区域社会-生态系统恢复力协调发展时空演变研究——以陕西省为例

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000－6060.2023.158

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在人口增长、资源开发、城镇化等多因素驱动下，恢复力为区域社会-生态系统可持续发展提供了新的研究视角。以陕西省为研究区，基于社会、经济、生态3个子系统，综合考虑系统的脆弱性与应对能力构建指标体系，通过集对分析法对陕西省107个县级行政单元的社会-生态系统恢复力进行测度，根据恢复力测度结果，运用耦合协调度模型分析二元（社会-经济、社会-生态、经济-生态）及三元（社会-经济-生态）子系统的协调发展程度，从区域层面揭示其2000—2020年的时空演变特征，然后引入双变量空间自相关模型进一步探究二元与三元子系统协调发展度变化的数量及空间关联特征。结果表明：（1）研究期间陕西省社会、经济恢复力增长显著，生态恢复力呈微弱的下降趋势，社会-生态系统恢复力由0.303上升至0.779。（2）子系统协调发展度均呈上升趋势，社会-经济子系统南高北低的协调发展差异减弱，社会-生态、经济-生态子系统形成中部低南北高的协调发展格局，社会-经济-生态子系统协调发展度整体维持南高北低的空间分布特征。（3）二元子系统协调发展变化在数量及空间上与三元子系统协调发展变化有较大的正向关联性，以高-高、低-低类型评价单元在省域北部、中部的集中分布为主。

关键词: 社会-生态系统恢复力, 协调发展, 双变量相关性, 陕西省

Abstract:

Driven by multiple factors such as population growth, resource development, and urbanization, resilience provides a new research perspective for the sustainable development of regional social-ecological systems. To clarify the trend of the coordinated development of the social-ecological system in Shaanxi Province, northwest China from the perspective of resilience and provide theoretical support for the sustainable development of the regional social-ecological system based on the three subsystems of society, economy, and ecology, comprehensively considering the vulnerability and coping capacity of the system, a resilience evaluation index system was constructed. The social-ecological system resilience of 107 county-level administrative units in Shaanxi Province was measured using set-pair analysis. According to the results of the resilience measurement, the coupling coordination degree model was used to analyze the coordinated development degree of binary (social-economic, social-ecological, and economic-ecological) and ternary (social-economic-ecological) subsystems. The spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the coordinated development degree of the subsystems from 2000 to 2020 were revealed at the regional level. The bivariate spatial autocorrelation model was introduced to further explore the quantitative and spatial correlation characteristics of the coordinated development degree changes in the binary and ternary subsystems. The results showed the following: (1) During the study period, the social and economic resilience of Shaanxi Province increased significantly, ecological resilience showed a weak downward trend, and social-ecological system resilience increased from 0.303 to 0.779. (2) The coordinated development degree of the subsystems showed an upward trend; the coordinated development degree of the social-economic subsystem increased from 0.422 to 0.823, and the difference between the high in the south and low in the north weakened. The coordinated development degree of social-ecological and economical-ecological subsystems increased from 0.471 and 0.394 to 0.714 and 0.727, respectively. These two types of binary subsystems formed a coordinated development pattern of low in the middle and high in the north and south, respectively. The coordinated development degree of social-economic-ecological subsystem increased from 0.424 to 0.755 and generally maintained the spatial distribution characteristics of high in the south and low in the north. (3) The changes in the coordinated development of the social-economic, social-ecological, and economic-ecological subsystems were positively correlated with the change in the coordinated development of the social-economic-ecological subsystem in quantity and space. There were obvious spatial agglomeration characteristics in the coordinated development degree changes of the three types of binary and ternary subsystems. The positive correlation of high-high and low-low type evaluation units was mainly distributed in the northern and middle parts of Shaanxi Province, whereas the correlation was not significant in the southern part; the evaluation units with agglomeration characteristics were scattered.

Key words: social-ecological system resilience, coordinated development, bivariate correlation, Shaanxi Province

黄娇, 陈海, 王佳宇, 白晓娟. 区域社会-生态系统恢复力协调发展时空演变研究——以陕西省为例[J]. 干旱区地理, 2024, 47(2): 343-355.

HUANG Jiao, CHEN Hai, WANG Jiayu, BAI Xiaojuan. Spatiotemporal evolution of the coordinated development of regional social-ecological system resilience: A case study of Shaanxi Province[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(2): 343-355.

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子系统层	准则层	指标层	指标含义及性质	权重
社会子系统	脆弱性	人口密度/人·km^-2	衡量系统压力（-）	0.0023
		粮食产量/t	衡量粮食供应能力（+）	0.0486
		社会消费品零售总额/10⁴元	衡量系统消费水平（+）	0.1433
	应对能力	地方财政支出/10⁴元	衡量社会财政支持力度（+）	0.0284
		万人拥有医疗卫生机构床位数/张	衡量医疗卫生服务能力（+）	0.0581
		中小学在校生人数/人	衡量系统学习能力（+）	0.0416
经济子系统	脆弱性	农林牧渔业总产值/10⁴元	衡量系统生产能力（+）	0.0359
		规模以上工业总产值/10⁴元	衡量工业发展水平与规模（+）	0.1216
		金融机构贷款余额/10⁴元	衡量系统发展的资金需求（-）	0.0042
		产业结构多样化指数	衡量产业发展的平衡程度（+）	0.0110
	应对能力	地方财政收入/10⁴元	衡量地方政府财力（+）	0.0900
		GDP/10⁸元	衡量系统经济总量（+）	0.0878
		人均可支配收入/元	衡量居民收入水平（+）	0.0372
		全社会固定资产投资额/10⁴元	衡量资本投资额度（+）	0.0750
生态子系统	脆弱性	土地利用程度	衡量土地开发利用程度（-）	0.0076
		化肥施用强度/t·hm^-2	衡量系统生态威胁（-）	0.0050
		农用塑料薄膜使用强度/kg·hm^-2	衡量系统环境压力（-）	0.0038
	应对能力	造林面积比例/%	衡量地区生态建设水平（+）	0.0746
		生物丰度	衡量系统生物丰贫程度（+）	0.0123
		人均林草地面积/hm²	衡量系统自然条件（+）	0.1118

协调发展度区间	协调阶段	协调发展程度
0.0~0.1	D1：失调衰退阶段（0.0~0.4）	极度失调（D11）
0.1~0.2		严重失调（D12）
0.2~0.3		中度失调（D13）
0.3~0.4		轻度失调（D14）
0.4~0.5	D2：过渡调和阶段（0.4~0.6）	濒临失调（D21）
0.5~0.6	D2：过渡调和阶段（0.4~0.6）	勉强协调（D22）
0.6~0.7	D3：协调发展阶段（0.6~1.0）	初级协调（D31）
0.7~0.8		中级协调（D32）
0.8~0.9		良好协调（D33）
0.9~1.0		优质协调（D34）

耦合子系统		2000年				2020年
耦合子系统		陕西省	陕南	关中	陕北	陕西省	陕南	关中	陕北
社会-经济	D1	45.79	50.00	25.93	84.00	-	-	-	-
	D2	43.93	46.43	55.56	16.00	4.67	7.14	3.70	4.00
	D3	10.28	3.57	18.52	-	95.33	92.86	96.30	96.00
社会-生态	D1	41.12	28.57	35.19	68.00	5.61	-	11.11	-
	D2	31.78	46.43	25.93	28.00	9.35	14.29	9.26	4.00
	D3	27.10	25.00	38.89	4.00	85.05	85.71	79.63	96.00
经济-生态	D1	56.07	53.57	50.00	72.00	4.67	-	9.26	-
	D2	39.25	42.86	42.59	28.00	4.67	-	9.26	-
	D3	4.67	3.57	7.41	-	90.65	100.00	81.48	100.00
社会-经济-生态	D1	48.60	50.00	33.33	80.00	-	-	-	-
	D2	36.45	39.29	44.44	16.00	7.48	7.14	11.11	-
	D3	14.95	10.71	22.22	4.00	92.52	92.86	88.89	100.00

二元耦合子系统	社会-经济-生态
二元耦合子系统	Moran’s I	P	Z
社会-经济	0.459	0.001	8.1835
社会-生态	0.442	0.001	7.6834
经济-生态	0.478	0.001	8.2677