中国北方农牧交错带中段新型城镇化与农业生态系统服务耦合分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.505

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

北方农牧交错带是中国重要的生态过渡区域，新型城镇化发展与农业生态系统服务之间的协调程度不仅影响北方农牧交错带区域资源利用效率与生态稳定性，也决定着这一生态脆弱区的可持续发展潜力。以中国北方农牧交错带中段26个区县为研究对象，构建涵盖人口、经济、社会和农业4个维度的新型城镇化评价体系，基于土地利用数据建立农业生态系统服务价值测算模型，运用冷热点分析、耦合协调度模型和地理探测器等方法，系统剖析2010—2023年研究区新型城镇化水平与农业生态系统服务价值的时空格局及其互动机制。结果表明：（1） 2010—2023年研究区新型城镇化水平显著上升，农业生态系统服务价值波动下降，均呈“东高西低”的空间分异特征。（2）新型城镇化与农业生态系统服务耦合协调水平总体呈现“低水平徘徊、两极分化加剧”的态势，所有县域均未能进入协调发展阶段。（3）地理探测器分析表明，耦合协调度空间分异的驱动机制总体呈现出不同程度的“农业发展水平主导”模式，人均耕地面积和单位面积耕地农机效率共同构成驱动格局的主要因素。驱动因子交互探测进一步揭示，主导交互组合由“经济-农业”深化至“农业内部”，最终转向“资源-自然”的协同约束。研究对深入理解新型城镇化发展与农业生态环境的复杂互动机制具有重要意义，为制定差异化的空间治理政策提供科学依据，以便协同推进经济社会发展和农业生态环境保护。

关键词: 新型城镇化, 农业生态系统服务价值, 耦合协调度, 地理探测器, 北方农牧交错带

Abstract:

The northern agropastoral ecotone serves as a critical ecological transition zone in China. The coordination level between new-type urbanization development and agricultural ecosystem service influences regional resource use efficiency and ecological stability, as well as its sustainable development potential. Focusing on 26 counties in the central northern agropastoral ecotone of China as the study area, this study constructs an evaluation system for new-type urbanization across four dimensions: population, economy, society, and agriculture. Based on land use data, an agricultural ecosystem service value assessment model is developed. Hotspot analysis, the coupling coordination degree model, and the geographical detector are employed to systematically analyze the spatiotemporal patterns and interaction mechanisms of new-type urbanization levels and agricultural ecosystem service values from 2010 to 2023. The results indicate that (1) The new-type urbanization level in the study area from 2010 to 2023 rose significantly, while agricultural ecosystem service values exhibited a fluctuating downward trend, with both variables maintaining a consistent “high in the east, low in the west” spatial distribution. (2) The coupling coordination between new-type urbanization and agricultural ecosystem services is characterized by “low-level stagnation and intensifying polarization”, with no counties yet achieving a state of coordinated development. (3) Geodetector analysis reveals that the driving mechanism is predominantly an “agricultural development-led” model, with per capita arable land and agricultural mechanization efficiency per unit area serving as the primary drivers. Interaction detection further shows an evolutionary shift in dominant factors from “economic-agricultural” to “intra-agricultural” synergies, ultimately resulting in a synergistic constraint driven by “resource-natural” factors. The results provide critical insights into the complex interactions between new-type urbanization and the agroecological environment, offering a scientific basis for formulating differentiated spatial governance policies that coordinately advance socio-economic development and agricultural ecological conservation.

Key words: new-type urbanization, agricultural ecosystem service value, coupling coordination degree, geographical detector, northern agro-pastoral ecotone

宁雅萱, 尹豪, 李金诺. 中国北方农牧交错带中段新型城镇化与农业生态系统服务耦合分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2026, 49(7): 1457-1469.

NING Yaxuan, YIN Hao, LI Jinnuo. Coupling analysis of new-type urbanization and agricultural ecosystem services in the middle section of the northern agro-pastoral ecotone in China[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(7): 1457-1469.

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类别层	指标层	单位	属性	指标解释	功能权重
人口城镇化	常住人口城镇化率	%	正向	城镇常住人口数占总人口数比例	0.29
	第二、第三产业就业人数比重	%	正向	第二产业、第三产业就业人数占总就业人数比例	0.29
经济城镇化	人均GDP	元·人^-1	正向	-	0.26
	城乡收入平衡指数	%	正向	城乡人均可支配收入比
	第二、第三产业产值占比	%	正向	第二产业、第三产业产值占总产值比例
	人均社会消费品零售额	元·人^-1	正向	-
社会城镇化	卫生机构床位数	张	正向	-	0.24
	普通中学在校人数	人	正向	-
	全社会用电量	10⁴ kWh	正向	-
农业现代化	人均粮食产量	kg·人^-1	正向	-	0.21
	设施农业占地面积	hm²	正向	-
	人均农林牧渔产值	元·人^-1	正向	-

耦合协调度	耦合协调分级	耦合协调阶段
0.0~0.1	极度失调危机型	失调阶段
0.1~0.2	严重失调衰退型
0.2~0.3	显著失调衰退型
0.3~0.4	轻微失调衰退型	过渡阶段
0.4~0.5	濒临失调过渡型
0.5~0.6	勉强协调过渡型
0.6~0.7	基本协调发展型
0.7~0.8	良好协调发展型	协调阶段
0.8~0.9	优质协调发展型
0.9~1.0	完美协调示范型

年份	因素类型	驱动因子	解释力	P
2010	社会经济类	人口密度	0.284	0.000^**
		人均固定资产投资	0.092	0.000^**
		人均存款余额	0.223	0.000^**
	农业发展类	单位面积耕地农机效率	0.203	0.000^**
	农业发展类	人均耕地面积	0.348	0.000^**
	自然条件类	年平均气温	0.133	0.000^**
	自然条件类	干燥度	0.232	0.000^**
2015	社会经济类	人口密度	0.146	0.000^**
		人均固定资产投资	0.159	0.000^**
		人均存款余额	0.132	0.000^**
	农业发展类	单位面积耕地农机效率	0.516	0.000^**
	农业发展类	人均耕地面积	0.346	0.000^**
	自然条件类	年平均气温	0.055	0.000^**
	自然条件类	干燥度	0.112	0.000^**
2020	社会经济类	人口密度	0.119	0.000^**
		人均固定资产投资	0.128	0.000^**
		人均存款余额	0.168	0.000^**
	农业发展类	单位面积耕地农机效率	0.424	0.000^**
	农业发展类	人均耕地面积	0.402	0.000^**
	自然条件类	年平均气温	0.171	0.000^**
	自然条件类	干燥度	0.189	0.000^**
2023	社会经济类	人口密度	0.158	0.000^**
		人均固定资产投资	0.130	0.000^**
		人均存款余额	0.137	0.000^**
	农业发展类	单位面积耕地农机效率	0.278	0.000^**
	农业发展类	人均耕地面积	0.337	0.000^**
	自然条件类	年平均气温	0.096	0.000^**
		干燥度	0.263	0.000^**