CMA-MESO模式暖季小时及日降水预报性能评估——以伊犁河谷为例

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.350

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

定量降水预报性能评估可以为降水预报释用和改进提供科学依据。利用2022—2023年5—9月（暖季）小时站点降水观测和CMA-MESO模式降水预报数据，采用晴雨准确率、成功指数（Threat score，TS）、空报率和漏报率等评估指标，对伊犁河谷降水预报性能进行深入研究。结果表明：（1） CMA-MESO模式能合理刻画出伊犁河谷暖季1 h和24 h降水特征。随降水强等级的增大，降水预报和观测频率均呈下降趋势。（2）模式预报不同强度降水的TS评分与降水预报的累积概率偏差密切相关。6.1~12.0 mm的24 h降水预报TS评分最低，其累积概率预报偏差最高，均值超过2.0%；1 h预报TS评分随着降水强度的增强显著下降，偏差在0.1 mm时达峰值1.7%。（3）预报与观测降水频率均随海拔呈增长趋势，但24 h预报频率在不同高度均为负偏差，而1 h预报频率在低海拔区为正偏差，亚高海拔区为负偏差。（4）日变化方面，CMA-MESO模式没有准确模拟出伊犁河谷降水频率昼少夜多的特征。具体而言，模式对白天降水空报偏多，而对夜间降水漏报偏多，预报偏差在中午13:00—14:00和凌晨02:00—05:00最显著。

关键词: CMA-MESO, 降水评估, 暖季, 小时及日降水, 伊犁河谷

Abstract:

The performance evaluation of quantitative precipitation forecasts can provide a scientific basis for the application and improvement of such forecasts. In this study, hourly site precipitation observation data and the CMA-MESO model’s quantitative precipitation forecast data from May to September (the warm season) of 2022—2023. Using evaluation indicators such as the probability of correct rainfall, threat score (TS), false alarm ratio, and missed alarm ratio, precipitation forecast performance over the Ili River Valley was analyzed. The results revealed the following: (1) The CMA-MESO model can reasonably depict the 1 h and 24 h precipitation characteristics in the Ili River Valley during the warm season. As the precipitation intensity increases, both the forecast and observed frequencies of precipitation show a downward trend. (2) The TS for the CMA-MESO model forecast of precipitation of different intensities is closely related to the forecast bias of the accumulated precipitation probability. The 24 h precipitation forecast TS score for the range of 6.1-12.0 mm is the lowest, with the highest cumulative probability forecast bias, exceeding a mean of 2.0%. The 1 h forecast TS score significantly decreases with the enhancement of precipitation intensity, reaching a peak bias of 1.7% at 0.1 mm. (3) The frequency of the forecasted and observed precipitation shows an increasing trend with altitude. However, the 24 h forecast frequency exhibits a negative bias across all altitudes, while the 1 h forecast frequency shows a positive bias in the low-altitude areas and a negative bias in the sub-high-altitude areas. (4) In terms of diurnal variation, the CMA-MESO model did not accurately simulate the characteristic of low precipitation frequency during the day and higher frequency during the night in the Ili River Valley. Specifically, the model tends to have more false alarms for daytime precipitation and more missed alarms for nighttime precipitation. A comparison of the frequency of precipitation observations with forecasts shows that the pattern of the forecast trend from early morning to afternoon is completely opposite to the observed frequency; the most significant forecast biases occurs between 13:00—14:00 and 02:00—05:00.

Key words: CMA-MESO, evaluation of precipitation forecast, the warm season, hourly and daily precipitation, the Ili River Valley

牟欢, 陈春艳, 杨霞, 赵丽. CMA-MESO模式暖季小时及日降水预报性能评估——以伊犁河谷为例[J]. 干旱区地理, 2025, 48(2): 179-189.

MOU Huan, CHEN Chunyan, YANG Xia, ZHAO Li. Evaluation of hourly and daily precipitation forecasting performance of the CMA-MESO model in the warm season: A case of the Ili River Valley[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(2): 179-189.

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时效/h	累计降水量（R）
1	0.1≤R<2.0	2.0≤R<5.0	5.0≤R<10.0	10.0≤R
24	0.1≤R<6.1	6.1≤R<12.1	12.1≤R<24.1	24.1≤R

海拔（H）/m	观测站数/个	24 h观测频率/次·d^-1	24 h预报频率/次·d^-1	1 h观测频率/次·h^-1	1 h预报频率/次·h^-1
2000≤H	7	0.49	0.48	0.11	0.09
1000≤H<2000	83	0.37	0.34	0.07	0.07
H<1000	70	0.24	0.22	0.04	0.05