内蒙古NPP时空特征分析及多情景下的预测研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.250

干旱区地理 ›› 2026, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (6): 1180-1191.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.250 cstr: 32274.14.ALG2025250

内蒙古NPP时空特征分析及多情景下的预测研究

曲学斌¹(), 乌尼尔¹(), 赵悦晨², 牛冬³, 王雅莹¹, 刘新²

¹ 呼伦贝尔市气象局，内蒙古呼伦贝尔 021008
² 内蒙古自治区气候中心，内蒙古呼和浩特 010051
³ 内蒙古自治区气象服务中心，内蒙古呼和浩特 010051

收稿日期:2025-05-06 修回日期:2025-07-16 出版日期:2026-06-25 发布日期:2026-06-29
通讯作者: 乌尼尔（1980-），女，本科，高级工程师，主要从事牧业气象等方面的研究. E-mail: wunier_317@163.com
作者简介:曲学斌（1988-），男，硕士，高级工程师，主要从事应用气象与生态遥感等方面的研究. E-mail: qxbtd@sohu.com
基金资助:
内蒙古自治区自然科学基金项目(2024LHMS04012);内蒙古自治区自然科学基金项目(2023LHMS04016);呼伦贝尔市科技计划项目(ST2024007);呼伦贝尔市科技计划项目(ST2024006);内蒙古自治区气象局科技创新项目(nmqxkjcx202508)

Spatiotemporal analysis and multi-scenario projections of NPP in Inner Mongolia

QU Xuebin¹(), WU Nier¹(), ZHAO Yuechen², NIU Dong³, WANG Yaying¹, LIU Xin²

¹ Hulunbuir Meteorological Bureau, Hulunbuir 021008, Inner Mongolia, China
² Inner Mongolia Climate Center, Hohhot 010051, Inner Mongolia, China
³ Inner Mongolia Meteorological Service Center, Hohhot 010051, Inner Mongolia, China

Received:2025-05-06 Revised:2025-07-16 Published:2026-06-25 Online:2026-06-29

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

内蒙古地区作为中国北方重要的生态安全屏障，科学分析和评估区域植被净初级生产力（NPP）的演变规律对生态安全与碳管理意义重大。基于第6次国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP6）多模式数据，结合MOD17A3的NPP数据集和ERA5-Land再分析气温、降水资料，采用Sen趋势分析、Lasso回归建模和Delta降尺度方法，系统评估内蒙古地区NPP时空演变规律，并对2025—2100年4种情景下的NPP变化趋势进行预测。结果表明：（1） 2001—2024年内蒙古年均NPP为277.4 g C·m^-2，呈现“东北高-西南低”的空间分布，其中20.7%区域呈显著或极显著增加趋势，气候暖湿化是驱动东部草原区NPP增加的主要因素之一。（2） Delta降尺度后可有效提升CMIP6模式的准确度和空间分辨率，结合泰勒图筛选确定在内蒙古地区EC-Earth3-Veg-LR模式的表现最优，并以此驱动基于Lasso方法构建的NPP-气象多元回归模型，对未来NPP的时空演变进行预测。（3） 4种情景下内蒙古地区的NPP均呈现波动上升趋势，但增幅和空间分布存在明显差异。SSP1-2.6情景下NPP平均增加最多，且对促进区域NPP均衡增长方面最具优势，其次为SSP2-4.5情景。SSP3-7.0情景下NPP变化显著区域占比最小，整体以波动为主。SSP5-8.5情景下虽然整体NPP也呈增加趋势，但会加剧NPP的空间差异，可能对区域生态系统的稳定性造成潜在威胁。

关键词: CMIP6, NPP, 气候预测, 内蒙古

Abstract:

Global warming caused by climate change currently exerts a profound impact on terrestrial ecosystem productivity. As a core indicator of the carbon sequestration capacity of vegetation, spatiotemporal changes in net primary productivity (NPP) directly influence regional carbon-sink functions and ecosystem stability. As an important ecological security barrier in northern China, Inner Mongolia encompasses diverse ecosystems, such as grasslands, forests, and deserts. Its NPP is particularly sensitive to climate change, and any abnormal fluctuations may significantly compromise regional ecological balance and carbon cycling. This study integrated multimodel Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) projections, the MOD17A3 NPP dataset, and ERA5-Land reanalysis temperature and precipitation data to systematically analyze spatiotemporal NPP patterns in Inner Mongolia (2001—2024), projecting trends (2025—2100) under four shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. We employed Sen’s trend analysis to quantify historical changes and utilized the Delta downscaling method to enhance the accuracy and spatial resolution of CMIP6 climate projections. We also applied Lasso regression to construct a robust multivariate NPP, namely the meteorological relationship model. Taylor diagram analysis was used to identify EC-Earth3-Veg-LR as the best-performing CMIP6 model for the region; this model was subsequently used to drive Lasso-based projections. Results indicated that the annual average NPP between 2001 and 2024 was 277.4 g C·m^-2, exhibiting a distinct spatial pattern characterized by a “northwest-high, southwest-low” spatial gradient. NPP increased significantly (P<0.05) or extremely significantly (P<0.01) across 20.7% of the region, driven mainly by climatic warming and humidification, particularly in eastern grasslands. Critically, Delta downscaling significantly resolved CMIP6 projections for regional-scale analysis. Additionally, our projections revealed an oscillatory increase in regional NPP across all four SSP scenarios, although with notable magnitude and spatial heterogeneity differences. The SSP1-2.6 (sustainability) pathway projected the highest average NPP increase and the most balanced spatial growth across the region. The SSP2-4.5 (middle of the road) scenario also showed substantial gains, albeit these were less uniformly distributed. The SSP3-7.0 (regional rivalry) scenario exhibited the smallest area of significant NPP change, dominated primarily by fluctuation rather than strong upward trends. While the SSP5-8.5 (fossil-fueled development) scenario projected an overall NPP increase, it was characterized by the most pronounced spatial disparities, potentially threatening regional ecosystem stability by exacerbating imbalances. This study quantifies NPP evolutionary trends, providing reliable scenario-prediction results based on climate-projection data, offering an important scientific basis for formulating climate-adaptive ecological management strategies, carbon sequestration planning, and related policies in this ecologically sensitive and strategically significant region.

Key words: CMIP6, NPP, climate projection, Inner Mongolia

曲学斌, 乌尼尔, 赵悦晨, 牛冬, 王雅莹, 刘新. 内蒙古NPP时空特征分析及多情景下的预测研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2026, 49(6): 1180-1191.

QU Xuebin, WU Nier, ZHAO Yuechen, NIU Dong, WANG Yaying, LIU Xin. Spatiotemporal analysis and multi-scenario projections of NPP in Inner Mongolia[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(6): 1180-1191.

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序号	气候模式	研究机构	国家	分辨率/(°)
1	ACCESS-CM2	ACCESS	澳大利亚	1.875×1.250
2	AWI-CM-1-1-MR	AWI	德国	0.938×0.938
3	BCC-CSM2-MR	BCC、CMA	中国	1.125×1.125
4	CESM2	NCAR	美国	1.250×0.938
5	CNRM-CM6-1-HR	CNRM	法国	0.500×0.500
6	EC-Earth3-Veg-LR	EC-Earth	瑞典	1.125×1.125
7	FGOALS-f3-L	CAS-IAP	中国	2.250×1.875
8	GFDL-ESM4	GFDL	美国	1.250×1.000
9	MIROC6	MIROC	日本	1.406×1.406
10	MRI-ESM2-0	MRI	日本	1.125×1.125
11	NorESM2-MM	NCC	挪威	1.250×0.938

要素	1月	2月	3月	4月	5月	6月	7月	8月	9月	10月	11月	12月
气温	0.173	0.236	0.394^*	0.340^*	0.248	0.403^*	0.305	0.438^*	0.250	0.203	0.211	0.235
降水	0.307	0.183	0.261	0.256	0.346^*	0.390^*	0.472^*	0.355^*	0.328	0.302	0.309	0.303

内蒙古NPP时空特征分析及多情景下的预测研究

Spatiotemporal analysis and multi-scenario projections of NPP in Inner Mongolia

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