黄河流域水资源利用驱动因素及脱钩效应研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.073

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 实现水资源可持续利用是黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展的重要内容。采用水足迹法测度2000—2020年黄河流域56个地级市的水资源实际消耗情况，通过对数均值迪氏指数法揭示用水变化的主要影响因素，并结合DPSIR框架构建脱钩努力指数模型测度水资源利用脱钩效应。结果表明：（1） 2000—2020年黄河流域水资源利用呈现波动上升趋势，农业生产用水是其主要组成部分，所占比重均在90%以上。（2）经济发展效应与人口规模效应对水资源消耗起正向驱动作用，用水强度效应与产业结构效应起负向驱动作用。（3）水资源利用与经济发展脱钩效果整体较好，主要有弱脱钩和强脱钩2种状态。具体来看，中游和下游地区的脱钩状态优于上游地区；工业生产用水和服务业用水的脱钩状态优于农业生产用水。（4）水资源利用脱钩效应转变过程中，产业结构效应和水资源禀赋效应是实现区域脱钩的重要因素，而用水强度效应和水资源禀赋效应是实现行业脱钩的关键所在。研究结果可为黄河流域水资源与经济绿色协调发展提供理论参考。

关键词: 水足迹, DPSIR框架, 对数均值迪氏指数, 脱钩模型, 黄河流域

Abstract:

Realizing the sustainable utilization of water resources is a critical aspect of ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin, China. This study uses water footprint theory and methodology to measure the actual water consumption of 56 cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2020. It identifies the primary factors influencing water use changes with the logarithmic mean Divisia index method and constructs a decoupling effort index model based on the driver-pressure-state-influence-response framework to evaluate the decoupling effect of water resource utilization. The findings reveal the following: (1) The utilization of water resources in the Yellow River Basin exhibits a fluctuating upward trend from 2000 to 2020, with agricultural production water accounting for over 90% of the total consumption. (2) The economic development effect and population scale effect are the primary positive driving factors, while the water use intensity effect and industrial structure effect serve as the main negative driving factors. (3) The decoupling effect between water resource utilization and economic development in the Yellow River Basin is generally favorable, primarily characterized by weak and strong decoupling. The decoupling performance is better in the midstream and downstream regions compared to the upstream region, and industrial production water and service trade water demonstrate superior decoupling compared to agricultural production water. (4) In the transition process of the decoupling effect of water resource utilization, the industrial structure effect and water resource endowment effect are decisive for achieving regional decoupling, while the water use intensity effect and water resource endowment effect are critical for achieving industrial decoupling. The results offer a theoretical basis for the coordinated development of water resources and the economy in the Yellow River Basin.

Key words: water footprint, the DPSIR framework, logarithmic mean Divisia index, decoupling model, Yellow River Basin

杨燕燕, 王永瑜, 徐绮阳. 黄河流域水资源利用驱动因素及脱钩效应研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2025, 48(1): 20-30.

YANG Yanyan, WANG Yongyu, XU Qiyang. Driving factors and decoupling effect of water resources utilization in the Yellow River Basin[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(1): 20-30.

图/表 10

图1

表1

图2

表2

黄河流域水足迹构成及评价指标"

年份	农业生产用水 /10⁸ m³	工业生产用水 /10⁸ m³	居民生活用水 /10⁸ m³	生态环境用水 /10⁸ m³	进口虚拟水量 /10⁸ m³	出口虚拟水量 /10⁸ m³	内部水足迹/10⁸ m³	外部水足迹/10⁸ m³	总体水足迹/10⁸ m³	人均水足迹/m³·人^-1	水资源匮乏度/%	水资源自用率/%	水资源经济效益 /元·m^-3
2000	1596.88	73.45	47.94	7.13	11.27	26.04	1751.44	11.27	1762.71	1082.66	83.89	99.36	6.52
2001	1626.88	70.61	52.82	7.62	14.03	28.28	1786.22	14.03	1800.25	1092.95	102.76	99.22	7.06
2002	1677.59	73.23	49.49	7.65	12.31	27.85	1835.80	12.31	1848.11	1108.23	115.86	99.33	7.70
2003	1777.34	78.56	50.17	8.86	16.53	31.27	1946.20	16.53	1962.73	1149.23	51.57	99.16	8.31
2004	1960.78	73.70	52.07	9.90	19.03	35.52	2131.96	19.03	2150.99	1287.48	73.64	99.12	8.76
2005	2110.50	83.39	53.48	11.77	21.02	33.50	2292.64	21.02	2313.66	1368.05	67.35	99.09	9.38
2006	2261.85	89.10	54.46	11.89	22.31	35.66	2452.97	22.31	2475.28	1455.09	97.43	99.10	10.07
2007	2170.23	87.72	51.86	12.82	23.92	34.90	2357.53	23.92	2381.45	1381.82	77.13	99.00	12.12
2008	2290.54	89.03	57.10	14.70	23.98	32.49	2483.87	23.98	2507.85	1449.38	103.96	99.04	12.98
2009	2442.74	84.12	59.75	14.80	20.52	19.57	2621.00	20.52	2641.52	1509.32	83.64	99.22	13.77
2010	2500.27	89.40	61.94	15.93	25.93	24.17	2691.72	25.93	2717.65	1521.04	77.18	99.05	15.17
2011	2600.12	93.86	68.31	19.01	28.65	28.71	2810.01	28.65	2838.66	1562.16	71.42	98.99	16.34
2012	2673.55	97.13	70.61	25.19	38.28	28.37	2894.85	38.28	2933.13	1620.28	77.02	98.69	17.61
2013	2669.38	96.50	65.09	21.11	28.84	28.33	2880.41	28.84	2909.25	1615.58	75.33	99.01	19.57
2014	2726.42	89.84	59.71	21.12	28.08	28.96	2926.04	28.08	2954.13	1627.51	94.04	99.05	21.01
2015	2734.03	87.35	68.63	24.79	29.09	29.16	2943.96	29.09	2973.05	1646.36	104.30	99.02	22.44
2016	2697.30	80.76	68.81	27.90	28.24	28.02	2902.79	28.24	2931.02	1603.63	81.13	99.04	24.48
2017	2716.25	87.37	74.90	36.13	94.17	71.56	2986.19	94.17	3080.37	1671.17	81.93	96.94	24.97
2018	2597.31	90.40	79.01	38.81	40.36	31.79	2837.30	40.36	2877.66	1556.42	67.57	98.60	28.50
2019	2641.28	87.01	77.88	47.60	48.27	34.19	2887.97	48.27	2936.24	1569.07	83.02	97.67	29.49
2020	2698.19	70.28	89.64	62.90	40.02	31.69	2952.70	40.02	2992.72	1603.12	53.32	96.54	29.75

表2

图3

表3

图4

表4

表5

表6

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农作物产品	粮食	油料	甘蔗	棉花	水果	茶叶	蔬菜
虚拟水含量	0.88	3.97	0.27	4.40	0.82	13.17	0.11
动物产品	羊肉	牛肉	猪肉	禽肉	禽蛋	水产品	牛奶
虚拟水含量	5.20	12.56	2.21	3.11	3.55	5.00	2.20

年份	水足迹变化率/%	GDP变化率/%	脱钩弹性指数	脱钩程度	年份	水足迹变化率/%	GDP变化率/%	脱钩弹性指数	脱钩程度
2001	1.865	10.811	0.173	弱脱钩	2011	4.174	12.934	0.323	弱脱钩
2002	2.856	12.683	0.225	弱脱钩	2012	2.860	11.413	0.251	弱脱钩
2003	5.875	14.907	0.394	弱脱钩	2013	-0.363	10.285	-0.035	强脱钩
2004	9.469	15.948	0.594	弱脱钩	2014	1.589	8.410	0.189	弱脱钩
2005	7.708	16.061	0.480	弱脱钩	2015	0.488	7.026	0.069	弱脱钩
2006	7.032	15.166	0.464	弱脱钩	2016	-1.493	7.155	-0.209	强脱钩
2007	-3.974	16.135	-0.246	强脱钩	2017	1.112	7.062	0.157	弱脱钩
2008	5.492	12.919	0.425	弱脱钩	2018	-3.884	6.518	-0.596	强脱钩
2009	6.154	11.876	0.518	弱脱钩	2019	1.427	5.680	0.251	弱脱钩
2010	2.513	13.783	0.182	弱脱钩	2020	1.851	7.978	0.232	弱脱钩

行业	规划期	脱钩弹性指数			脱钩态势
行业	规划期	上游	中游	下游	上游	中游	下游
农业	“十五”	1.801	1.237	0.854	扩展性负脱钩	扩展性负脱钩	增长连接
	“十一五”	0.527	0.966	0.141	弱脱钩	增长连接	弱脱钩
	“十二五”	0.477	0.541	-0.042	弱脱钩	弱脱钩	强脱钩
	“十三五”	0.526	-0.635	0.108	弱脱钩	强脱钩	弱脱钩
工业	“十五”	0.038	0.161	0.460	弱脱钩	弱脱钩	弱脱钩
	“十一五”	-0.059	-0.054	0.192	强脱钩	强脱钩	弱脱钩
	“十二五”	-0.510	-0.126	0.203	强脱钩	强脱钩	弱脱钩
	“十三五”	0.747	-1.075	-0.236	弱脱钩	强脱钩	强脱钩
服务业	“十五”	-0.325	0.255	0.084	强脱钩	弱脱钩	弱脱钩
	“十一五”	0.134	0.339	0.107	弱脱钩	弱脱钩	弱脱钩
	“十二五”	-0.285	-0.092	0.257	强脱钩	强脱钩	弱脱钩
	“十三五”	1.893	0.9833	0.803	扩展性负脱钩	增长连接	弱脱钩

地区	规划期	用水强度	产业结构	水资源利用率	水资源禀赋	人口规模	总效应
上游	“十五”	-0.306	1.305	-0.943	-0.715	-0.115	-0.774
	“十一五”	0.142	0.858	-1.521	0.967	-0.044	0.402
	“十二五”	0.407	0.593	-1.154	0.916	-0.032	0.730
	“十三五”	0.903	0.100	-0.948	1.342	0.505	1.901
中游	“十五”	-0.144	1.144	-0.540	-0.843	-0.177	-0.560
	“十一五”	-0.158	1.157	-2.765	1.435	-0.341	-0.672
	“十二五”	0.395	0.605	-1.983	1.427	0.047	0.491
	“十三五”	0.440	0.006	2.050	-0.937	1.082	0.641
下游	“十五”	0.047	0.953	-0.681	0.091	-0.088	0.323
	“十一五”	0.102	0.899	-0.687	0.385	-0.105	0.592
	“十二五”	0.376	0.624	-1.255	1.225	-0.094	0.875
	“十三五”	0.335	0.666	-3.144	3.306	1.908	-0.696
流域整体	“十五”	0.026	0.974	-0.471	-0.199	-0.088	0.241
	“十一五”	0.115	0.885	-1.135	0.689	-0.129	0.425
	“十二五”	0.404	0.596	-1.255	1.072	-0.046	0.771
	“十三五”	0.527	0.463	2.819	-2.839	-0.129	0.841

行业	规划期	用水强度	产业结构	水资源利用率	水资源禀赋	人口规模	总效应
农业	“十五”	-0.061	0.977	-0.105	-0.487	-0.086	0.238
	“十一五”	0.251	1.264	-0.765	0.417	-0.173	0.994
	“十二五”	0.502	0.903	-1.515	1.265	-0.058	1.098
	“十三五”	0.637	0.502	2.283	-2.112	-0.130	1.180
工业	“十五”	0.066	-0.012	-0.002	-0.022	-0.004	0.026
	“十一五”	0.076	-0.006	-0.033	0.019	-0.007	0.050
	“十二五”	0.067	-0.003	-0.052	0.043	-0.002	0.053
	“十三五”	0.053	0.002	0.069	-0.063	-0.004	0.057
服务业	“十五”	0.036	0.003	-0.004	-0.013	-0.003	0.020
	“十一五”	0.039	-0.001	-0.019	0.011	-0.004	0.027
	“十二五”	0.034	0.000	-0.036	0.029	-0.002	0.026
	“十三五”	0.008	-0.005	0.065	-0.060	-0.004	0.004