基于混合损失超越曲线的省域气象灾害农业风险评估

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2022.443

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

近年来，全球减轻灾害风险战略对广布型灾害风险的认知以及地方尺度上持续优先管控密集型灾害风险的效能引发了学术界和应急管理利益相关者对灾害风险管理理论与实践的争议。通过分析山西省1983—2019年历史气象灾害特征，提出运用混合损失超越曲线（HLEC）估算中国省域气象灾害年均农业经济损失（AAL）和典型重现期情景下的最大农业经济损失（OEP），全面准确地反映气象灾害农业风险水平。结果表明：（1）山西省气象灾害AAL达22.22×10⁸元，单次灾害OEP超过0.15×10⁸元，即全省全年和受损县区单次“灾害防治及应急管理支出”储备分别不低于22.22×10⁸元和0.15×10⁸元。（2） HLEC在省域尺度上的灾害风险评估有效，在地级市和县区尺度上的适用性和有效率接近60%。（3）山西省97%以上的历史气象灾害为广布型灾害，造成超过95%的农业受灾面积和农业经济损失，相应的AAL和OEP占比均超过85%，广布型灾害风险是省域减轻灾害风险和灾害风险管理的重点。籍此，本研究初步证实了地方或基层减轻广布型灾害风险的必要性（为什么管），讨论了传统应急管控广布型灾害风险不足的原因（不敢管、管不了和不想管），提出了及时应对广布型灾害风险和避免其累积带来社会经济影响的意义（如永久脱贫、高质量城市化、可持续发展），拟为各级政府和应急管理部门制定减轻灾害风险和灾害风险管理策略提供正确方向，为提高城市、社区和家庭的灾害韧性提供决策参考。

关键词: 混合损失超越曲线, 气象灾害, 广布型灾害风险, 农业经济损失, 山西省

Abstract:

In recent years, the recognition of the global disaster risk reduction (DRR) strategy on high-frequency and low loss extensive disaster risk and the query on the effectiveness of continuously giving priority to the management and control of low-frequency and high loss intensive disaster risk at a local scale have caused disputes on the theory and practice of disaster risk management (DRM) among academic and emergency management stakeholders. Therefore, this study conducted an empirical study on the agricultural risk assessment of meteorological disasters based on the hybrid loss exceedance curve (HLEC) in Shanxi Province, China. This paper identifies the characteristics of extensive and intensive meteorological disasters in Shanxi Province, demonstrating the comprehensiveness and accuracy of the HLEC replacing the retrospective loss exceedance curve and the prospective loss exceedance curve in measuring average annual agricultural economic loss (AAL). The following results are obtained: (1) The AAL of meteorological disasters in Shanxi Province is 2.22 billion Yuan, and the occurrence loss exceedance probability (OEP) for a single time exceeds 15 million Yuan, that is, the reserves of “meteorological disaster prevention and emergency management expenditure” for the whole year and the damaged counties and districts are not less than 2.22 billion Yuan and 15 million Yuan, respectively. (2) The HLEC model is effective in disaster risk assessment at the provincial level, and its applicability and efficiency at the prefecture-level city and county level are close to 60%. (3) More than 97% of the historical meteorological disasters in Shanxi Province are extensive disasters with high-frequency and low impact, resulting in more than 95% of the agricultural disaster areas and agricultural economic losses. The corresponding AAL and OEP account for more than 85%. The risk of extensive disasters is a real and cumulative risk in the province. Moreover, its consequences, such as poverty, welfare reduction, infectious diseases, and health deterioration, should attract the attention of DRR and DRM. Therefore, this study preliminarily confirmed the necessity of local or grassroots level to reduce the extensive risk (why to manage it), discussed the reasons for the lack of traditional emergency management and control of the extensive risk (dare not manage, cannot manage, and do not want to manage), and proposed the significance of timely response to the extensive risk and avoiding its cumulative socioeconomic impact (such as permanent poverty alleviation, high-quality urbanization, sustainable development). It is intended to provide the right direction for governments at all levels and emergency management departments to formulate DRR and DRM strategies and provide decision-making reference to improve the disaster resilience of cities, communities, and families.

Key words: hybrid loss exceedance curve (HLEC), meteorological disasters, extensive disaster risk, agricultural economic losses, Shanxi Province

刘耀龙,何冰晶,张华明,王军. 基于混合损失超越曲线的省域气象灾害农业风险评估[J]. 干旱区地理, 2023, 46(5): 711-718.

LIU Yaolong,HE Bingjing,ZHANG Huaming,WANG Jun. Agricultural risk assessment of meteorological disasters at provincial level based on hybrid loss exceedance curve[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(5): 711-718.

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灾害类型	频数/次	死亡人数 /人	受伤人数 /人	倒塌房屋 /10⁴间	损坏房屋 /10⁴间	直接经济损失 /10⁸元	农业受灾面积 /10⁴hm²	农业经济损失 /10⁸元
广布型灾害	5097.00	917.00	6677.00	21.56	7.98	725.65	1987.97	374.68
广布型灾害	（97.03%）	（71.41%）	（69.63%）	（49.36%）	（9.03%）	（90.92%）	（96.23%）	（95.75%）
密集型灾害	156.00	367.00	2912.00	22.12	80.47	72.47	77.98	19.63
密集型灾害	（2.97%）	（28.59%）	（30.37%）	（50.64%）	（90.97%）	（9.08%）	（3.87%）	（4.25%）
总计	5253.00	1284.00	9589.00	43.68	88.45	798.12	2065.95	391.31
总计	（100.00%）	（100.00%）	（100.00%）	（100.00%）	（100.00%）	（100.00%）	（100.00%）	（100.00%）

空间尺度		RLEC	PLEC	HLEC
省域	山西省	22.68	10.57	22.22
地级市	太原市	0.45	0.21	0.25
	大同市	2.85	1.38	1.25
	运城市	4.00	1.94	3.90
	晋城市	0.39	0.18	0.70
	阳泉市	0.37	0.39	0.37
	长治市	1.47	0.93	1.35
	朔州市	0.42	0.33	0.25
	晋中市	1.25	1.05	1.10
	忻州市	3.04	1.64	3.19
	临汾市	2.43	1.36	2.63
	吕梁市	3.05	1.38	3.06
县（区）	原平市	1.39	0.61	1.33
	盐湖区	0.35	0.88	0.42
	汾阳市	0.42	0.52	0.47
	阳高县	0.34	0.86	0.39
	隰县	0.16	0.11	0.43
	大同县	0.15	1.01	0.23
	长子县	0.15	0.90	0.19
	襄汾县	0.29	0.44	0.28
	保德县	0.38	0.39	0.61
	孝义市	0.28	0.28	0.29

重现期/a	年超越概率/%	农业经济损失/10⁸元
		AEP			OEP
		RLEC	PLEC	HLEC	PLEC
1	100.0	-	0.85	-	0.15
2	50.0	6.50	4.20	5.93	0.92
5	20.0	20.89	16.46	23.14	2.61
10	10.0	31.77	28.52	36.16	4.06
20	5.0	42.65	41.86	49.17	5.58
50	2.0	57.04	60.69	66.38	7.65
100	1.0	67.92	75.54	79.40	9.25
200	0.5	78.80	90.76	92.42	10.87
500	0.2	93.19	111.32	109.63	13.05
1000	0.1	104.07	127.12	122.64	14.70