边疆安全背景下新疆边境人口-社会经济-资源环境耦合协调关系研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2026.151

干旱区地理 ›› 2026, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (8): 1626-1639.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2026.151 cstr: 32274.14.ALG2026151

边疆安全背景下新疆边境人口-社会经济-资源环境耦合协调关系研究

仝雁军¹^,²^,³(), 袁露¹(), 雷军⁴

¹ 新疆财经大学经济学院，新疆乌鲁木齐 830012
² 新疆财经大学人口变动与资源环境协同发展研究中心，新疆乌鲁木齐 830012
³ 新疆财经大学新结构经济学研究中心，新疆乌鲁木齐 830012
⁴ 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所，新疆乌鲁木齐 830011

收稿日期:2026-03-23 修回日期:2026-04-17 出版日期:2026-08-25 发布日期:2026-08-21
通讯作者: 袁露（2001-），女，硕士研究生，主要从事区域经济学研究. E-mail: yuanlu200109@163.com
作者简介:仝雁军（1992-），男，博士，讲师，主要从事边疆人口安全研究. E-mail: geo_tyj@163.com
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金项目(25XRK002)

Coupled and coordinated relationships between population, socio-economic, and resource-environment in Xinjiang’s border areas under the background of border security

TONG Yanjun¹^,²^,³(), YUAN Lu¹(), LEI Jun⁴

¹ School of Economics, Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics, Urumqi 830012, Xinjiang, China
² Research Centre for Population Dynamics and Coordinated Development of Resources and the Environment, Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics, Urumqi 830012, Xinjiang, China
³ Centre for New Structural Economics, Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics, Urumqi 830012, Xinjiang, China
⁴ Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, Xinjiang, China

Received:2026-03-23 Revised:2026-04-17 Published:2026-08-25 Online:2026-08-21

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

边疆安全是国家安全的重要组成部分，而边疆地区普遍面临人口、经济与生态的复合困境，边境地区尤为明显，解析多系统耦合协调机制为促进边疆地区高质量发展提供独特研究方向。立足边疆安全视角，基于2000—2023年县级面板数据，系统分析新疆边境县域人口、社会经济与资源环境的耦合协调机制。结果表明：（1）边境县域三系统演进呈显著非均衡特征，人口系统变动较小，而社会经济系统与资源环境系统持续向好。（2）多数县域处于耦合协调的拮抗与磨合阶段，仅少数县域（如霍城县）实现初步协同。（3）各县域耦合协调度在空间上形成明显的负相关特征。（4）资源环境系统对耦合协调形成正向推动，而社会经济系统与人口系统则构成反向影响，但综合耦合协调度在研究期间内仍保持波动上升态势。（5）人口系统对资源环境系统的影响极强，社会经济系统在发展后期，人口对其产生的影响超过自身惯性的影响，人口系统与其他两者之间的关系较弱。研究结果揭示了新疆边境县域可以通过完善公共服务来稳住人口、发展特色产业、推动县域协作与设施共享、引导人口集聚并严守生态阈值，可为该地区在生态约束下实现人口的合理集聚提供科学依据。

关键词: 边疆安全, 复合系统, 耦合协调, 新疆

Abstract:

Frontier security is fundamental to national security, however, frontier regions often face complex demographic, economic, and ecological challenges, particularly in border areas. Analyzing coordination mechanisms among multiple systems provides a valuable perspective for advancing high-quality development in these regions. Drawing on a frontier security perspective and using county-level panel data from 2000 to 2023, this study systematically evaluates the coordination among population, socio-economic, and resource-environment systems in Xinjiang’s border counties. The results reveal the following: (1) Pronounced imbalances in the evolution of the three systems, population fluctuations are relatively minimal, whereas both socio-economic and resource-environment conditions continue to improve. (2) Most counties remain in the antagonistic and adjustment phases of coupling and coordination, with only a few (including Huocheng County), achieving preliminary synergy. (3) Furthermore, the level of coupling and coordination across counties demonstrates a significant negative spatial correlation. (4) Notably, resourc-environment systems contribute positively to coupling and coordination, while socio-economic and population systems exert a countervailing influence. Over the course of study, the comprehensive coupling coordination degree, however, showed a fluctuating upward trend. (5) Population strongly affects resource-environment, while in later stages, socio-economic systems have a greater impact on population than population inertia itself. Conversely, the interaction between population and the other two systems remains relatively weak. To address these challenges, the study recommends improving regional education, healthcare, and housing to support the rational population concentration, developing unique local industries, and designing cooperative mechanisms that integrate population, industry, and ecological development.

Key words: border security, integrated systems, coordination and collaboration, Xinjiang

仝雁军, 袁露, 雷军. 边疆安全背景下新疆边境人口-社会经济-资源环境耦合协调关系研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2026, 49(8): 1626-1639.

TONG Yanjun, YUAN Lu, LEI Jun. Coupled and coordinated relationships between population, socio-economic, and resource-environment in Xinjiang’s border areas under the background of border security[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(8): 1626-1639.

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系统层	准则层	指标层	属性	单位	权重
人口	规模结构	年末总人口	+	10⁴人	0.0902
		人口密度	+	人·km^-2	0.0568
		65岁及以上人口占比	-	%	0.0896
		人口自然增长率	+	%	0.0721
	人口素质	普通中学在校学生数	+	人	0.0396
		每万人拥有医院床位数	+	个	0.0295
		社会服务机构床位数	+	个	0.0312
社会经济	基础支撑	粮食总产量	+	t	0.0259
	基础支撑	一般公共预算收入	+	10⁴元	0.0147
	经济发展	固定资产投资	+	10⁴元	0.0181
		第二产业增加值	+	10⁴元	0.0217
		第三产业增加值	+	10⁴元	0.0367
		社会消费品零售总额	+	10⁴元	0.0228
		人均地区生产总值	+	元	0.0330
		夜间灯光指数	+	-	0.0390
	社会发展	道路密度	+	km·km^-2	0.0288
	社会发展	边境线边防派出所数量	+	-	0.0121
资源环境	资源本底	植被覆盖度	+	%	0.0623
		年末耕地面积	+	km²	0.0450
		年均地下水水位	-	m	0.1049
	环境污染	地表SO₂质量浓度	-	μg·m^-2	0.0637
	环境污染	PM_2.5排放量	-	μg·m^-2	0.0627

响应变量	冲击变量
响应变量	预测期	POP	ECO	RES
POP	1	1.000	0.000	0.000
POP	4	0.956	0.004	0.008
POP	7	0.910	0.034	0.056
POP	10	0.897	0.047	0.056
ECO	1	0.050	0.950	0.000
ECO	4	0.503	0.493	0.004
ECO	7	0.560	0.431	0.009
ECO	10	0.554	0.432	0.015
RES	1	0.100	0.018	0.882
RES	4	0.448	0.185	0.367
RES	7	0.424	0.246	0.331
RES	10	0.443	0.238	0.319

边疆安全背景下新疆边境人口-社会经济-资源环境耦合协调关系研究

Coupled and coordinated relationships between population, socio-economic, and resource-environment in Xinjiang’s border areas under the background of border security

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