(), 崔洋¹^,³(), 王素艳¹^,², 张雯¹^,²

1.中国气象局旱区特色农业气象灾害监测预警与风险管理重点实验室，宁夏银川 750002
2.宁夏回族自治区气候中心，宁夏银川 750002
3.宁夏回族自治区气象科学研究所，宁夏银川 750002

收稿日期:2023-09-19 修回日期:2023-11-20 出版日期:2024-05-25 发布日期:2024-05-30
通讯作者: 崔洋（1982-），男，博士，正高级工程师，主要从事气候与气候变化研究. E-mail: cuiyang@cma.gov.cn
作者简介:王岱（1990-），女，硕士，工程师，主要从事气候变化及气象灾害风险研究. E-mail: wangd123@126.com
基金资助:
宁夏自然科学基金项目(2023AAC03792);宁夏自然科学基金项目(2022AAC05065);中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2024J043);中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2023J052);第七批自治区青年科技人才托举工程项目资助

Interdecadal changes and risk assessment of drought events in Ningxia from 1961 to 2020

WANG Dai¹^,²(), CUI Yang¹^,³(), WANG Suyan¹^,², ZHANG Wen¹^,²

1. Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Monitoring and Early Warning and Risk Management of Characteristic Agriculture in Arid Regions, China Meteorological Administration, Yinchuan 750002, Ningxia, China
2. Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region Climate Center, Yinchuan 750002, Ningxia, China
3. The Institute of Meteorological Science of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, Yinchuan 750002, Ningxia, China

Received:2023-09-19 Revised:2023-11-20 Published:2024-05-25 Online:2024-05-30

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用1961—2020年宁夏20个国家气象站气象观测资料，结合近40 a宁夏社会经济统计数据，建立宁夏干旱过程事件指标，并基于灾害风险评估理论建立宁夏年代际干旱灾害风险评估模型，分析宁夏干旱事件和主要农作物干旱灾害风险的年代际变化特征和区域差异性，并探讨造成区域农作物年代际风险变化的可能影响因素。结果表明：（1）近60 a宁夏干旱事件的累积效应、持续时间以及强度指标具有明显的年代际变化特征，宁夏中北部和南部山区分别在1980年和2010年前后出现趋势和均值的突变；干旱事件指标及致灾危险性指标大值区空间范围均呈现出增加-减少-增加-减少的变化特征。（2） 20世纪80年代以来，宁夏不同地区玉米干旱灾害风险等级依次为引黄灌区>中部干旱带>南部山区，受玉米种植面积不断扩大和国内生产总值（GDP）持续增加影响，在中南部地区其干旱风险呈逐年代际增大趋势；小麦干旱灾害风险增加幅度为中部干旱带>南部山区>引黄灌区，致灾危险性、小麦种植面积及GDP等级较高是2010s中部干旱带部分地区干旱风险增大的主要原因。（3）面对未来宁夏中南部地区水资源短缺和灌溉用水不足的挑战，建议通过提高人工增雨能力、开发种植品种、退耕或移民等措施，减少干旱致灾危险性、孕灾环境脆弱性和承灾体暴露度，从而降低当地玉米和小麦的干旱灾害风险等级。研究结果可为地方科学规划农业生产、高效利用水资源、抗旱救灾等提供科学理论依据，促进宁夏黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展先行区建设。

关键词: 干旱事件, 年代际变化, 灾害风险评估, 宁夏

Abstract:

Utilizing meteorological observation data from 20 national meteorological stations in Ningxia, China, spanning from 1961 to 2020, along with socioeconomic statistical data from the past four decades, this study established indicators for drought process events in Ningxia. Subsequently, it developed an interdecadal drought disaster risk assessment model in line with disaster risk assessment theory. The study analyzed the interdecadal variation characteristics and regional differences of drought events and the associated risks to major crops in Ningxia, aiming to identify the factors influencing regional crop interdecadal risk changes. The findings are as follows: (1) The cumulative effect, duration, and intensity indicators of drought events in Ningxia over the past six decades exhibit distinct interdecadal variation characteristics, with notable shifts in trends and mean values in the central northern region and southern mountainous areas around 1980 and 2010, respectively. Additionally, the spatial distribution of high-value areas for drought event and disaster risk indicators demonstrated a pattern of initial increase, followed by a decrease, another increase, and a final decrease over the decades. (2) Since the 1980s, the risk levels of corn drought disasters in Ningxia’s regions, in descending order, are the Yellow River irrigation area, the central arid zone, and the southern mountainous area. Influenced by the continuous expansion of the corn planting area and the growth of the gross domestic product (GDP), the drought risk levels in the central and southern regions have seen an interdecadal increase. Moreover, the increase amplitude in wheat drought disaster risk levels, in descending order, are the central arid zone, the southern mountainous area, and the Yellow River irrigation area. The primary reasons for the heightened drought risk in parts of the central arid zone during the 2010s include the confluence of high disaster risk, wheat planting area, and GDP. (3) Given the future challenges of water scarcity and inadequate irrigation in Ningxia’s central and southern regions, it is advisable to adopt measures such as enhancing artificial rainfall capabilities, developing new crop varieties, and encouraging farmland returning to forestry and grassland or migration to mitigate the disaster risk. These strategies aim to reduce the induced disaster risk, disaster bearing body exposure and pregnant environment vulnerability, thereby lowering the drought disaster risk levels for local corn and wheat production. The insights from this analysis offer a scientific foundation for the region’s strategic agricultural planning, efficient water use, drought mitigation, and disaster response efforts, contributing to the ecological protection and high-quality development initiatives in the Yellow River Basin of Ningxia.

Key words: drought events, interdecadal changes, disaster risk assessment, Ningxia

王岱, 崔洋, 王素艳, 张雯. 1961—2020年宁夏干旱事件年代际变化及风险评估[J]. 干旱区地理, 2024, 47(5): 785-797.

WANG Dai, CUI Yang, WANG Suyan, ZHANG Wen. Interdecadal changes and risk assessment of drought events in Ningxia from 1961 to 2020[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(5): 785-797.

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指标名称	定义
干旱过程	当某站连续10 d以上出现轻旱及以上等级干旱，且至少有一天达到中旱及以上等级。
干旱过程开始日	干旱过程时段内第一次出现轻旱及以上等级的日期，为干旱过程开始日。
干旱过程结束日	干旱过程发生后，当连续10 d干旱等级为无旱时，则干旱过程结束，干旱过程结束前最后一天干旱等级为轻旱及以上的日期为干旱过程结束日。
干旱过程持续日数	某站干旱过程开始日到结束日（含结束日）的总天数。

1961—2020年宁夏干旱事件年代际变化及风险评估

Interdecadal changes and risk assessment of drought events in Ningxia from 1961 to 2020

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