暖湿化背景下中国天山气候风险动态评估和多情景预估

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.328

干旱区地理 ›› 2026, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (6): 1135-1146.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.328 cstr: 32274.14.ALG2025328

暖湿化背景下中国天山气候风险动态评估和多情景预估

潘永毅¹(), 李雪梅¹^,²^,³(), 孙钦珂¹^,²^,³, 姜筱筱¹, 高鸿¹^,²^,³, 梁小健¹

¹ 兰州交通大学测绘与地理信息学院，甘肃兰州 730070
² 地理国情监测技术应用国家地方联合工程研究中心，甘肃兰州 730070
³ 甘肃省测绘科学与技术重点实验室，甘肃兰州 730070

收稿日期:2025-06-05 修回日期:2025-09-05 出版日期:2026-06-25 发布日期:2026-06-29
通讯作者: 李雪梅（1983-），女，博士，教授，主要从事气候变化及其影响等方面的研究. E-mail: lixuemei@mail.lzjtu.cn
作者简介:潘永毅（2001-），男，硕士研究生，主要从事遥感科学与技术等方面的研究. E-mail: 11240869@stu.lzjtu.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(42261026);西部之光人才培养计划(25JR6KA005);新疆干旱区水循环与水利用重点实验室开放基金(XJYS0907-2023-01)

Dynamic assessment and multi-scenario projection of climate risk in the Tianshan Mountains of China under the background of warming and humidification

PAN Yongyi¹(), LI Xuemei¹^,²^,³(), SUN Qinke¹^,²^,³, JIANG Xiaoxiao¹, GAO Hong¹^,²^,³, LIANG Xiaojian¹

¹ Faculty of Geomatics, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, Gansu, China
² National-Local Joint Engineering Research Center of Technologies and Applications for National Geographic State Monitoring, Lanzhou 730070, Gansu, China
³ Key Laboratory of Science and Technology in Surveying & Mapping, Gansu Province, Lanzhou 730070, Gansu, China

Received:2025-06-05 Revised:2025-09-05 Published:2026-06-25 Online:2026-06-29

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

构建完善的气候风险评估体系对区域气候变化评估和预测具有重要意义，然而以往研究多聚焦于气候灾害或气候变化，较少涉及综合气候风险指数（Climate risk index，CRI）。基于1961—2020年26个气象站点观测资料和第6次国际耦合模式比较计划（Coupled model intercomparison project phose，CMIP6）多模式平均资料，以干旱指数、高温指数、低温冻结指数和温湿指数4个气候风险指标为基础构建CRI，对中国天山气候风险进行综合评估和预测。结果表明：（1）过去60 a，中国天山气温和降水均呈持续上升态势，暖湿化趋势显著。（2） CRI明显上升，过去60 a中国天山气候风险显著增加。中国天山地区大部分区域处于中等及以下气候风险等级，中部与北部风险水平相对较低，而东部与西南部则表现出较高的气候风险。（3） CMIP6多模式平均数据对中国天山气温和降水模拟效果较好，可用于天山气候风险预测分析。SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5 2种情景下CRI呈现持续上升趋势，表明中国天山未来气候风险将会增加，但东部气候风险显著高于西部。

关键词: CMIP6, 暖湿化, 综合气候风险指数, 中国天山

Abstract:

Establishing a comprehensive climate risk assessment framework is essential for evaluating and predicting regional climate change. However, previous studies have primarily focused on climate disasters or climate change in isolation, with limited attention given to the comprehensive climate risk index (CRI). To address this gap, this study examines the Tianshan Mountains of China and develops a CRI based on four climate risk indicators: Drought, high temperature, low temperature, and temperature-humidity. This analysis utilizes observational data from 26 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2020, along with multi-model ensemble data from CMIP6, to conduct an integrated assessment and provide future projections of climate risks in the area. The results show that (1) Over the past 60 years, both temperature and precipitation in the Tianshan Mountains have steadily increased, demonstrating a significant warming and wetting trend. (2) The CRI has risen substantially, reflecting an increased climate risk in the Tianshan Mountains over the last six decades. Most areas in the Tianshan Mountains are categorized as having medium or lower climate risk, with the central and northern parts exhibiting relatively low risk levels, whereas the eastern and southwestern areas exhibit higher climate risks. (3) The CMIP6 multi-model ensemble data accurately simulate temperature and precipitation patterns in the Tianshan Mountains, making it suitable for future climate risk projection analysis. Under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the CRI is expected to continue to rise, indicating that climate risk in the Tianshan Mountains will increase, with the eastern part facing significantly greater risks than the western part.

Key words: CMIP6, warming and humidification, comprehensive climate risk index, Tianshan Mountains of China

潘永毅, 李雪梅, 孙钦珂, 姜筱筱, 高鸿, 梁小健. 暖湿化背景下中国天山气候风险动态评估和多情景预估[J]. 干旱区地理, 2026, 49(6): 1135-1146.

PAN Yongyi, LI Xuemei, SUN Qinke, JIANG Xiaoxiao, GAO Hong, LIANG Xiaojian. Dynamic assessment and multi-scenario projection of climate risk in the Tianshan Mountains of China under the background of warming and humidification[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(6): 1135-1146.

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编号	模式名称	所属国家	分辨率/(°)
1	ACCESS-ESM1-5	澳大利亚	1.875×1.250
2	CanESM5	加拿大	2.8×2.8
3	NorESM2-MM	挪威	2.5×1.9
4	CNRM-CM5	法国	1.4×1.4
5	BCC_CSM1.1	中国	2.8×2.8

T_max/℃	T_g	T_min/℃	T_d
35≤T_max<37	等级1	25≤T_min<28	等级1
37≤T_max<40	等级2	28≤T_min<30	等级2
40≤T_max	等级3	30≤T_min	等级3

目标层	评价指标	权重
中国天山气候风险评估预测	干旱指数	0.42
	高温指数	0.30
	低温冻结指数	0.16
	温湿指数	0.12

暖湿化背景下中国天山气候风险动态评估和多情景预估

Dynamic assessment and multi-scenario projection of climate risk in the Tianshan Mountains of China under the background of warming and humidification

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