甘肃省产业结构的时空分异及其动力机制研究

干旱区地理 ›› 2016, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (3): 638-646.

甘肃省产业结构的时空分异及其动力机制研究

庄良¹, 王新敏², 马卫³, 尚正永⁴

1 华东师范大学中国现代城市研究中心, 上海 200241;
2 西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院, 甘肃兰州 730070;
3 陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院, 陕西西安 710119;
4 淮阴师范学院资源与环境科学学院, 江苏淮安 223300

收稿日期:2015-12-21 修回日期:2016-03-02 出版日期:2016-05-25
作者简介:庄良(1989-),男,江苏盐城人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为区域发展与城乡规划.Email:zhuangliangboy@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(41371171)

Spatial difference of industrial structure and mechanisms of Gansu Province

ZHUANG Liang¹, WANG Xin-min², MA Wei³, SHANG Zheng-yong⁴

1 The Center for Modern Chinese City Studies, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China;
2 School of Geography and Environment, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, Gansu, China;
3 College of Tourismand Environment, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an 710119, Shaanxi, China;
4 School of Urban and Environment Science, Huaiyin Normal University, Huai'an 223300, Jiangsu, China

Received:2015-12-21 Revised:2016-03-02 Online:2016-05-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 运用传统统计分析与ESDA、OLS、GWR等模型分析方法,基于2000-2013年甘肃省县域经济数据对其产业结构差异及变动进行了时空比较分析。结果表明:时间分异方面,甘肃省县域产业结构的绝对和相对差异均呈现缓慢下降趋势;空间分异全局方面,甘肃省县域产业结构水平呈现西高东低、北高南低的趋势,各县产业结构差异性及集聚性显著增强;空间分异局部方面,热点区域分布由2000年的酒泉、兰州向甘肃的西北及东北部扩展,到2013年形成酒嘉地区、兰州和庆阳三个核心的热点地区,基本呈现出自西北向东南的"热点-次热点-冷点-次冷点"带状分布格局。此外,通过OLS、GWR两种模型对比分析,发现后者更能深刻揭示产业结构与各空间因子之间的相互关系,并进一步采用GWR模型对甘肃省产业结构演变的影响因素予以分析。最后,通过相关结论的分析与思考,以期为甘肃省产业结构优化升级提供重要的决策依据。

关键词: ESDA, GWR, 产业结构, 空间格局, 甘肃省

Abstract: By taking the counties of Gansu Province, northwest China as a case, this paper mainly used the ESDA model, OLS model and GWR model to analyze the temporal-spatial differences and changes of the industrial structure for 87 counties from 2000 to 2013. The results showed as follows:(1) From the temporal respective, both the absolute and relative difference of industrial structure of counties presented "slow down" trend in Gansu Province, and the decline rate of relative difference was more rapid than that of the absolute difference.(2) From the spatial respective, with the ArcGIS trend analysis tool, it was found that the industrial development had a tendency of higher in the west and north, lower in the east and south. Besides, the calculate results of Moran's I showed that the spatial clustering of the industrial structure of Gansu Province is increasing.(3) Since 2000, the hot areas mainly distributed intensively in Jiuquan and Lanzhou cities, then extended to the northwest and northeast of Gansu Province. Lately, three hot areas of Jiuquan-Jiayuguan, Lanzhou and Qingyang formed in 2013. The distribution of cold and hot spots showed an obvious zonal distribution pattern of "hot spots, sub-hot spots, cold spots, sub-cold spots" from northwest to southeast.(4) Finally, this paper analyzed the dynamic mechanism of industrial structure evolution with the method of GWR. Among the influencing factors, only government intervention effect generally had a negative influence on the industrial structure evolution, while the other impact factors had robust and positive impacts, such as economy level, investment level, consumption level, technology level, urbanization level. Raising the overall level of government intervention should be an effective way to improve industrial structure. This paper could be helpful for reference to optimize the industrial structure and promote the fair and coordinated development among counties of Gansu Province.

Key words: ESDA, GWR, spatial pattern, industrial structure, Gansu Province

中图分类号:

F127

庄良, 王新敏, 马卫, 尚正永. 甘肃省产业结构的时空分异及其动力机制研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2016, 39(3): 638-646.

ZHUANG Liang, WANG Xin-min, MA Wei, SHANG Zheng-yong. Spatial difference of industrial structure and mechanisms of Gansu Province[J]. , 2016, 39(3): 638-646.

参考文献

[1] 高志刚. 产业结构与新疆区域经济发展[J]. 干旱区地理,2004, 27(4):592-596.[GAO Zhigang. Industrial structure and the regional economic development in Xinjiang[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2004,27(4):592-596.]

[2] 彭建,王仰麟,叶敏婷,等. 区域产业结构变化及其生态环境效应——以云南省丽江市为例[J]. 地理学报,2005,60(5):798-806.[PENG Jian,WANG Yanglin,YE Minting,et al. Research on the change of regional industrial structure and its eco-environmental effect:a case study in Lijiang City,Yunnan Province[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2005,60(5):798-806.]

[3] 赵儒煜. 关于产业结构理论问题的思考[J]. 税务与经济,2003, 6(15):1-11.[ZHAO Ruyu. A reflection on the theory of the industrial structure[J]. Taxation and Economy,2003,6(15):1-11.]

[4] 石天戈,张小雷,杜宏茹,等. 中亚制造业发展的空间差异与结构特征[J]. 干旱区地理,2013,36(4):749-756.[SHI Tiange, ZHANG Xiaolei,DU Hongru,et al. Manufacturing spatial distribution and structural characteristics in Central Asia[J]. Arid Land Geography,2013,36(4):749-756.]

[5] 彭宜钟. 产业结构理论综述[J]. 北方经济,2010(24):33-35.[PENG Yizhong. Overview of industrial structure theory[J]. Northern Economy,2010,(24):33-35.]

[6] 刘伟,李绍荣. 产业结构与经济增长[J]. 中国工业经济,2002(5):14-21.[LIU Wei,LI Shaorong. Industrial structure and economic growth[J]. China Industrial Economy,2002,(5):14-21.]

[7] 高远东,陈迅. 中国省域产业结构的空间计量经济研究[J]. 系统工程理论与实践,2010,30(6):993-1001.[GAO Yuandong, CHEN Xun. Spatial econometric analysis of industrial structure of Chinese provinces[J]. Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice, 2010,30(6):993-1001.]

[8] 刘明宇,芮明杰. 价值网络重构、分工演进与产业结构优化[J]. 中国工业经济,2012,(5):148-160.[LIU Mingyu,RUI Mingjie. Reconstruction of value network,the evolution of division and the industrial structure optimization[J]. China Industrial Economics, 2012,(5):148-160.]

[9] 邹一南,石腾超. 产业结构升级的就业效应分析[J]. 上海经济研究,2012,(12):3-13.[ZOU Yinan,SHI Tengchao. Analysis of the employment effect of industrial structure upgrading[J]. Shanghai Journal of Economics,2012,(12):3-13.]

[10] 冯芳芳,蒲勇健. 我国区域产业结构优化及其影响因素分析——基于分位数回归方法[J]. 技术经济,2012,(2):36-42.[FENG Fangfang,PU Yongjian. Analysis on optimization of regional industrial structure and its influencing factors:based on quantile regression approach[J]. Technology Economics,2012(2):36-42.]

[11] 闫海洲. 长三角地区产业结构高级化及影响因素[J]. 财经科学,2010,(1):50-58.[YAN Haizhou. Advancement of industrial structure in Yangze Delta Area and influencing factors[J]. Finance & Economics,2010(1):50-58.]

[12] 何一鸣,蒲英霞,王结臣,等. 基于马尔可夫链的四川省产业结构时空演变[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(4):68-75.[HE Yiming,PU Yingxia,WANG Jiechen,et al. Spatial-temporal dynamics of industrial structure with Markov Chains approach in Sichuan Province[J]. China Population,Resources and Environment,2011,21(4):68-75.]

[13] 李建豹,白永平,罗君,等. 甘肃省县域经济差异变动的空间分析[J]. 经济地理,2011,31(3):390-395.[LI Jianbao,BAI Yongping,LUO Jun,et al. Spatial analysis of economic disparities of county level in Gansu Province[J]. Economic Geography, 2011,31(3):390-395.]

[14] 陈博文,白永平,吴常艳. 基于"时空接近"的区域经济差异、格局和潜力研究——以呼包鄂榆经济区为例[J]. 经济地理, 2013,33(1):27-34.[CHEN Bowen,BAI Yongping,WU Changyan. Research on spatial patterns and potentiality of regional economy in the economic region of Hohhot-Baotou-Erdos-Yulin based on spatial-temporal proximity[J]. Economic Geography, 2013,33(1):27-34.]

[15] 关伟,朱海飞. 基于ESDA的辽宁省县际经济差异时空分析[J]. 地理研究,2011,30(11):2008-2016.[GUAN Wei,ZHU Haifei. Spatio-temporal analysis of inter-county economic differences in Liaonin Province based on ESDA[J]. Geographical Research, 2011,30(11):2008-2016.]

[16] 石奇,尹敬东,吕磷. 消费升级对中国产业结构的影响[J]. 产业经济研究,2009,(6):7-12.[SHI Qi,YIN Jingdong,LV Lin. Impact of consumption upgrade on China's industrial structure[J]. Industrial Economics Research,2009,(6):7-12.]