石羊河流域≥10 ℃积温时空变化特征

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2020.03.04

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用1960—2017年石羊河流域5个气象站逐日平均气温资料，采用滑动平均方法，确定了≥10 ℃积温的界限；通过运用多元线性回归、均方差 (σ)、线性趋势系数、累计距平和信噪比等方法，分析了石羊河流域≥10 ℃积温的时空变化特征。结果表明：石羊河流域≥10 ℃积温具有明显地域特征，≥10 ℃积温的均值和极值均为荒漠区高于绿洲平原区，绿洲平原区高于山区，≥10 ℃积温的空间分布与所受天气系统以及经、纬度和海拔高度的关系非常密切。≥10 ℃积温正常年份最多，概率超过65%，依次向两端迅速递减。年、年代≥10 ℃积温呈显著升高趋势。≥10 ℃积温主要在5～9月，7月为高峰值。≥10 ℃积温气候突变全流域、民勤和天祝在1996年，永昌、凉州和古浪在1997年。石羊河流域≥10 ℃积温升高使喜凉作物种植面积缩小，生育期缩短，不利于高产的形成；而使喜温作物种植面积扩大，生育期延长，有利于高产和高品质的形成。本研究将对现代农业结构规划、农作物品种调整以及农业的定量化评估具有重要意义。

关键词: ≥10 ℃积温, 时空变化, 多元线性回归, 石羊河流域

Abstract:

Accumulative temperature is an important climate resource and crop growth and development index.In this paper,using daily average temperatures of five meteorological stations in Shiyang River Basin,Gansu Province,China during 1960-2017,acumulative ≥10 ℃ temperature was determined using the sliding average method.Spatiotemporal changes in acumulative ≥10 ℃ temperature were analyzed via multiple linear regression,mean square deviation (σ),linear trend coefficient,cumulative anomaly,and signal-to-noise ratio methods.The results showed that the acumulative ≥10 ℃ temperature of Shiyang River Basin has obvious regional characteristics.In the desert area,the average and extreme values of acumulative ≥10 ℃ temperature were higher than those in the oasis plain,and the temperature in the oasis plain was higher than that in the mountainous area.The regional distribution of acumulative ≥10 ℃ temperature was closely related to the weather system,longitude,latitude,and altitude.In normal years,acumulative ≥10 ℃ temperature was the most common,the probability of which exceeded 65%,which was the ends of decline.Annual and decadal acumulative ≥10 ℃ temperatures showed a significant upward trend.The acumulative ≥10 ℃ temperature mainly occurs from May to September,with the highest peak in July.Abrupt changes in acumulative ≥10 ℃ temperature occurred in the entire basin,including Minqin and Tianzhu in 1996,and Liangzhou,Yongchang,and Gulang in 1997.When the acumulative ≥10 ℃ temperature in the Shiyang River Basin rises,the planting zones decrease and the growth period becomes shorter,which is not favorable for the high yields of cool-weather crops and while it is favorable for the warm-weather crops.This paper revealed new pattern of heat resources and its impacts on agriculture in Shiyang River Basin.This is very important for modern agricultural planning,crop variety adjustment,and agricultural quantitative evaluation.

Key words: ≥10 ℃ accumulative temperature, spatio-temporal change, multiple linear regression, Shiyang River Basin

杨晓玲, 丁文魁, 孙占峰, 王鹤龄.

石羊河流域≥10 ℃积温时空变化特征 [J]. 干旱区地理, 2020, 43(3): 584-591.

YANG Xiao-ling, DING Wen-kui, SUN Zhan-feng, WANG He-ling.

Spatial and temporal change characteristics of ≥10 ℃ accumulative temperature in Shiyang River Basin [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2020, 43(3): 584-591.

参考文献［31］

［1］	中国气象局气象干部培训学院.气候变化第六次评估参阅材料(二)［M］.中国气象局图书馆,2018:11.［Training College of Meteorological Cadres of China Meteorological Administration.Reference material for the sixth assessment of climate change(II)［M］.Library of China Meteorological Administration,2018:11.］
［2］	郭建平.气候变化对中国农业生产的影响研究进展［J］.应用气象学报,2015,26(1): 1-11.［GUO Jianping.Research advances in impacts of climate change on agricultural production in China［J］.Journal of Applied Meteorology Science,2015,26(1):1-11.］
［3］	覃志豪,唐华俊,李文娟,等.气候变化对农业和粮食生产影响的研究进展和发展方向［J］.中国农业资源与区划,2013,34(5):1-7.［QIN Zhihao,TANG Huajun,LI Wenjuan,et al.Research progress and development direction of the impact of climate change on agriculture and grain production in China［J］.China Agricultural Resources and Regionalization,2013,34(5):1-7.］
［4］	刘德祥,董安祥,邓振镛.中国西北地区气候变暖对农业的影响［J］.自然资源学报,2005,20(1):119-125.［LIU Dexiang,DONG Anxiang,DENG Zhenyong.Impact of climate warming on agriculture in northwest China［J］.Journal of Natural Resources,2005,20(1):119-125.］
［5］	孙杨,张雪芹,郑度.气候变暖对西北干旱区农业气候资源的影响［J］.自然资源学报,2010,25(7):1153-1162.［SUN Yang,ZHANG Xueqin,ZHENG Du.The impact of climate warming on agricultural climate resources in the arid region of northwest China［J］.Journal of Natural Resources,2010,25(7):1153-1162.］
［6］	孟艳灵,殷淑燕,杨锋,等.晋陕蒙地区≥10 ℃积温的时空变化特征［J］.中国农业气象,2016,37(6):615-622.［MENG Yanling,YIN Shuyan,YANG Feng,et al.Spatial and temporal distribution of accumulated temperature above 10 ℃ in ShanxiShaanxiInner Mongolia region［J］.Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2016,37(6):615-622.］
［7］	朱红蕊,尹嫦姣,张洪玲,等.黑龙江省≥10 ℃积温时空变化特征［J］.冰川冻土,2015,37(6):1473-1479.［ZHU Hongrui,YIN Changjiao,ZHANG Hongling,et al.The spatial-temporal change of active accumulated temperature of ≥10 ℃ in Heilongjiang Province［J］.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2015,37(6):1473-1479.］
［8］	戴声佩,李海亮,罗红霞,等.1960—2011年华南地区界限温度10℃积温时空变化分析［J］.地理学报,2014,69(5):650-660.［DAI Shengpei,LI Hailiang,LUO Hongxia,et al.The spatio-temporal change of active accumulated temperature ≥10 ℃ in southern China from 1960 to 2011［J］.Acta Geographica Sinica,2014,69(5):650-660.］
［9］	柏秦凤,霍治国,李世奎,等.1978年前、后中国≥10 ℃年积温对比［J］.应用生态学报,2008,19(8):1810-1816.［BAI Qinfeng,HUO Zhiguo,LI Shikui,et al.Comparison of accumulated temperature above 10 ℃ before and after the year 1978 in China［J］.Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2008,19(8):1810-1816.］
［10］	张厚瑄,张翼.中国活动积温对气候变暖的响应［J］.地理学报,1994,49(1):27-35.［ZHANG Houxuan,ZHANG Yi.Response of active accumulated temperature to climate warming in China［J］.Acta Geographica Sinica,1994,49(1):27-35.］
［11］	安娟,杜志国,杨晓波,等.气候变暖背景下辽阳市≥10 ℃活动积温变化特征剖析［J］.现代农业科技,2014,(23):274-275.［AN Juan,DU Zhiguo,YANG Xiaobo,et al.Analysis of change characteristics of active accumulated temperature ≥10 ℃ under background of climate warming in Liaoyang City［J］.Modern Agricultural Science and Technology,2014，(23):274-275.］
［12］	霍金兰,张旭辉,施英,等.江苏省近50 a 10 ℃、15 ℃积温变化及其对农业的影响［C］//第十届长三角气象科技论坛论文集,2013:1-7.［HUO Jinlan,ZHANG Xuhui,SHI Ying,et al.Accumulated temperature change of 10 ℃ and 15 ℃ and its impact on agriculture in Jiangsu Province in recent 50 years［C］//Papers Collection of the 10th Yangtze River Delta Meteorological Science and Technology Forum,2013:1-7.］
［13］	兰晓波,方锋,杨晓玲,等.河西走廊东部近52 a热量资源变化特征［J］.安徽农业科学,2012,40(33):16272-16274,16349.［LAN Xiaobo,FANG Feng,YANG Xiaoling,et al.Variation characteristics of thermal resources in east Hexi Corridor in recent 50 years［J］.Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences,2012,40(33):16272-16274,16349.］
［14］	杨永龙,王润元,刘明春,等.高海拔山区油菜生育期对积温的响应及其在区划中的应用［J］.江苏农业科学,2012,40(5):55-58.［YANG Yonglong,WANG Runyuan,LIU Mingchun,et al.Response of rapeseed growth period to accumulated temperature in high altitude mountainous areas and its application in high altitude mountainous areas［J］.Jiangsu Agricultural Sciences,2012,40(5):55-58.］
［15］	白肇烨,徐国昌,孙学筠,等.中国西北天气［M］.北京:气象出版社,1991:258-357.［BAI Zhaoye,XU Guochang,SUN Xuejun,et al.Weather over northwest China［M］.Beijing:Meteorological Press,1991:258-357.］
［16］	张雪芹,孙杨,郑度,等.中国干旱区温度带界线对气候变暖的响应［J］.地理学报,2011,66(9):1166-1178.［ZHANG Xueqin,SUN Yang,ZHENG Du,et al.Responses of temperature zone boundaries in the arid region of China to climatic warming［J］.Acta Geographica Sinica,2011,66(9):1166-1178.］
［17］	曲曼丽.农业气候实习指导［M］.北京:北京农业大学出版社,1991.［QU Manli.Practical guidance to agricultural climatology［M］.Beijing:Beijing Agriculture University Press,1991.］
［18］	徐建华.现代地理学中的数学方法［M］.2版.北京:高等教育出版社,2002.［XU Jianhua.Mathematical methods in contemporary geography［M］.2nd ed.Beijing:Higher Education Press,2002.］
［19］	于贵瑞,何洪林,刘新安,等.中国陆地生态信息空间化技术研究(I)-气象/气候信息的空间化技术途径［J］.自然资源学报,2004,19(4):537-544.［YU Guirui,HE Honglin,LIU Xin’an,et al.Study on spatialization technology of terrestrial eco-information in China(I):The approach of spatialization in meteorology/climate information［J］.Journal of Natural Resources,2004,19(4):537-544.］
［20］	刘新安,于贵瑞,范辽生,等.中国陆地生态信息空间化技术研究(III)—温度、降水等气候要素［J］.自然资源学报,2004,19(6):818-825.［LIU Xin’an,YU Guirui,FAN Liaosheng,et al.Study on spatialization technology of terrestrial eco-information in China(III):Temperature and precipitation［J］.Journal of Natural Resources,2004,19(6):818-825.］
［21］	邹京发.运用平均值和均方差判断指标的异常波动［J］.冶金动力,1981,(1):55-56.［ZOU Jingfa.Abnormal fluctuation by using mean value and mean square deviation［J］.Metallurgical Power,1981,(1):55-56.］
［22］	魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术［M］.2版.北京:气象出版社,2007.［WEI Fengying.Modern climatic statistical diagnosis and prediction technology ［M］.2nd ed.Beijing:Meteorological Press,2007.］
［23］	LIVEZEY R E,CHEN W Y.Statistical field significance and its determination by Monte Carlo techniques［J］.Monthly Weather Review,1983,111(1):46-59.
［24］	杜军,李春,廖健,等.近45 a拉萨浅层地温对气候变化的响应［J］.气象,2007,33(10):61-67.［DU Jun,LI Chun,LIAO Jian,et al.Respones of climatic change on soil temperature at shallow layers in Lhasa from 1961 to 2005［J］.Meteorological Monthly,2007,33(10):61-67.］
［25］	黄嘉佑.气候状态变化趋势与突变分析［J］.气象,1995,21(7):54-57.［HUANG Jiayou.Climate change trend and mutation analysis［J］.Meteorological Monthly,1995,21(7):54-57.］
［26］	杨晓玲,丁文魁,刘明春,等.河西走廊东部近50 a气温变化特征及其对比分析［J］.干旱区资源与环境,2011,25(8):76-81.［YANG Xiaoling,DING Wenkui,LIU Mingchun,et al.Change characteristics of temperature in eastern Hexi Corridor in recent 50 years［J］.Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2011,25(8):76-81.］
［27］	刘明春,张强,邓振镛,等.气候变化对石羊河流域农业生产的影响［J］.地理科学,2009,29(5):727-732.［LIU Mingchun,ZHANG Qiang,DENG Zhenyong,et al.Impacts of climate change on agricultural production in Shiyang River Basin［J］.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2009,29(5):727-732.］
［28］	王润元,张强,王耀林,等.西北干旱区玉米对气候变暖的响应［J］.植物学报,2004,46(12):1387-1392.［WANG Runyuan,ZHANG Qiang,WANG Yaolin,et al.Response of corn to climate warming in arid areas in northwest China［J］.Acta Botanica Sinica,2004,46(12):1387-1392.］
［29］	孙杨.西北干旱区气候变化对农业生产的影响［D］.北京:中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,2010.［SUN Yang.Climate change and its impact on the agricultural production in the arid region of northwest China［D］.Beijing:Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,2010.］
［30］	云雅如,方修琦,王丽岩,等.我国作物种植界线对气候变暖的适应性响应［J］.作物杂志,2007,23(3):20-23.［YUN Yaru,FANG Xiuqi,WANG Liyan,et al.China’s crop planting line adaptive response to climate warming［J］.Crops,2007,23(3):20-23.］
［31］	张强,邓振镛,赵映东,等.全球气候变化对我国西北地区农业的影响［J］.生态学报,2008,28(3):1210-1218.［ZHANG Qiang,DENG Zhenyong,ZHAO Yingdong,et al.The impacts of global climatic change on the agriculture in northwest China［J］.Acta Ecologica Sinica,2008,28(3):1210-1218.］

[1]	康利刚, 曹生奎, 曹广超, 严莉, 陈链璇, 李文斌, 赵浩然. 青海湖流域地表温度时空变化特征研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2023, 46(7): 1084-1097.
[2]	夏文浩, 王铭扬, 姜磊. 新疆农业碳排放强度时空变化趋势与收敛分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2023, 46(7): 1145-1154.
[3]	陈跃萍, 武胜利, 赵昕, 张艺加. 近60 a哈密市极端气温时空变化特征[J]. 干旱区地理, 2023, 46(6): 868-879.
[4]	张勇军, 杨余辉, 胡义成, 冯先成, 杨景燕. 新疆喀什河流域水化学时空变化特征及灌溉适应性评价[J]. 干旱区地理, 2023, 46(4): 583-594.
[5]	李娜,武永利,赵桂香,钱锦霞,李芬,赵海英,韩普. 近60 a山西省极端气温事件的年际变化及其对区域增暖的响应[J]. 干旱区地理, 2023, 46(3): 337-348.
[6]	任涛涛,李双双,段克勤,何锦屏. 黄土高原热浪型和缺水型骤旱时空变化特征及其影响因素[J]. 干旱区地理, 2023, 46(3): 360-370.
[7]	高彦哲, 阿拉腾图娅, 昙娜, 敖日格乐. 2000—2020年蒙古高原湖泊变化及其影响因素分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2023, 46(2): 191-200.
[8]	邓甜甜, 耿广坡, 杨睿, 张保. 1980—2020年渭河流域高温热浪时空变化特征[J]. 干旱区地理, 2023, 46(2): 211-221.
[9]	郭方君, 马全林, 张锦春, 李得禄, 袁宏波, 陈芳, 魏林源, 张德魁. 石羊河流域荒漠区植被类型、分布和数量特征[J]. 干旱区地理, 2023, 46(11): 1848-1857.
[10]	亚夏尔·艾斯克尔, 玉素甫江·如素力. 基于多端元解混模型的博斯腾湖区域植被和水域时空变化特征及趋势分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2023, 46(10): 1622-1631.
[11]	周丹, 保广裕, 苏献锋, 王力, 李宝华. 1961—2020年青海高原日照时数时空变化特征[J]. 干旱区地理, 2023, 46(1): 36-46.
[12]	曹彦超,焦美玲,秦拓,郭桐. 1973—2020年甘肃河东夏半年降水变化特征及影响因素分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2022, 45(6): 1695-1706.
[13]	高婧,杨涛,李海燕,井立红,刘振新,曾华. 近60 a新疆塔城地区不同相态降水时空变化特征[J]. 干旱区地理, 2022, 45(5): 1347-1356.
[14]	王瑾杰,丁建丽,张子鹏. 基于遥感生态指数的吐哈地区生态环境变化研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2022, 45(5): 1591-1603.
[15]	苏玥,张存厚,阿木尔萨那,李轲. 1981—2018年内蒙古典型草原季节性冻土对气候变化的响应[J]. 干旱区地理, 2022, 45(3): 684-694.