近40 a吐哈地区绿洲时空变化特征及影响因素研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.152

干旱区地理 ›› 2025, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (10): 1695-1706.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.152 cstr: 32274.14.ALG2025152

• 第三次新疆综合科学考察 • 上一篇下一篇

近40 a吐哈地区绿洲时空变化特征及影响因素研究

周紫羽¹^,²(), 党若源¹^,², 杨舒喻³, 王蕾⁴, 徐基良¹^,², 李景文¹^,², 安黎哲¹^,²()

1.北京林业大学生态与自然保护学院，北京 100083
2.林木资源高效生产全国重点实验室，北京 100083
3.北京林业大学经济管理学院，北京 100083
4.北京林业大学马克思主义学院，北京 100083

收稿日期:2025-03-21 修回日期:2025-04-24 出版日期:2025-10-25 发布日期:2025-10-27
通讯作者: 安黎哲（1963-），男，博士，教授，主要从事生态文明建设研究. E-mail: anlizhe@bjfu.edu.cn
作者简介:周紫羽（1997-），女，博士研究生，主要从事干旱区资源环境研究. E-mail: zhouziyu@bjfu.edu.cn
基金资助:
第三次新疆综合科学考察项目(2022xjkk1200)

Spatio-temporal variation and influencing factors of Turpan-Hami region oasis in the past 40 years

ZHOU Ziyu¹^,²(), DANG Ruoyuan¹^,², YANG Shuyu³, WANG Lei⁴, XU Jiliang¹^,², LI Jingwen¹^,², AN Lizhe¹^,²()

1. College of Ecology and Nature Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
2. State Key Laboratory of Efficient Production of Forest Resources, Beijing 100083, China
3. School of Economics and Management Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
4. School of Marxism Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China

Received:2025-03-21 Revised:2025-04-24 Published:2025-10-25 Online:2025-10-27

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

吐鲁番-哈密地区（吐哈地区）作为丝绸之路经济带的关键区域，绿洲变化对维持生态平衡和经济发展具有重要价值。基于1980—2020年吐哈地区的土地利用和社会经济数据，利用ArcGIS重分类进行绿洲提取，通过趋势分析、重心迁移及地理探测器等方法，深入探讨了该区域绿洲的时空变化特征及其影响因素。结果表明：（1）近40 a期间，吐哈地区绿洲扩张的总面积共达1651.47 km²，1980—2000年绿洲扩张速度平稳缓慢扩张222.50 km²，2000—2010年绿洲呈剧烈波动性扩张440.71 km²，2010—2020年绿洲迅速扩张988.26 km²。（2）吐鲁番市绿洲的变化显著区域主要集中在高昌区艾丁湖乡和阿拉沟河流域，哈密市的绿洲扩张区域集中在伊州区城镇周边和巴里坤哈萨克自治县巴里坤山用于农业生产的绿洲。（3）吐哈地区的绿洲重心存在明显空间迁移特征，由吐鲁番市鄯善县逐步向哈密市伊州区转移，且各区域绿洲重心迁移轨迹表现出显著空间异质性。（4）雪水当量与社会经济因素共同影响吐哈地区的绿洲变化，其中雪水当量是主要因素，哈密市的绿洲变化更依赖GDP等社会经济指标，吐鲁番市则主要受雪水当量和水资源总量等自然因素影响。研究结果可为吐哈地区未来的可持续发展战略及水资源重点研究区域提供科学依据和参考。

关键词: 绿洲, 时空变化, 重心迁移, 地理探测器, 吐鲁番-哈密地区

Abstract:

As a strategic hub along the Silk Road Economic Belt, the Turpan-Hami region plays a vital role in maintaining ecological balance and supporting economic development through its evolving oasis systems. This study examines the spatiotemporal characteristics of oasis variations and their driving factors in the Turpan-Hami region, using land use datasets, socioeconomic indicators, and ArcGIS-based oasis delineation techniques. The main findings are as follows: (1) Over four decades, total oasis expansion reached 1651.47 km², with phased development patterns: Moderate growth of 222.50 km² during 1980—2000, expansion of 440.71 km² with marked fluctuations during 2000—2010, followed by accelerated stabilization at 988.26 km² during 2010—2020. (2) Spatially, the most significant transformations occurred in Aiding Lake Township of Gaochang District and the Alagou River Basin in Turpan City, while in Hami City expansion concentrated on the urban fringe of Yizhou District and the Tianshan Mountain-fed agricultural oases in Barkol Kazakh Autonomous County. (3) The oasis centroid shifted notably, gradually migrating from Shanshan County of Turpan to Yizhou District of Hami, with distinct spatial heterogeneity in trajectory patterns across subregions. (4) Snow water equivalent and socioeconomic factors jointly influenced oasis dynamics, with snow water equivalent identified as the dominant driver. Oasis evolution in Hami showed stronger correlations with socioeconomic indicators (e.g., GDP), whereas in Turpan natural determinants, including snow water equivalent and total water availability, played the primary role. These findings provide an empirical basis for developing sustainable strategies and optimizing water resource governance in this ecologically fragile region.

Key words: oasis, spatio-temporal variation, shift of center of gravity, geographic detectors, Turpan-Hami region

周紫羽, 党若源, 杨舒喻, 王蕾, 徐基良, 李景文, 安黎哲. 近40 a吐哈地区绿洲时空变化特征及影响因素研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2025, 48(10): 1695-1706.

ZHOU Ziyu, DANG Ruoyuan, YANG Shuyu, WANG Lei, XU Jiliang, LI Jingwen, AN Lizhe. Spatio-temporal variation and influencing factors of Turpan-Hami region oasis in the past 40 years[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(10): 1695-1706.

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土地覆盖类型	土地利用类型
绿洲	旱地、有林地、灌木林、疏林地、其他林地、高覆盖草地、中覆盖草地、河渠、湖泊、水库坑塘、滩地、居民用地、农村居民点、其他建设用地
荒漠-绿洲过渡带	低覆盖草地（覆盖度在5%~20%的天然草地）、滩涂、永久性冰川雪地
荒漠	戈壁、盐碱地、沼泽地、裸土地、裸岩石质地和其他

绿洲变化	1980—1990年	1990—2000年	2000—2010年	2010—2020年
绿洲年均退缩度（ADR）/%	0.00003	0.00189	0.02743	-0.00157
绿洲年均扩张度（AOR）/%	0.00092	0.00228	0.02995	0.00393
绿洲变化状态	ADR<AOR^*	ADR<AOR^*	ADR<AOR^*	ADR<AOR^*

年份	哈密市			吐鲁番市
年份	巴里坤哈萨克自治县	伊吾县	伊州区	托克逊县	鄯善县	高昌区
1980—1990	0.800	1.052	1.107	0.474	0.001	5.354
1990—2000	6.386	5.167	4.595	0.238	2.439	0.316
2000—2010	15.563	35.984	8.931	14.546	25.987	6.906
2010—2020	4.870	3.611	8.931	1.334	14.850	5.644

近40 a吐哈地区绿洲时空变化特征及影响因素研究

Spatio-temporal variation and influencing factors of Turpan-Hami region oasis in the past 40 years

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