收藏设为首页 广告服务联系我们在线留言

干旱区地理 ›› 2014, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (2): 397-405.

• 区域发展 • 上一篇    

甘肃省粮食生产的多尺度及关联分析

卢李朋1,张杰1,张胜武1,江进德2   

  1. (1    西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院, 甘肃    兰州    730070;    2    阜阳师范学院社会发展学院, 阜阳    236500)
  • 收稿日期:2013-07-15 修回日期:2013-10-08 出版日期:2014-03-25
  • 通讯作者: 张杰(1959-),男,甘肃兰州人,副教授. Email:zhjnwnu@126.com
  • 作者简介:卢李朋(1987-),男,硕士生,安徽界首人,从事区域发展和行政区划研究. Email:lulp1987@126.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目(41061017)

Multi-scale analysis and grey analysis of grain production in Gansu Province

LU  Li-peng1,ZHANG  Jie1,ZHANG  Sheng-wu1,JIANG  Jin-de2   

  1. (1   College of Geographic and Environmental Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, Gansu, China;2   College of Society Development, Fuyang Normal University, Fuyang  236500, Anhui, China)
  • Received:2013-07-15 Revised:2013-10-08 Online:2014-03-25

摘要: 采用甘肃省1949-2011年时间尺度的粮食产量历史数据,在对粮食产量时空尺度分析的基础上,基于33 a时间序列的粮食产量及其相关的11个变量的基础数据作为样本,建立粮食生产灰色系统模型对驱动机制进行分析,期望为农业部门粮食生产决策提供科学借鉴。分析结果表明:(1)1949-2011年,甘肃省粮食生产在波动中增长;粮食总产量、人均粮食产量及单产的曲线的动态变化基本吻合;甘肃省粮食产量变化主要存在23 a、15 a左右的年代际振荡周期和准9 a的年际波动周期,其中23 a、15 a左右的振荡周期较强烈;(2)单产、农村从业人口和有效灌溉面积是甘肃省粮食生产的主要驱动力。

关键词: 粮食, 甘肃省, 小波分析, 灰度关联分析

Abstract: Gansu Province (92°13′~108°46′E,32°31′~42°57′N) which located in the northwest of China is one of the great bases of commercial foodstuff. The paper explores the impacts that affect the regional grain production,by choosing socio-economic statistics from 1949 to 2011,based on the time analysis and space analysis to the grain dynamic changes in 63 years. After that,Gray System model was established depending on the data of 11 variables about grain production of Gansu Province in the past 63 years since Reform and Opening Up of China. The research show as follows:(1) from 1949 to 2011,the characteristics of the dynamic change about the grain production in Gansu Province mainly performed in third aspects. First and foremost,it displayed a significantly fluctuated growth in grain production but the fluctuations in grain production in recent years has slowed down; Besides,the curve line of total grain production,the changing trends of per capita food production and grain yield per unit area are basically alike. Last but not means the least,there are such as 23 a,15 a and 9 a typical oscillation in grain production variation in Gansu Province on a time scale of 63 years since the founding of our motherland,particularly,the 23 a and 15 a oscillation dominated. Concretely speaking,the province's total grain output increased from 206 million tons in 1949 to 1 014.6 million tons in 2011. In addition,the average annual growth rate of 2.6% per capita food increased from 212.71 kg in 1949 to 2 777.52kg in 2011 and the average annual growth rate of 1.01%,what is more,the average annual growth rate of 2.47% grain yields from 612.43 in 1949 to 2 777.52 kilogram per hectare in 2011. (2) Per capita food production and space distribution of the average annual growth rate differences are significant in 14 areas of Gansu Province. (3) The three main drivers of food production are per area corps production,farmer resource and effective irrigation area. In detailed,the correlation coefficients of food productions to per area corps production,farmer resource,effective irrigation area are as high as 0.992,0.998 and 0.986.

Key words: grain, Gansu Province, wavelet analysis, grey analysis

中图分类号: 

  • F326. 11