塔里木河流域60 a来天然径流变化趋势分析

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用塔里木河流域近60 a的地表径流、气温和降水量资料，通过趋势分析、突变检验、年代际分析等方法分析了塔里木河流域地表径流变化的时空差异性，探讨了塔里木河流域天然径流变化对气温、降水量变化的响应。研究表明：近60 a来塔里木河流域三源流径流整体存在增加的趋势，但干流径流存在减少的趋势；塔里木河流域三源流增加强度在1993年前后从强到弱依次为阿克苏河、叶尔羌河、和田河，进入2000年后从强到弱依次为和田河、叶尔羌河、阿克苏河；塔里木河流域三源流径流强度增加主要受降水增加和由气温增加引起的融雪径流增加的双重影响。

关键词: 塔里木河, 天然径流, 变化趋势

Abstract: Based on runoff time series during the last 60 years,this paper analyzed the spatial and temporal variation of natural runoffs for the Tarim River Basin,Xinjiang,China with the trend analysis,mutation test and interdecadal analysis methods.The response of runoffs to temperature and precipitation changes was also investigated.The results showed that the total runoffs of the three source streams of the Tarim River(i.e.Aksu,Yarkant and Hotan Rivers) increased significantly during the past 60 years,but runoffs of the main stream decreased significantly.The change point of runoffs was around 1993.Comparing runoffs before and after 1993,Aksu River showed a largest increase in runoffs,followed by Yarkant River and Hotan River.But after 2000,the Hotan River showed the largest increase,followed by the Yarkant River and Aksu River, which indicated that the wet degree of climate become weak gradually from south to north of the Tarim River Basin.The runoff increases of the three source streams of the Tarim River are caused by increment in precipitation,and the enlargement of snowmelt runoff owing to the rise of temperature.The main reason for the runoff volume decrease of the mainstream of the Tarim River is the enlargement of water consumption caused by human activities at the source region of the Tarim River.

Key words: Tarim River, natural runoff, changing trend

中图分类号:

P333.1

周海鹰, 沈明希, 陈杰, 夏军, 洪思. 塔里木河流域60 a来天然径流变化趋势分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2018, 41(2): 221-229.

ZHOU Hai-ying, SHEN Ming-xi, CHEN Jie, XIA Jun, HONG Si. Trends of natural runoffs in the Tarim River Basin during the last 60 years[J]. 干旱区地理, 2018, 41(2): 221-229.

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