基于地理探测器的乌鲁木齐城市扩张特征与时空驱动因素分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000–6060.2021.03.29

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

新时代我国城市发展内外环境明显变化,城市扩张特征和驱动机制也呈现出新特点。以乌鲁木齐市为例,描述1990—2018年城市建设用地扩张特征,利用地理探测器研究扩张时空机制,重点分析2010年以后扩张新特点。结果表明：（1）乌鲁木齐建设用地由1990年的84.37 km²增加到2018年的361.91 km²,城市形态由南北带型演变为“T”字型结构,城市形态空间紧凑度逐渐下降;城市扩展速度稳定,扩展强度逐渐加强。城市扩张的“核心-边缘”结构经历“增强-减弱-增强”的时空变化过程。（2）城市建设用地扩张时间维度主要受人口规模、产业规模和政府推力的影响,其中人口规模作用最大,产业规模中第二产业作用略高于第三产业作用效果,2010年以后,政府推力对乌鲁木齐市城市扩张产生加速作用。（3）空间维度来说,交通类和商业类空间要素是驱动城市空间扩张的主要因素,随着时间推移,城市扩张的空间动力由少数关键因子驱动转变为多因子共同驱动。

关键词: 城市空间扩张, 建设用地, 时空驱动机制, 地理探测器, 乌鲁木齐

Abstract:

Urban spatial expansion is a classic topic for urban geography, playing an increasingly important role in scientific research and government management. As the internal and external development environments of China’s urban areas have changed significantly in the new era, urban expansion and its driving mechanism were also shifted by new factors. This paper, taking Urumqi (a city in northwest China) as an example, described the characteristics of urban construction land expansion and expounded on the spatiotemporal expansion mechanism using the Geodetector method. The results are as follows: (1) Over the past 30 years, the construction land area in Urumqi increased from 84.37 to 361.91 km². We constructed an urban space compactness index to reflect the rationality of the urban spatial boundary shape. The urban space compactness index gradually decreased over the past 30 years. This indicated that the spatial distribution is more reasonable and more efficient in the process of urban expansion. The urban expansion speed rate is 5.34%, and the urban expansion intensity rate increased from 3.57% to 8.79%. Urban expansion had a “core-periphery” structure, and its core agglomeration extent changed in different periods. (2) Urban expansion is mainly influenced by three factors: population scale, economic scale, and government policy. Population and economic agglomeration have the greatest effect on urban expansion. In economic terms, the secondary sector of the urban economy plays a slightly larger role than that of the tertiary sector on urban expansion. After 2010, new government policies accelerated urban expansion in Urumqi. (3) Transportation and commercial locations were the main spatial driving factors of urban expansion. The effects of single spatial driving factors gradually weakened, whereas the interactive effects of double spatial driving factors gradually strengthened over time. In the future, comprehensive simulations of urban expansion and resource and environmental effects should be further studied for the cities in western China.

Key words: urban expansion, construction land, temporal and spatial driving forces, geo-detector, Urumqi

石天戈,时卉. 基于地理探测器的乌鲁木齐城市扩张特征与时空驱动因素分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2021, 44(3): 867-876.

SHI Tiange,SHI Hui. Urban expansion and its temporal and spatial driving forces of Urumqi based on geo-detector method[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2021, 44(3): 867-876.

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时间驱动因素					空间驱动因素
系统层	指标层	变量	影响方向	系统层	指标层	变量	影响方向
人口水平	常驻人口*	X1	+	点要素	到机场距离	X5	-
					到火车货运站距离	X6	-
经济水平	第二产业产值	X2	+		到火车客运站距离	X7	-
	第三产业产值	X3	+		到汽车客运站距离	X8	-
					到城市商业中心距离	X9	-
政府推力	财政赤字率	X4	+		到城市中心距离	X10	-
	援疆政策效应	D	+		到城市重心距离	X11	-
				轴要素	到主要道路距离	X12	-
					到高速公路距离	X13	-
					到铁路距离	X14	-
				地理要素	海拔	X15	-
					坡度	X16	-

指标层	变量	1	2	3	4	5
到机场距离	X5	0.343	0.215	0.125	0.160	0.063
到火车货运站距离	X6	0.272^#	0.245^#	0.139	0.088^*	0.110^*
到火车客运站距离	X7	0.420	0.223	0.128	0.066	0.104
到汽车客运站距离	X8	0.356	0.268	0.102	0.125	0.035
到城市商业中心距离	X9	0.449	0.275	0.111	0.068	0.076
到城市中心距离	X10	0.355	0.257	0.133^#	0.143^#	0.023
到城市重心距离	X11	0.490	0.289	0.135	0.082	0.043
到主要道路距离	X12	0.327	0.133	0.074	0.024	0.000
到高速公路距离	X13	0.190^#	0.202^#	0.228	0.114	0.013
到铁路距离	X14	0.312	0.197	0.093	0.023	0.000
海拔	X15	0.080	0.341	0.259	0.191	0.027
坡度	X16	0.193^#	0.214^#	0.099	0.039^*	0.025^*

指标层	变量	1990—2018年			1990—2000年			2000—2010年			2010—2018年
指标层	变量	A	B	C	A	B	C	A	B	C	A	B	C
到机场距离	X5	2	9	0.1406	5	6	0.0721	0	11	0.0717	0	11	0.0753
到货运站距离	X6	2	9	0.1231	4	7	0.0656	2	9	0.0673	1	10	0.0590
到铁路客运站距离	X7	6	5	0.0788	7	4	0.0373	6	5	0.0456	3	8	0.0572
到汽车客运站距离	X8	7	4	0.0846	6	5	0.0400	6	5	0.0371	2	9	0.0550
到商业中心距离	X9	7	4	0.0589	9	2	0.0267	7	4	0.0312	6	5	0.0408
到市中心距离	X10	7	4	0.0948	6	5	0.0505	6	5	0.0472	3	8	0.0493
到城市重心距离	X11	8	3	0.0550	9	2	0.0263	7	4	0.0370	4	7	0.0431
到主要道路距离	X12	10	1	0.0763	8	3	0.0498	9	2	0.0344	2	9	0.0472
到高速距离	X13	3	8	0.1203	0	11	0.0708	1	10	0.0664	1	10	0.0550
到铁路距离	X14	9	2	0.0800	8	3	0.0522	8	3	0.0421	7	4	0.0417
海拔	X15	3	8	0.1141	3	8	0.0724	3	8	0.0616	3	8	0.0669
坡度	X16	2	9	0.1324	1	10	0.0723	1	10	0.0599	0	11	0.0532
合计/平均		33	33	0.0965	33	33	0.0529	28	38	0.0501	16	50	0.0536