干旱区地理 ›› 2026, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (1): 106-116.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.789 cstr: 32274.14.ALG2024789
李亚茹1,2(
), 白洋1,2(
), 周春山3, 陈明珠1,2
收稿日期:2024-12-25
修回日期:2025-03-20
出版日期:2026-01-25
发布日期:2026-01-18
通讯作者:
白洋(1982-),男,博士,副教授,主要从事旅游科学与服务管理研究. E-mail: baiyang@xju.edu.cn作者简介:李亚茹(2000-),女,博士研究生,主要从事旅游可持续发展研究. E-mail: liyaru20002023@163.com
基金资助:
LI Yaru1,2(
), BAI Yang1,2(
), ZHOU Chunshan3, CHEN Mingzhu1,2
Received:2024-12-25
Revised:2025-03-20
Published:2026-01-25
Online:2026-01-18
摘要:
快速交通、旅游经济与旅游生态效率的协调互动,对于推动旅游业绿色转型进而实现高质量发展具有重要意义。基于2009—2022年中国省际面板数据构建面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型,探究三者的互动机理、交互关系及异质特征。结果表明:(1)快速交通、旅游经济与旅游生态效率均呈现较为积极的增长态势,由低逐渐向高发展水平支撑下的良性均衡过渡是三者协调发展的主流趋势。(2)快速交通与旅游经济在全国和东部地区存在双向格兰杰因果关系,二者呈现良性的正向交互响应但并不持久。快速交通的自我强化特征突出,旅游经济在以自驱为主的同时主要受到快速交通的较强影响。(3)快速交通与旅游生态效率间仅存在单向格兰杰因果关系,快速交通对旅游生态效率的正向驱动趋向波动递减,旅游生态效率对快速交通的冲击普遍微弱。二者互动失调明显,相互呈现低水平的方差贡献度。(4)旅游经济与旅游生态效率在全国存在双向格兰杰因果关系,具有旅游经济驱动短期强势且有效、旅游生态效率作用持续乏力且无序的互动响应特征。旅游生态效率的内部推力不足,在东部和中部地区旅游经济对其方差贡献率最大。
李亚茹, 白洋, 周春山, 陈明珠. 基于PVAR模型的中国快速交通、旅游经济与旅游生态效率关系研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2026, 49(1): 106-116.
LI Yaru, BAI Yang, ZHOU Chunshan, CHEN Mingzhu. Relationship between rapid transportation, tourism economy and tourism eco-efficiency in China based on PVAR model[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(1): 106-116.
表1
快速交通综合评价指标体系"
| 目标层 | 准则层 | 指标层 | 测算方法 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 快速 交通 | 高速 公路 | 路网密度/km∙km-2 | 各省高速公路里程与国土面积之比 |
| 路网衔接性/% | 各省高速公路里程占公路总里程比例 | ||
| 干线影响力/ 104人∙d-1 | 各省日均公路客运量 | ||
| 通车覆盖率/% | 各省高速公路通车地级市比例 | ||
| 民航 | 通航密度/架次∙d-1 | 各省日均飞机起降架次 | |
| 机场等级/分 | 依据各省境内机场飞行区等级,3C、4C、4D、4E、4F依次计2分、4分、6分、8分、10分,并求和 | ||
| 通航覆盖率/% | 各省民航通航地级市比例 | ||
| 枢纽影响力/ 104人∙d-1 | 各省日均旅客吞吐量 | ||
| 高铁 | 路网密度/km∙km-2 | 各省高铁里程与国土面积之比 | |
| 站点密度/个∙km-2 | 各省高铁站点数量与国土面积之比 | ||
| 干线数量/条 | 各省高铁线路数量 | ||
| 通车覆盖率/% | 各省高铁通车地级市比例 |
表3
不同准则下模型滞后期阶数选择"
| 区域 | 滞后阶数 | AIC | BIC | HQIC | 区域 | 滞后阶数 | AIC | BIC | HQIC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 全国 | 1 | 9.260* | -84.718* | -28.606* | 中部 | 1 | -18.771* | -80.241* | -43.243* |
| 2 | 12.707 | -49.944 | -12.537 | 2 | -13.546 | -54.526 | -29.860 | ||
| 3 | 12.641 | -18.648 | 0.019 | 3 | -4.176 | -24.666 | -12.334 | ||
| 东部 | 1 | -9.415* | -78.653* | -37.402* | 西部 | 1 | -15.640 | -77.110* | -40.112* |
| 2 | -5.910 | -52.069 | -24.568 | 2 | -16.282* | -57.262 | -32.596 | ||
| 3 | -4.144 | -27.223 | -13.473 | 3 | -9.117 | -29.607 | -17.274 |
表4
格兰杰因果检验结果"
| 区域 | 变量 | DlnRTS | DlnTE | DlnTEE | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 卡方 | P值 | 卡方 | P值 | 卡方 | P值 | ||||
| 全国 | DlnRTS | - | - | 3.262* | 0.071 | 4.748** | 0.029 | ||
| DlnTE | 2.758* | 0.097 | - | - | 6.140** | 0.013 | |||
| DlnTEE | 2.499 | 0.114 | 4.888** | 0.027 | - | - | |||
| 东部 | DlnRTS | - | - | 4.314** | 0.038 | 0.092 | 0.762 | ||
| DlnTE | 3.126* | 0.077 | - | - | 1.287 | 0.257 | |||
| DlnTEE | 0.559 | 0.455 | 1.768 | 0.184 | - | - | |||
| 中部 | DlnRTS | - | - | 0.879 | 0.349 | 0.137 | 0.712 | ||
| DlnTE | 1.054 | 0.305 | - | - | 2.976* | 0.085 | |||
| DlnTEE | 2.940* | 0.086 | 1.204 | 0.273 | - | - | |||
| 西部 | DlnRTS | - | - | 2.978* | 0.084 | 4.520** | 0.033 | ||
| DlnTE | 0.003 | 0.954 | - | - | 3.038* | 0.081 | |||
| DlnTEE | 2.057 | 0.152 | 0.441 | 0.507 | - | - | |||
表5
面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型方差分解结果"
| 预测期 | 响应变量 | 冲击变量 | 冲击变量 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DlnRTS | DlnTE | DlnTEE | DlnRTS | DlnTE | DlnTEE | ||||
| 1 | DlnRTS | 全国 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 中部 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 5 | 0.999 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.997 | 0.001 | 0.002 | |||
| 10 | 0.999 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.997 | 0.001 | 0.002 | |||
| 1 | DlnTE | 0.048 | 0.952 | 0.000 | 0.047 | 0.953 | 0.000 | ||
| 5 | 0.075 | 0.925 | 0.000 | 0.110 | 0.888 | 0.002 | |||
| 10 | 0.075 | 0.925 | 0.000 | 0.110 | 0.888 | 0.002 | |||
| 1 | DlnTEE | 0.022 | 0.502 | 0.477 | 0.013 | 0.560 | 0.427 | ||
| 5 | 0.023 | 0.479 | 0.498 | 0.017 | 0.536 | 0.447 | |||
| 10 | 0.023 | 0.479 | 0.498 | 0.017 | 0.536 | 0.447 | |||
| 1 | DlnRTS | 东部 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 西部 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 5 | 0.994 | 0.001 | 0.005 | 0.995 | 0.002 | 0.003 | |||
| 10 | 0.994 | 0.001 | 0.005 | 0.995 | 0.002 | 0.003 | |||
| 1 | DlnTE | 0.071 | 0.929 | 0.000 | 0.037 | 0.963 | 0.000 | ||
| 5 | 0.066 | 0.879 | 0.055 | 0.079 | 0.908 | 0.012 | |||
| 10 | 0.066 | 0.878 | 0.056 | 0.079 | 0.908 | 0.012 | |||
| 1 | DlnTEE | 0.028 | 0.616 | 0.356 | 0.027 | 0.396 | 0.577 | ||
| 5 | 0.029 | 0.618 | 0.353 | 0.047 | 0.363 | 0.590 | |||
| 10 | 0.029 | 0.618 | 0.353 | 0.047 | 0.363 | 0.590 | |||
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