喀什地区生态脆弱性时空变化及驱动力分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000–6060.2021.01.29

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

生态脆弱性评价对认识、保护和改造生态环境,促进人与自然的和谐具有重要意义。为了合理利用生态资源,在开发建设中保护环境,故研究喀什地区生态脆弱性时空动态变化,为社会经济与生态保护和谐发展提供科学依据。基于“暴露度-敏感性-恢复力”的评价框架,从自然条件和人为活动方面选取13个指标构建2000—2016年喀什地区生态脆弱性评价指标体系,采用空间主成分方法分析喀什地区生态脆弱性等级的时空变化,并用地理探测器模型分析其驱动因素。结果表明：喀什地区北部区域生态脆弱性高于南部地区,高度脆弱区面积增多且集中在叶尔羌河中下游和喀什噶尔河下游,脆弱性呈现整体增加并向东北方向转移。2000—2016年喀什地区各县市生态脆弱性最低值在塔什库尔干塔吉克自治县,其次为喀什市和泽普县,均属于微度脆弱;最高的是莎车县、伽师县和巴楚县,属于高度脆弱地区。气温、地形和植被覆盖度因素造成喀什地区南北地带生态脆弱性空间分异;耕地面积、牲畜头数的增长引起景观破碎度变大,与区域恶劣的自然环境相互耦合加重了喀什地区的生态脆弱性,导致了喀什地区整体生态环境脆弱性向东北方向扩大。

关键词: 生态脆弱性, 驱动力分析, 空间分异, 喀什地区

Abstract:

Ecological vulnerability assessment is of great significance to understand, protect, and transform the ecological environment and promote harmony between mankind and nature. To make rational use of ecological resources and protect the environment from the negative effects of development and construction, we study the temporal and spatial dynamic changes of ecological vulnerability in Kashi Prefecture, Xinjiang, China during 2000—2016. The study could provide a scientific basis for the economic and ecological protection and harmonious development of Kashi Prefecture. Based on the framework of “exposure-sensitivity-resilience”, for this study, we selected 13 indicators from natural and human aspects to construct an evaluation system to measure the ecological vulnerability in Kashi Prefecture during 2000—2016. Spatial principal component analysis was used to analyze the changes in the ecological vulnerability of Kashi Prefecture, and a geographic detector model was used to analyze the driving factors of these changes. The results of the analysis showed that the ecological vulnerability of the northern part of Kashi Prefecture was higher than that of the southern part. High vulnerability areas were increased and concentrated in the middle and lower reaches of the Yarkant River and the lower reaches of the Kashgar River. Vulnerability showed an overall increase and shifted to the northeast of the prefecture. During the study period, the lowest ecological vulnerability value among various counties and cities in Kashi Prefecture was obtained in the Taxkorgan Tajik Autonomous County. The Kashi and Zepu counties were observed to be slightly vulnerable; the highest values were obtained for the Shache, Jiashi, and Bachu counties, which belong to highly vulnerable areas. Factors such as temperature, topography, and vegetation coverage caused the spatial differentiation of ecological vulnerability in the northern and southern parts of Kashi Prefecture. An increase in the cultivated land area, livestock head, and landscape fragmentation aggravated the ecological vulnerability of Kashi Prefecture. This aggravation was coupled with the harsh natural environment in some areas; these factors led to the expansion of the overall ecological vulnerability of Kashi Prefecture to the northeast.

Key words: ecological vulnerability, driving force analysis, spatial differentiation, Kashi Prefecture

李路,孙桂丽,陆海燕,卢航,史浩伯. 喀什地区生态脆弱性时空变化及驱动力分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2021, 44(1): 277-288.

LI Lu,SUN Guili,LU Haiyan,LU Hang,SHI Haobo. Spatial-temporal variation and driving forces of ecological vulnerability in Kashi Prefecture[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2021, 44(1): 277-288.

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目标	框架	因子	指标
喀什地区生态脆弱性	暴露程度	人为干扰	人口密度
			牲畜头数
			耕地面积
			景观破碎度指数
	敏感性	地形状况	地形起伏度
			坡度
		植被状况	植被覆盖度
		气候条件	年均降水量
			年均气温
	恢复适应力	环境因素	生境质量指数
			≥10 ℃积温
			景观恢复性指数
		经济指标	人均GDP

主成分	2000年			2016年
主成分	特征值（λ）	贡献率/%	累计贡献率/%	特征值（λ）	贡献率/%	累计贡献率 /%
1	0.110	50.661	50.661	0.120	49.180	49.180
2	0.053	24.732	75.393	0.053	21.842	71.022
3	0.021	9.793	85.186	0.028	11.470	82.493
4	0.009	4.453	89.640	0.014	5.916	88.410
5	0.009	4.231	93.872	0.013	5.574	93.985
6	0.006	2.829	96.701	0.007	2.886	96.871
7	0.005	2.336	99.038	0.005	2.102	98.973

脆弱性等级	2000年		2016年		变化比例/%
脆弱性等级	面积/km²	占总面积比/%	面积/km²	占总面积比例/%	变化比例/%
潜在脆弱区	14995.25	13.17	12464.56	10.94	-2.23
微度脆弱区	13141.51	11.54	13912.92	12.22	+0.68
轻度脆弱区	24999.98	21.95	14936.23	13.12	-8.83
中度脆弱区	47870.73	42.04	29301.77	25.73	-16.31
高度脆弱区	12866.02	11.30	43258.01	37.99	+26.69

年份	脆弱区等级	2016年
年份	脆弱区等级	潜在脆弱区	微度脆弱区	轻度脆弱区	中度脆弱区	高度脆弱区
2000年	潜在脆弱区	10658.06	4002.67	271.56	51.16	11.8
	微度脆弱区	1782.90	9217.57	2007.24	94.45	39.35
	轻度脆弱区	19.67	657.27	11563.29	12059.19	700.56
	中度脆弱区	3.93	19.67	1039.04	16542.03	30266.06
	高度脆弱区	0.0	15.74	55.1	554.94	12240.24

交互类型	q值	交互类型	q值
生境质量指数∩植被覆盖度	0.196	牲畜头数∩植被覆盖度	0.200
生境质量指数∩年均气温	0.331	牲畜头数∩年均气温	0.274
生境质量指数∩景观恢复性	0.234	牲畜头数∩人口密度	0.191
耕地面积∩植被覆盖度	0.207	牲畜头数∩人均GDP	0.176
耕地面积∩年均气温	0.300	植被覆盖度∩年均降水量	0.213
耕地面积∩人口密度	0.205	植被覆盖度∩年均气温	0.116
耕地面积∩景观恢复性	0.256	植被覆盖度∩景观恢复性	0.085
耕地面积∩人均GDP	0.178	植被覆盖度∩人口密度	0.016
景观破碎度∩植被覆盖度	0.263	植被覆盖度∩地形起伏度	0.199
景观破碎度∩年均气温	0.362	植被覆盖度∩10 ℃以上积温	0.164
年均降水量∩年均气温	0.301	植被覆盖度∩坡度	0.215