华北雨季监测及对应环流变化特征

干旱区地理 ›› 2016, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (3): 539-547.

华北雨季监测及对应环流变化特征

闵锦忠¹, 赵悦晨¹, 郝立生^2,3

1 南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 江苏南京 210044;
2 天津市气象局, 天津 300074;
3 中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所/中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室, 甘肃兰州 730020

收稿日期:2016-01-08 修回日期:2016-03-01 出版日期:2016-05-25
作者简介:闵锦忠,博士,教授,博士生导师,研究方向为中小尺度数值模拟与资料同化和气候预测.Email:minjz@nuist.edu.cn
基金资助:
公益性行业(气象)科研专项重大专项(GYHY201506001-1);国家气候中心短期气候预测创新团队基金

Monitoring of rainy season and characteristics of corresponding circulation changes in North China

MIN Jin-zhong¹, ZHAO Yue-chen¹, HAO Li-sheng^2,3

1 Key Laboratory of Meterological Disaster, Ministry of Education(ELME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;
2 Tianjin Municipal Meteorological Bureau, Tianjin 300074, China;
3 Institute of Arid Meteorology, CMA/Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Reducing Disaster, CMA, Lanzhou 730020, China

Received:2016-01-08 Revised:2016-03-01 Online:2016-05-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用华北37站日降水量和NCEP/NCAR再分析大气环流等资料,定义一种新的华北雨季监测指数,即用850 hPa比湿特征线监测华北雨季,并将500 hPa高度场、海平面气压场、850 hPa风场变化特征作为参考指标。结果表明:1961-2014年,华北雨季开始日期平均在7月4日,结束日期平均在9月2日,平均雨季长度60 d,雨季累计降水量多年平均为278 mm,平均日降水强度4.5 mm·d^-1。1961-2014年华北雨季强度表现为减弱趋势,近年雨季强度有增强的趋势,但还没有达到20世纪60~70年代的强度,在连续三年偏强后2013、2014年出现雨季偏弱,华北是否"雨季转型"还存在不确定性。这里采用连续变量定义的华北雨季监测指标较国家气候中心目前采用的日降水监测方法效果好,可以在业务中参考应用。

关键词: 华北, 雨季, 监测, 指数

Abstract: To monitor the rainy season in North China in a better way, new monitoring indexes are defined in this paper based on daily precipitation data from 37 stations of North China and day-by-day general atmospheric circulation data reanalyzed by NCEP/NCAR. By using the indexes, the characteristic line of 10 g·kg^-1 specific humidity at 850 hPa is used for monitoring the rainy season in North China, with the changing characteristics at 500 hPa height field, sea-level pressure field and 850hPa wind field as the reference indexes. Results indicate that the 10 g·kg^-1 specific humidity line at 850hPa crossed over Line 35°N and reached North China from the end of June to early July but returned southward to Line 35°N in late August, which well corresponded to the precipitation concentration period during summer in North China. The rainy season in North China was monitored and analyzed based on the rainy season monitoring indexes including the starting date of rainy season, the ending date of rainy season, the period of the rainy season, the total precipitation in the rainy season and the average precipitation intensity defined in this paper. It shows that the average starting date of the rainy season in North China was around July 4th and the average ending date was around September 2nd during 1961-2014, with an average period of 60 days. The average annual accumulative precipitation during the rainy season was 278 mm and the average daily precipitation intensity was 4.5 mm·d^-1. The precipitation intensity in the rainy season in North China during 1961-2014 showed a reduction trend. Specifically, it was mainly strong and relatively strong in the rainy season in 1960s, relatively strong and normal in 1970s, normal and relatively weak in 1980s, relatively weak in 1990s, relatively weak and normal during 2000-2009, relatively strong in 2010 and 2012, normal in 2011 and relatively weak during 2013-2014. In recent years, the precipitation intensity in the rainy season showed an increase trend but was not as great as that during the 1960s-1970s;after a successive 3-year relatively strong intensity, the intensity was significantly weakened during 2013-2014;so it is uncertain whether North China was subject to a "shift of rainy season". The results of practical application indicate that the rainy season monitoring indexes defined in the paper are significantly improved when compared with the monitoring method based on daily precipitation. The monitored changes of rainy season in many years conform to the actual conditions. Therefore, it is a good technical method to conduct monitoring with these indexes, and can be referred to and applied in the monitoring work.

Key words: North China, Rainy season, Monitoring, Index

中图分类号:

P434

闵锦忠, 赵悦晨, 郝立生. 华北雨季监测及对应环流变化特征[J]. 干旱区地理, 2016, 39(3): 539-547.

MIN Jin-zhong, ZHAO Yue-chen, HAO Li-sheng. Monitoring of rainy season and characteristics of corresponding circulation changes in North China[J]. , 2016, 39(3): 539-547.

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