中国“生态-旅游-文化”系统协调发展与影响路径

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.101

干旱区地理 ›› 2026, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (1): 94-105.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.101 cstr: 32274.14.ALG2025101

中国“生态-旅游-文化”系统协调发展与影响路径

白洋¹^,²(), 唐诚²(), 陈明珠², 彭利³, 赵平²

1 新疆历史文化旅游可持续发展重点实验室，新疆乌鲁木齐 830046
2 新疆大学旅游学院，新疆乌鲁木齐 830046
3 新疆大学经济与管理学院，新疆乌鲁木齐 830046

收稿日期:2025-02-28 修回日期:2025-04-07 出版日期:2026-01-25 发布日期:2026-01-18
通讯作者: 唐诚（1996-），男，硕士研究生，主要从事旅游经济研究. E-mail: tangcheng9622@163.com
作者简介:白洋（1982-），男，博士，副教授，主要从事旅游地理研究. E-mail: baiyang@xju.edu.cn
基金资助:
新疆维吾尔自治区社会科学基金项目(2024BMZ096);新疆大学研究生教育教学改革项目(XJDX2024YJG24);新疆维吾尔自治区研究生科研创新项目(XJ2024G067);新疆维吾尔自治区研究生科研创新项目(XJ2025G065)

Coordinated development and influence paths of “ecology-tourism-culture” system in China

BAI Yang¹^,²(), TANG Cheng²(), CHEN Mingzhu², PENG Li³, ZHAO Ping²

1 Key Laboratory of the Sustainable Development of Xinjiang’s Historical and Cultural Tourism, Urumqi 830046, Xinjiang, China
2 College of Tourism, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, Xinjiang, China
3 College of Economics and Management, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, Xinjiang, China

Received:2025-02-28 Revised:2025-04-07 Published:2026-01-25 Online:2026-01-18

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

生态、旅游和文化3个子系统构成交互作用的复杂系统，系统协调发展对于推动区域可持续发展具有重要意义。基于2011—2022年中国31个省域面板数据，构建“生态-旅游-文化”系统综合发展评价指标体系，运用综合评价函数模型、耦合协调度模型与模糊集定性比较分析法，探究系统协调发展的时空分异与影响路径。结果表明：（1）各子系统综合发展水平趋势各异，指数均值的比较排序为自然生态>生态>社会生态>文化>旅游，生态子系统尚有承载空间。（2）“生态-旅游-文化”系统整体耦合协调度呈现“下降-上升”循环交替态势，由2011年的0.507波动上升至2022年的0.526，在濒临失调与勉强协调等级之间波动，区域耦合协调度的比较排序为东部>中部>东北>西部，呈现“东南高、西北低”的分布特征。（3）高协调发展类型有多元发展型、政府主导产业型与经济-市场-科技驱动型，非高协调发展为政府-科技局限型。

关键词: “生态-旅游-文化”系统, 协调发展, 影响路径, 中国

Abstract:

The three subsystems of ecology, tourism, and culture form an interactive complex system, and their coordinated development is essential for promoting regional sustainable development. Using panel data from 31 Chinese provinces from 2011 to 2022, this study constructs a comprehensive development evaluation index system for the “ecology-tourism-culture” system. The comprehensive evaluation function model, coordination degree model, and fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis method are employed to examine the spatiotemporal differentiation and influence paths of coordinated development within the system. The results indicate the following: (1) The comprehensive development levels of the three subsystems vary, and the comparison order of index mean is natural ecology>ecology>social ecology>culture>tourism. Throughout this period, the ecological subsystem continues to demonstrate carrying capacity. (2) The overall coupling coordination degree of the “ecology-tourism-culture” system exhibits a cyclic alternating trend of “decline-increase”, rising from 0.507 in 2011 to 0.526 in 2022 and fluctuating between near imbalance and barely coordinated levels. The comparative ranking of regional coupling coordination degree is eastern>central>northeast>western, reflecting a distribution characterized by “high in the southeast and low in the northwest”. (3) The types of highly coordinated development include diversified development, government-led industry, and economy-market-technology driven paths, whereas non-highly coordinated development is constrained by government and technology limitations.

Key words: “ecology-tourism-culture” system, coordinated development, influence paths, China

白洋, 唐诚, 陈明珠, 彭利, 赵平. 中国“生态-旅游-文化”系统协调发展与影响路径[J]. 干旱区地理, 2026, 49(1): 94-105.

BAI Yang, TANG Cheng, CHEN Mingzhu, PENG Li, ZHAO Ping. Coordinated development and influence paths of “ecology-tourism-culture” system in China[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(1): 94-105.

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子系统	一级指标	二级指标	指标性质
生态	自然生态	废水排放量/10⁴ t	负
		SO₂排量/10⁴ t	负
		固体废物产生量/10⁴ t	负
		森林覆盖率/%	正
		本年新增水土流失治理面积/10³ hm²	正
	社会生态	全体居民人均可支配收入/元	正
		每万人拥有卫生技术人员数/人	正
		每万人拥有公共交通车辆/标台	正
		教育经费占GDP比重/%	正
		城镇登记失业率/%	负
		城镇恩格尔系数/%	负
旅游	基础规模	旅行社数量/个	正
		星级饭店数量/个	正
		旅游业从业人员数/人	正
		A级旅游景区质量水平/分	正
	产业效应	国内旅游人次/10⁴人	正
		入境旅游人次/10⁴人	正
		国内旅游收入/10⁸元	正
		国际旅游收入/10⁸ USD	正
		旅游总收入占GDP比重/%	正
文化	基础规模	博物馆数量/个	正
		文化站数量/个	正
		艺术表演场馆数量/个	正
		文化从业人员数/人	正
		国家级非物质文化遗产/个	正
		中国历史文化名城名镇名村/个	正
	产业效应	图书总印数/10⁸册	正
		报纸出版总印数/10⁸份	正
		博物馆参观人次/10⁴人	正
		公共图书馆总流通人次/10⁴人	正
		艺术表演团体国内演出观众人次/10³人	正

耦合协调度	协调类型	协调等级	耦合协调度	协调类型	协调等级
[0.0, 0.1)	失调阶段	极度失调	[0.6, 0.7)	协调阶段	初级协调
[0.1, 0.2)		严重失调	[0.7, 0.8)		中级协调
[0.2, 0.3)		中度失调	[0.8, 0.9)		良好协调
[0.3, 0.4)		轻度失调	[0.9, 1.0]		优质协调
[0.4, 0.5)	过渡阶段	濒临失调
[0.5, 0.6)		勉强协调

前因条件	高协调发展		非高协调发展
前因条件	一致性	覆盖度	一致性	覆盖度
经济发展	0.741	0.736	0.576	0.611
非经济发展	0.609	0.573	0.751	0.756
政府支持	0.873	0.821	0.578	0.581
非政府支持	0.555	0.551	0.822	0.874
对外开放	0.726	0.791	0.534	0.622
非对外开放	0.653	0.567	0.820	0.762
产业结构	0.655	0.707	0.607	0.700
非产业结构	0.722	0.632	0.747	0.698
市场需求	0.843	0.820	0.559	0.581
非市场需求	0.569	0.547	0.827	0.849
科技创新	0.749	0.852	0.483	0.588
非科技创新	0.637	0.536	0.878	0.789

前因条件	高协调发展				非高协调发展
前因条件	Y₁	Y₂	Y₃	Y₄	NY₁	NY₂
经济发展	$\cdot$	$\cdot$	$\otimes$	$\bullet$		$\otimes$
政府支持	$\cdot$	$\bullet$	$\bullet$	$\otimes$	$\bigotimes$	$\bigotimes$
对外开放	$\otimes$		$\otimes$	$\cdot$	$\otimes$
产业结构		$\bullet$	$\bullet$	$\bigotimes$
市场需求	$\cdot$	$\cdot$	$\otimes$	$\bullet$	$\otimes$	$\otimes$
科技创新	$\cdot$	$\cdot$	$\otimes$	$\bullet$	$\bigotimes$	$\bigotimes$
一致性	0.955	0.992	0.977	0.952	0.921	0.913
原始覆盖率	0.396	0.497	0.316	0.278	0.673	0.623
唯一覆盖率	0.052	0.206	0.098	0.023	0.086	0.037
总体解的覆盖率	0.724				0.710
总体解的一致性	0.961				0.918

中国“生态-旅游-文化”系统协调发展与影响路径

Coordinated development and influence paths of “ecology-tourism-culture” system in China

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