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干旱区地理 ›› 2013, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (4): 700-708.

• 气候与水文 • 上一篇    下一篇

CFSR、ERA-Interim和MERRA降水资料在中亚地区的适用性

胡增运1,倪勇勇1,2,邵华1,殷刚1,2,3,艳燕1,2,贾超君1   

  1. 1   中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室, 新疆    乌鲁木齐    830011;2    中国科学院大学, 北京    100049;    3    新疆大学信息科学与工程学院, 新疆    乌鲁木齐    830046
  • 收稿日期:2012-12-03 修回日期:2013-01-30 出版日期:2013-07-25
  • 通讯作者: 邵华,女,博士,副研究员. Email:shaohua@ms.xjb.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:胡增运(1984-),男,在职博士,助理研究员,主要研究方向:气候变化,生态建模,数值模拟. Email:huzengyun@ms.xjb.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:

    科技部国际合作项目(2010DFA92720-10);中国科学院“西部之光”博士项目(XBBS201006)

Applicability study of CFSR,ERA-Interim and MERRA precipitation estimates in Central Asia

HU  Zeng-yun1,NI  Yong-yong1,2,SHAO  Hua1,YIN  Gang1,2,3,YAN  Yan1,2,JIA Chao-jun1   

  1. 1    State  Key  Laboratory  of  Desert  and  Oasis  Ecology, Xinjiang  Institute  of  Ecology  and  Geography, Chinese  Academy  of  Sciences, Urumqi  830011, Xinjiang, China;   2   University  of  Chinese  Academy  of  Sciences, Beijing   100039, China;3   School  of  Information  Science  and  Engineering, Xinjiang  University, Urumqi  830046, Xinjiang, China
  • Received:2012-12-03 Revised:2013-01-30 Online:2013-07-25

摘要: 利用中亚1979-2011年间162个观测站点月降水数据(OBS),以平均偏差(MBE)、相关系数(R)、平均绝对误差(MAE)和均方根误差(RMSE)对CFSR、ERA-Interim和MERRA气象再分析降水数据在中亚地区的适用性进行评估。结果表明:(1)3套数据的模拟效果存在明显差异。其中MERRA的模拟精度最高(R=0.71),ERA-Interim次之(R=0.53),CFSR最低(R=0.50);体现出3套数据不同的同化方案和数据源导致模拟效果的不同;(2)降水的年内变化上,3套再分析数据之间具有较好的一致性,但对[OBS]均表现出高估,并且对强降水月份(3,4月)高估幅度最大;(3)3套数据对海拔500~1 000 m地区的降水模拟精度最好,超过1 000 m后,随海拔升高模拟精度下降。以上规律可为3套数据的订正及其在中亚地区气候变化研究中的应用提供科学依据。

关键词: 中亚, 降水, 再分析数据, 站点资料, 适用性研究

Abstract: In this paper,the applicability of three reanalysis precipitation datasets,CFSR,ERA-Interim and MERRA,in Central Asia was evaluated with the observed monthly precipitation data(OBS) during 1979-2011 from 162 meteorological stations by the correlation analysis,t test and the method of least squares.  Accuracies of the reanalysis datasets were quantified with mean bias error(MBE),correlation coefficient(R),mean absolute error(MAE) and root mean square error(RMSE). In addition,the variations of the three reanalysis precipitation accuracies at different months and altitudes are analyzed. The results suggest as follows:(1) All the three reanalysis datasets tend to overestimate the OBS precipitation. However,there exist obvious differences of the simulation results between CFSR,ERA-Interim and MERRA. For each reanalysis data,MERRA precipitation agrees most closely with OBSR=0.53,MBE=5.12 mm) than CFSR and ERA-Interim,the following is ERA-Interim with (R=0.53,MBE=17.75 mm) and the worst is CFSR with (R=0.50,AE=27.04 mm) although all of them significantly correlated with the OBS precipitations (p<0.05). This may be affected by the scarcity and uneven distribution of the meteorological stations,the complex topography in Central Asia. Furthermore,different assimilation techniques,data sources and models used in different reanalysis datasets can also cause the different simulation results. (2) CFSR,ERA-Interim and MERRA have the consistency trend in monthly precipitation change. Comparing with the OBS precipitation,the biggest magnitude overestimates appear in March and April for the three reanalysis datasets. While the smallest magnitude overestimates appear in August,September and October. The precipitation differences between the three reanalysis datasets indicate that CFSR precipitation values are bigger than ERA-Interim from January to May and from October to December with the average difference 16.33 mm,while smaller than ERA-Interim in the other months. The precipitation differences between CFSR and MERRA are positive for all the months during the year,and the corresponding average difference is higher than 21.9 mm. All the monthly precipitations for ERA-Interim are bigger than MERRA,and the biggest differences reach to 24 mm in May,June and July.  (3) For the three reanalysis datasets,the best precipitation accuracy appears in 500-1 000 m ranges. When the altitude is over 1 000 m,the precipitation accuracy is decreasing following the altitude increasing which shows that the simulation results of the three reanalysis are poor at high altitudes. From the above analysis,it was found that although there exists some uncertainties for the three reanalysis simulation results at different months and areas in Central Asia,the sufficient evidences show that the result from MERRA matching the OBS precipitation data is better than that from CFSR and ERA-Interim. Therefore,MERRA precipitation data can be used to study the precipitation spatial and temporal patterns in Central Asia. The results of the applicability study between the three reanalysis datasets and [OBS] can provide theory and technology for the rectifying of the three reanalysis datasets.

Key words: Central Asia, precipitation, reanalysis data, meteorological station information, applicability study

中图分类号: 

  • P426.61