河西走廊农田灌溉面积阈值分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2023.560

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

明晰区域农业水资源可承载灌溉面积能力，约束农业用水和控制农田灌溉面积扩张是解决河西走廊地区水资源可持续利用问题的战略选择。利用水量平衡原理和逐步回归模型，以当地水资源量、水资源利用情况、灌溉水有效利用系数等资料为基础，计算出河西走廊在不同发展情景下的水资源可开发利用量和可承载灌溉面积阈值。结果表明：（1）在经济优先发展情景下，河西走廊地区可开发利用水资源总量为48.22×10⁸ m³，可承载灌溉面积阈值为58.92×10⁴~67.16×10⁴ hm²。（2）在生态优先发展情景下，可开发利用水资源总量为34.44×10⁸ m³，可承载灌溉面积阈值为37.90×10⁴~43.20×10⁴ hm²。（3）在经济兼顾生态发展情景下，可开发利用水资源总量为41.33×10⁸ m³，可承载灌溉面积阈值为48.41×10⁴~55.18×10⁴ hm²。（4）微灌面积占比与灌溉水有效利用系数呈显著正相关关系。研究结果可为河西走廊地区确定合理灌溉面积、优化水土规划和配水制度提供依据。

关键词: 灌溉面积, 阈值, 农业, 水资源管理, 河西走廊

Abstract:

Determining the capacity of regional agricultural water resources to support irrigated areas, restraining agricultural water usage, and controlling the expansion of irrigated farmland are crucial strategies for solving sustainable water use problems in the Hexi Corridor of northwest Gansu Province, China. In this paper, we applied the water balance principle and utilized the stepwise regression model to calculate the thresholds of water resource availability and the carrying capacity of the irrigated areas for the Hexi Corridor in different development scenarios. We used information on local water resources, water resource use, and the effective utilization coefficient of irrigation water. The analysis shows the following results: (1) Under the economic priority development scenario, the total exploitable water resources in the Hexi Corridor region is 48.22×10⁸ m³, and the threshold value of the carrying irrigated area is 58.92×10⁴-67.16×10⁴ hm². (2) Under the ecological priority development scenario, the total exploitable water resources are 34.44×10⁸ m³, and the threshold value of the carrying irrigated area is 37.90×10⁴-43.20×10⁴ hm². (3) Under the economic and ecological development scenario, the total exploitable water resources are 41.33×10⁸ m³, and the threshold of the carrying irrigated area is 48.41×10⁴-55.18×10⁴ hm². (4) The proportion of the micro-irrigation area and the effective utilization coefficient of irrigation water have a significant positive correlation. This study can provide a basis for determining a reasonable irrigation area and optimizing the Hexi Corridor’s soil and water planning and distribution system.

Key words: irrigated area, thresholds, agriculture, water management, Hexi Corridor

吴梦雨, 李冬杰, 韩玉国, 邱业, 曲芝旭. 河西走廊农田灌溉面积阈值分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2024, 47(7): 1165-1174.

WU Mengyu, LI Dongjie, HAN Yuguo, QIU Ye, QU Zhixu. Thresholds of irrigated farmland area in the Hexi Corridor region[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(7): 1165-1174.

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年份	农田灌溉用水量	林牧渔畜用水量	工业用水量	城镇公共用水量	居民生活用水量	生态环境用水量	总用水量
2001	63.56	5.02	4.22	0.39	1.17	-	74.36
2002	66.21	5.03	4.73	0.36	1.15	-	76.75
2003	64.14	5.33	3.78	0.35	1.19	0.08	74.88
2004	63.65	5.62	3.57	0.38	1.21	0.08	74.53
2005	64.33	3.81	3.93	0.39	1.94	2.74	77.13
2006	63.54	4.09	4.12	0.41	2.05	2.69	76.89
2007	64.78	4.51	3.62	0.44	2.05	1.65	77.03
2008	64.08	4.56	3.64	0.44	2.13	1.68	76.53
2009	62.27	4.88	3.80	0.46	1.39	1.70	74.48
2010	63.25	5.00	4.04	0.46	1.43	1.72	75.88
2011	63.14	4.63	4.36	0.44	1.43	1.69	76.58
2012	63.39	4.53	6.40	0.46	1.45	1.70	77.91
2013	65.69	5.80	5.12	0.73	1.10	1.07	79.52
2014	64.60	4.74	5.10	0.78	1.13	1.09	78.41
2015	63.30	5.67	4.71	0.74	1.14	1.91	77.47
2016	61.31	5.71	4.39	0.74	1.16	2.85	76.16
2017	59.29	5.84	3.30	0.79	1.15	3.45	73.82
2018	57.45	5.45	3.25	0.88	1.21	3.31	71.53
2019	55.86	5.58	3.06	0.68	1.22	2.88	69.27
2020	54.82	4.58	2.71	0.67	1.63	8.08	72.53

用水情景	可利用水资源总量	林牧渔畜需水量	工业用水需水量	城镇公共需水量	居民生活需水量	农田灌溉可用水量
经济发展优先情景	48.22	4.58	2.71	0.67	1.63	38.63
生态发展优先情景	34.44	4.58	2.71	0.67	1.63	24.85
经济兼顾生态发展情景	41.33	4.58	2.71	0.67	1.63	31.74

影响因子	参数估计	t值	P值
微灌占比	0.267	9.179	0.000^**
喷滴灌占比	-0.192	-1.860	0.088
低压管灌占比	-0.644	-1.357	0.200
其他节水占比	0.092	0.444	0.665
实际灌溉面积	0.225	1.086	0.299

年份	灌溉水有效利用系数实际值	灌溉水有效利用系数预测值	相对误差/%
2006	0.473	0.496	4.94
2007	0.486	0.499	2.65
2008	0.490	0.501	2.16
2009	0.499	0.503	0.89
2010	0.514	0.503	-2.11
2011	0.518	0.507	-2.12
2012	0.523	0.511	-2.31
2013	0.531	0.515	-3.01
2014	0.537	0.525	-2.33
2015	0.541	0.539	-0.29
2016	0.547	0.554	1.22
2017	0.553	0.556	0.45
2018	0.560	0.562	0.44
2019	0.565	0.568	0.50
2020	0.570	0.574	0.63

微灌占比情景	灌溉水有效利用系数	单位面积灌溉用水量/m³·hm^-2	经济发展优先情景		生态发展优先情景		经济兼顾生态发展情景
微灌占比情景	灌溉水有效利用系数	单位面积灌溉用水量/m³·hm^-2	农田灌溉可用水量/10⁸ m³	可承载灌溉面积阈值/10⁴ hm²	农田灌溉可用水量/10⁸ m³	可承载灌溉面积阈值/10⁴ hm²	农田灌溉可用水量/10⁸ m³	可承载灌溉面积阈值/10⁴ hm²
微灌占比30%	0.572	6556	38.63	58.92	24.85	37.90	31.74	48.41
微灌占比45%	0.612	6127	38.63	63.05	24.85	40.56	31.74	51.80
微灌占比60%	0.652	5752	38.63	67.16	24.85	43.20	31.74	55.18